A Performance Comparison of a Technical Trading System with ARIMA and VAR Models for Soybean Complex Prices

Both technical trading systems and standard economic time series models are based upon the assumption that current market prices are not independent of past market behavior. This study examines the relative performance of a Channel (CHL) technical trading system with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in forecasting soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil prices over the period January 1984-June 1988. ARIMA and VAR models are developed over the time period January 1974-December 1983 and then are used to forecast out-of-sample from January 1984 through June 1988. The CHL trading signals and out-of-sample two month ahead forecasts from the ARIMA and VAR models are used to take positions in the futures markets. The resulting trading returns are evaluated to determine the relative economic performance of the models within the soybean complex. Of these models, the CHL technical trading system exhibits consistent trading returns across the soybean complex. Furthermore, the CHL technical trading system is robust across the two subperiods of the out-of-sample period, one of which is characterized by rising commodity prices and the other by declining commodity prices. These results suggest that in the short run, regularities within a single price series can be used to forecast prices within the soybean complex. Further, technical trading system prove more useful in utilizing such regularities for forecasting than the autoregressive or moving average processes found in either ARIMA or VAR modeling techniques

The Vehicle, 1968, Vol. 10 no. 2

Vol. 10, No. 2 Table of Contents 1st Prize, ArtCorner of My MindGerry Moreheadpage 4 #1Clyde Simspage 5 Aesthetics for a VagabondByron Nelsonpage 5 1st Prize, Short StorySteam HeatCharles Whitepage 6 a drawingSally Roachpage 6 an untitled themeCatherine Waitepage 8 MoodKevin Sheapage 9 1st Prize, PoetryHome ThoughtsJane Careypage 10 an untitled poemCatherine Waitepage 11 a drawingSally Roachpage 11 GraceJames T. Jonespage 12 LonelinessSally Roachpage 14 Love, JimmyAstaire Pappaspage 14 CapturedJeff Nelsonpage 15 Winnie Davis Neely AwardUnconcernRoger Zulaufpage 17 an untitled poemDavid N. Deckerpage 17 Morality and American Foreign Policy: The Ever-widening GapBruce L. Berrypage 18 La LibertadChris Holavespage 19 1966Roger Zulaufpage 19 SinThomas W. Phippspage 20 a drawingRoger Perkinspage 20 Summer SweatJerry J. Carterpage 20 1st Prize, EssayCuriosityThomas W. Phippspage 21 A Bottle of DreamsMaurice Snivelypage 21 Chalk DustCatherine Waitepage 22 Diffused Existence or, a Meager Attempt at Helping You Over the Rough SpotsJan Gerlachpage 22 To *e.e.Paula Bresnanpage 22 A PoemThomas W. Phippspage 22 Beach PartyJerol Mikeworthpage 22 Wexford\u27s PartyRoy Lueckepage 23 The Four O\u27Clock ClubSally Roachpage 23 Chesterpage 24https://thekeep.eiu.edu/vehicle/1018/thumbnail.jp

Effects of Anacetrapib in Patients with Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk for cardiovascular events despite effective statin-based treatment of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels. The inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) by anacetrapib reduces LDL cholesterol levels and increases high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels. However, trials of other CETP inhibitors have shown neutral or adverse effects on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 30,449 adults with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive atorvastatin therapy and who had a mean LDL cholesterol level of 61 mg per deciliter (1.58 mmol per liter), a mean non-HDL cholesterol level of 92 mg per deciliter (2.38 mmol per liter), and a mean HDL cholesterol level of 40 mg per deciliter (1.03 mmol per liter). The patients were assigned to receive either 100 mg of anacetrapib once daily (15,225 patients) or matching placebo (15,224 patients). The primary outcome was the first major coronary event, a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, the primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (1640 of 15,225 patients [10.8%] vs. 1803 of 15,224 patients [11.8%]; rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97; P=0.004). The relative difference in risk was similar across multiple prespecified subgroups. At the trial midpoint, the mean level of HDL cholesterol was higher by 43 mg per deciliter (1.12 mmol per liter) in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (a relative difference of 104%), and the mean level of non-HDL cholesterol was lower by 17 mg per deciliter (0.44 mmol per liter), a relative difference of -18%. There were no significant between-group differences in the risk of death, cancer, or other serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive statin therapy, the use of anacetrapib resulted in a lower incidence of major coronary events than the use of placebo. (Funded by Merck and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN48678192 ; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01252953 ; and EudraCT number, 2010-023467-18 .)

Toxizität der Tabakpflanze (Giftpflanze des Jahres 2009)

<jats:title>Zusammenfassung</jats:title><jats:p>Die Gattungen Nicotiana tabacum und Nicotiana rustica der Tabakpflanze sind von großer wirtschaftlicher Bedeutung. Aus ihnen wird Tabak hergestellt, der mit Alkohol zur weltweit am häufigsten konsumierten Genussdroge zählt. Aufgrund seiner Legalität wird die Toxizität trotz steigender Warnung und Aufklärung immer noch unterschätzt. Die Toxizität der Tabakpflanze ist vor allem auf das Alkaloid Nikotin zurückzuführen. Dass es selten zu einer Vergiftung durch die reine Pflanze kommt, liegt daran, dass sie optisch kaum zum Verzehr anregt. Häufiger dagegen ist eine Vergiftung durch z. B. verschluckte Zigarettenstummel, die vor allem für Kinder sehr gefährlich sein kann. Eine weitere Gefahr der Vergiftung entsteht bei der Tabakernte. Nikotin wird auch über die Haut aufgenommen und kann so zu der <jats:italic>Green Tobacco Sickness</jats:italic> bei Tabakplantagenarbeitern führen. Im Ernstfall existiert kein Antidot. Aktivkohle sollte so schnell wie möglich gegeben werden, um die Resorption zu vermindern. Ansonsten muss das Nikotin mit einer Magenwäsche aus dem Körper gefiltert werden. Präventiv sollten deshalb verstärkt auf die Gefahren des Tabaks aufmerksam gemacht werden.</jats:p&gt

Procalcitonin (PCT) – ein Biomarker in der Sepsisdiagnostik

<jats:title>Zusammenfassung</jats:title><jats:p>Die Bestimmung von Procalcitonin im Serum stellt einen wesentlichen Bestandteil der Diagnostik, Verlaufskontrolle und Therapieüberwachung septischer Infektionen dar. Das Procalcitonin ist ein Marker, der in der Diagnostik von Infektionen, schweren Entzündungen und Sepsis wertvolle und therapieentscheidende Aussagen ermöglicht. Er sollte allerdings nicht zum Screening asymptomatischer Personen im Rahmen arbeitsmedizinischer Vorsorgen oder sog. Manager-Untersuchungen genutzt werden, sondern lediglich beim klinischen Verdacht einer vorliegenden systemischen Infektion bei entsprechenden Symptomen.</jats:p&gt

Angiotensin Converting Enzyme (ACE) – ein Marker in der Diagnostik der Sarkoidose

<jats:title>Zusammenfassung</jats:title><jats:p>Die Bestimmung von ACE im Serum oder Heparinplasma stellt einen wesentlichen Bestandteil der Diagnostik, Verlaufskontrolle und Therapieüberwachung von benignen Lungenerkrankungen dar. ACE ist ein Marker, der bei Sarkoidose wertvolle Aussagen zur Diagnosefindung ermöglicht. Hier zeichnet er sich durch hohe Sensitivität und Spezifität aus.</jats:p&gt

Forecasting Soybean Complex Prices: Univariate and Multivariate Time Series Models

To forecast prices within the soybean complex, a univariate, ARIMA, time series model and a multivariate, VAR, time series model are constructed. An economic evaluation of these models provides evidence that the VAR model will offer greater opportunity for significant economic returns than will the use of an ARIMA model