2 research outputs found
Probabilistic-statistical models of the dynamics of climatic changes in the Altai Mountains
A probabilistic-statistical parameterization of time series characterizing geological and climatic processes allows determining some regularities by an autocorrelation analysis of signals which differ in nature. The use of the autocorrelation method for analyzing data related to solar and tectonic activity and characterizing the level of stratospheric ozone (total ozone content), hydrothermal regimes (De Martonne aridity index), and wood structure (maximum density of annual rings) allows us to find regularities in time series of various natural processes. Data on the maximum density of Siberian larch trees growing in the Altai Mountains made it possible to calculate the past changes in total ozone content and the aridity index in the Altai Mountains from 1900 to 2014 based on some similarities in the series and a separation of a dendrochronological signal into its main components
Reconstruction of changes in stratospheric ozone in the taiga forests based of the singular spectral analysis
ΠΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ. ΠΡΠΎΠ±Π»Π΅ΠΌΠ° ΡΠ½ΠΈΠΆΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ½Π° ΠΈ ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Ρ ΠΊ Π΅Π³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΎΡΠ»ΡΠΌ ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡΠΌ ΡΠ²ΡΠ·Π°Π½Ρ Ρ ΠΏΡΠΎΠΈΡΡ
ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡΠΈΠΌ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΡΡΠΎΠΌ ΡΠ²Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ Π΄ΠΎΠ·Ρ ΡΠ»ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ»Π΅ΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ°Π΄ΠΈΠ°ΡΠΈΠΈ Π² ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ»Π½ΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠΌ Π΄ΠΈΠ°ΠΏΠ°Π·ΠΎΠ½Π΅, Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠΈΠ³Π°ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΠΏΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΡ
Π½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ ΠΠ΅ΠΌΠ»ΠΈ. Π Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ· Π΄ΠΎΠ»Π³ΠΎΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΎΠ΄Π½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Π±Π°Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ
ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΡ Π±ΡΡΡ ΠΎΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π»Π΅Π½Ρ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡΠΈ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠΆΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠ΅Π³ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΏΠΎ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΠΌ ΠΏΠ»ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΠΈ Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Ρ Ρ
Π²ΠΎΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
. Π§ΡΠΎΠ±Ρ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡΠΈΡΡ Π±Π°Π·Ρ ΡΠΊΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΌΠ΅Π½ΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΡ
Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
, ΠΏΡΠΎΠ²ΠΎΠ΄ΡΡΡΡ ΠΏΠΎΠΈΡΠΊΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΡ ΠΏΠΎ ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΡ
Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊ Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Ρ, Π° ΡΠ°ΠΊΠΆΠ΅ ΡΡΠΎΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ Π°ΠΏΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°Ρ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊ ΠΏΡΠ΅Π΄Π²Π°ΡΠΈΡΠ΅Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠΊΠΈ Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
, Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·ΠΈΡΡΡΡΡΡ ΡΠ²ΡΠ·ΠΈ Π±ΠΈΠΎΠΈΠ½Π΄ΠΈΠΊΠ°ΡΠΎΡΠΎΠ² Ρ Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠ°ΠΌΠΈ, ΠΈ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±Π°ΡΡΠ²Π°ΡΡΡΡ Π½ΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΈΡ
ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³Π½ΠΎΠ·Π°. Π Π΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΡ ΠΈΡΡΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΡ
ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ½ΡΡ
Ρ
Π°ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΡΡΠΈΠΊ ΠΌΠΎΠΆΠ΅Ρ Π±ΡΡΡ ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π½Π° Π² ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΡΠ΅ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΠΈΠ²Ρ ΠΈΡΠΊΡΡΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ Π²ΠΎΡΡΡΠ°Π½ΠΎΠ²Π»Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π»Π΅ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΡΠ΅ΡΡΡΡΠΎΠ². Π¦Π΅Π»Ρ: ΡΠ°ΡΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΡ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΠΊΡ ΡΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ½Π° Π½Π° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΈΠ½Π³ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΊΠ° Π΄ΡΠ΅Π²Π΅ΡΠΈΠ½Ρ Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Ρ Ρ
Π²ΠΎΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
Π½Π° ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ². ΠΠ±ΡΠ΅ΠΊΡΡ. Π ΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΡΠ΅Π·ΠΎΠ½Π° ΡΠΎΡΡΠ° Ρ Π΄Π΅ΡΠ΅Π²ΡΠ΅Π² ΡΠΎΡΠΌΠΈΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΡ Π΄ΡΠ΅Π²Π΅ΡΠ½Π°Ρ ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΡΡΠ° Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Ρ ΡΠΎ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠΉΡΡΠ²Π°ΠΌΠΈ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠΎΠ·ΠΈΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΌΠ°ΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠ°Π»Π°. ΠΠ°ΠΆΠ΄Π°Ρ ΠΈΠ· ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½Ρ Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΊΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ°: ΡΠ³Π»Π΅ΡΠΎΠ΄ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠ°ΡΠ°Ρ ΠΌΠ°ΡΡΠΈΡΠ°, Π²ΠΎΠ΄Π° ΠΈ ΡΠ³Π»Π΅ΠΊΠΈΡΠ»ΡΠΉ Π³Π°Π·, ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠΈΡ ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π½Π° ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠΊΡΡΠΆΠ°ΡΡΠ΅ΠΉ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Ρ. ΠΠ° ΠΎΡΠ½ΠΎΠ²Π΅ ΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½ΡΠ½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΡΡΠΌΠΌΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΠ΅ ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΊΠΈ Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Ρ, ΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΡΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΠΏΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠΌΠΎΡΠΈ ΠΏΡΠΎΠ³ΡΠ°ΠΌΠΌΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΎΠ±Π΅ΡΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡ Caterpillar SSA 3.40, ΠΌΠΎΠ³ΡΡ Π±ΡΡΡ ΠΈΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½Ρ Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ½Π° Π² Π·ΠΎΠ½Π°Ρ
Ρ ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΠΎΡΡΠ° Ρ
Π²ΠΎΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
Π² ΠΎΡΠ»ΠΈΡΠΈΠ΅ ΠΎΡ Π·ΠΎΠ½ Ρ Π΄ΠΎΠΌΠΈΠ½ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ΠΌ ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠΏΠ΅ΡΠ°ΡΡΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΡΠ°ΠΊΡΠΎΡΠ°. ΠΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ: Π΄Π΅Π½Π΄ΡΠΎΡ
ΡΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΉ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄; ΡΠΈΠ½Π³ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΡΠΏΠ΅ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·; ΡΠΊΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠ΅ΡΠΎΠ΄Ρ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ·Π° Π²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΡ
ΡΡΠ΄ΠΎΠ²; ΠΈΠ½ΡΠ΅Π»Π»Π΅ΠΊΡΡΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ Π°Π½Π°Π»ΠΈΠ· Π΄Π°Π½Π½ΡΡ
; ΠΈΠΌΠΈΡΠ°ΡΠΈΠΎΠ½Π½ΠΎΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅. Π Π΅Π·ΡΠ»ΡΡΠ°ΡΡ. ΠΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ°Π·ΡΠ°Π±ΠΎΡΠ°Π½Π½ΠΎΠΉ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ² Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΠ»Π΅Ρ Ρ
Π²ΠΎΠΉΠ½ΡΡ
Π½Π° ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² ΠΏΠΎΠ΄ΡΠ²Π΅ΡΠΆΠ΄Π°Π΅ΡΡΡ Π½Π° Π²ΡΠ±ΠΎΡΠΊΠ΅ ΡΡΠ³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΡΡ
Ρ
ΡΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΉ ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½Ρ Π΄ΡΠ΅Π²Π΅ΡΠΈΠ½Ρ. ΠΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΉ ΠΠ°ΡΠ±ΠΈΠ½Π°-Π£ΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ½Π° ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΠ΅Ρ Π²ΡΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈΡΡ Π³ΡΡΠΏΠΏΡ Ρ
ΡΠΎΠ½ΠΎΠ»ΠΎΠ³ΠΈΠΉ, Π² ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΡΡ
ΠΊΠΎΡΠΎΡΡΡ
ΠΎΡΡΡΡΡΡΠ²ΡΠ΅Ρ Π°Π²ΡΠΎΠΊΠΎΡΡΠ΅Π»ΡΡΠΈΡ Π²ΠΎΠ·ΠΌΡΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΠΉ. ΠΡΠΏΠΎΠ»ΡΠ·ΠΎΠ²Π°Π½ΠΈΠ΅ ΠΌΠΎΠ΄Π΅Π»ΠΈ ΡΡΠΌΠΌΠ°ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΎΡΠΊΠ»ΠΈΠΊΠΎΠ² Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΡΠ΅Ρ
ΠΊΠΎΠΌΠΏΠΎΠ½Π΅Π½Ρ Π΄ΡΠ΅Π²Π΅ΡΠΈΠ½Ρ ΡΡΡΠ΅ΡΡΠ²Π΅Π½Π½ΠΎ ΠΏΠΎΠ²ΡΡΠ°Π΅Ρ Π΄ΠΎΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅ΡΠ½ΠΎΡΡΡ ΡΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΈΡΡΠ»Π΅Π΄ΡΠ΅ΠΌΡΡ
Π°ΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ½ΡΡ
ΠΏΠ°ΡΠ°ΠΌΠ΅ΡΡΠΎΠ² Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π·ΠΎΠ½Ρ Ρ ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΠΌΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ ΡΡΠ»ΠΎΠ²ΠΈΡΠΌΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ Π³ΠΎΠ΄ΠΈΡΠ½ΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΏΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΡΠ° Π΄Π΅ΡΠ΅Π²ΡΠ΅Π². ΠΠ°Π½Π½ΡΠ΅ ΡΠ΅ΠΊΠΎΠ½ΡΡΡΡΠΊΡΠΈΠΈ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ½Π° Π΄Π»Ρ ΡΠ°Π΅ΠΆΠ½ΠΎΠΉ Π·ΠΎΠ½Ρ Π’ΠΎΠΌΡΠΊΠΎΠ³ΠΎ ΠΎΠ±Π»Π°ΡΡΠΈ ΠΏΠΎΠ·Π²ΠΎΠ»ΡΡΡ ΡΠ΄Π΅Π»Π°ΡΡ Π²ΡΠ²ΠΎΠ΄, ΡΡΠΎ, Π½Π΅ΡΠΌΠΎΡΡΡ Π½Π° ΡΠΎΡΡ ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π½Ρ ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ½Π° Π² ΡΡΡΠ°ΡΠΎΡΡΠ΅ΡΠ΅, ΠΈΠ·ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ±ΡΠ΅Π³ΠΎ ΡΠΎΠ΄Π΅ΡΠΆΠ°Π½ΠΈΡ ΠΎΠ·ΠΎΠ½Π° Π½Π΅ Π²Π΅ΡΠ½ΡΠ»ΠΈΡΡ ΠΊ ΡΠ²ΠΎΠΈΠΌ ΡΡΠ΅Π΄Π½ΠΈΠΌ ΠΈΡΡΠΎΡΠΈΡΠ΅ΡΠΊΠΈΠΌ Π·Π½Π°ΡΠ΅Π½ΠΈΡΠΌ, ΡΡΠΎΠ²Π΅Π½Ρ Π£Π€-Π ΠΏΠΎ-ΠΏΡΠ΅ΠΆΠ½Π΅ΠΌΡ Π²ΡΡΠΎΠΊ, Π½ΠΎ, ΡΠ΅ΠΌ Π½Π΅ ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π΅Π΅, ΡΠ΅ΡΡΠΈΡΠΎΡΠΈΡ ΠΈ ΡΠΎΠ²ΡΠ΅ΠΌΠ΅Π½Π½ΡΠΉ ΠΏΠ΅ΡΠΈΠΎΠ΄ ΡΠ²Π»ΡΡΡΡΡ Π±Π»Π°Π³ΠΎΠΏΡΠΈΡΡΠ½ΡΠΌΠΈ Π΄Π»Ρ Π»Π΅ΡΠΎΠΏΠΎΡΠ°Π΄ΠΎΠΊ.The relevance. The problem of reducing the level of stratospheric ozone and the interest in its past changes are associated with the increase in the dose of ultraviolet radiation in the short-wave range reaching the Earth's surface. Reconstruction and prediction of longperiod fluctuations of the studied parameters can be carried out using the method of multiple regression according to the density of annual growth rings of conifers. In order to expand the experimental data base, exploratory work is being carried out to measure new characteristics of annual growth rings, as well as the mathematical apparatus of data preprocessing techniques is being refined, the connections of bioindicators with atmospheric parameters are being analyzed and new models of their prediction are being developed. Reconstruction of historical changes in atmospheric characteristics can be considered in the context of the prospect of artificial restoration of forest resources. The aim of the research is to discuss a technique for reconstructing the total ozone content based on a multicomponent singular spectral model of the response of conifers annual growth rings. Objects. During the growing season, trees form a woody structure of annual growth rings with the properties of a composite material. Each of the components of the annual growth rings such as a carbon-containing matrix, water and carbon dioxide contains responses to changes in environmental conditions. On the basis of a multicomponent model, the total responses of annual rings obtained using the Caterpillar SSA 3.40 software can be used to reconstruct changes in the total ozone content in zones with optimal coniferous growth conditions, as opposed to zones with dominance of the temperature factor. Methods: dendrochronological method; singular spectral analysis; econometric methods of time series analysis; data mining; simulation modeling. Results. The reliability of the model of responses of coniferous annual growth rings to changes in atmospheric parameters is confirmed by a sample of ergodic chronologies of wood components. The Durbin-Watson statistic makes it possible to identify a group of chronologies in whose models there is no autocorrelation of perturbations. The use of the cumulative response model for three wood components significantly increases the reliability of the reconstruction of the studied atmospheric parameters for the taiga zone with optimal conditions for annual tree growth. The data of the reconstruction of the total ozone content for the taiga zone of the Tomsk region allow us to conclude that despite the increase in the ozone level in the stratosphere, the changes in the total ozone content have not returned to their average historical values, the level of UV-B is still high, but nevertheless the territory and the modern period are favorable for forest plantations