Uncertainty analysis of contagion processes based on a functional approach

Abstract The spread of a disease, product or idea in a population is often hard to predict. We tend to observe one or few realizations of the contagion process and therefore limited information can be obtained for anticipating future similar events. The stochastic nature of contagion generates unpredictable outcomes throughout the whole course of the dynamics. This might lead to important inaccuracies in the predictions and to the over or under-reaction of policymakers, who tend to anticipate the average behavior. Through an extensive simulation study, we analyze properties of the contagion process, focusing on its unpredictability or uncertainty, and exploiting the functional nature of the data. In particular, we define a novel non-parametric measure of variance based on weighted depth-based central regions. We apply this methodology to the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemiological model and small-world networks. We find that maximum uncertainty is attained at the epidemic threshold. The density of the network and the contagiousness of the process have a strong and complementary effect on the uncertainty of contagion, whereas only a mild effect of the network’s randomness structure is observed

Plasma interleukin-37 is increased and inhibits the production of inflammatory cytokines in peripheral blood mononuclear cells in systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients

Abstract Background Interleukin (IL)-37 has emerged as a novel anti-inflammatory cytokine that play an immunosuppressive role in regulating inflammatory response. This study aimed to measure IL-37 levels in the plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of patients with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA), and to establish the correlation between IL-37 levels and disease activity, laboratory parameters and inflammatory cytokines. Methods The mRNA levels of IL-37 in PBMCs and plasma IL-37 concentrations in 46 sJIA patients and 30 age- and sex-matched healthy controls were measured by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), respectively. The correlations between plasma IL-37 levels and disease activity, laboratory parameters and inflammatory cytokines in sJIA were analyzed by Spearman correlation test. PBMCs from the sJIA patients were stimulated with recombinant human IL-37 (rhIL-37) protein, expressions of IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α and IL-17 were detected by RT-PCR and ELISA. Results Plasma levels of IL-37 and relative IL-37 mRNA expression were significantly elevated in sJIA patients, especially in active sJIA patients, when compared with the healthy controls (P < 0.001). Furthermore, patients with active disease showed higher IL-37 mRNAs and plasma protein levels than those with inactive disease as well as healthy controls. Plasma IL-37 levels were correlated with disease activity and inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α, IL-17 and GM-CSF) in sJIA patients. The productions of inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, TNF-α, IL-17 in PBMCs from sJIA patients were obviously decreased after recombinant IL-37 stimulation, whereas the production of IL-1β was not changed. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that levels of IL-37 were higher in sJIA patients, which were correlated with disease activity and sJIA related inflammatory cytokines. In addition, rhIL-37 down-regulates the expressions of inflammatory cytokines form PBMCs in sJIA patients, suggesting that IL-37 may have the potential role as a natural inhibitor for the pathogenesis and therapy of sJIA

The complete mitochondrial genome of Paroplapoderus tentator Faust (Coleoptera: Attleabidae)

For the first time, we report the complete mitochondrial genome of Paroplapoderus tentator Faust, which is 163,47 bp in length. The total number of genes in the genome was 41, including 13 PCGs; 2 rRNA genes; 19 tRNA genes; and 7 replication initiation region OHs. The genome consisted of 39.32% A, 34.17% T, 9.75% C, and 16.76% G. Phylogenetic trees indicate that Paroplapoderus is closely related to Apoderus. This study provided additional information on molecular biology for the research of Attelabidae, laying the foundation for further research on their phylogenetics

Patient needs in psoriasis treatment and their influencing factors: A nationwide multicentre cross-sectional study in China

Background: The management and treatment of psoriasis has rarely considered patient needs, which are numerous, multi-dimensional and are of great importance to improving treatment outcomes. Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate and compare the patients' needs for psoriasis treatment and identify factors predicting the need to make patient-centred decisions about treatment. Materials and Methods: This nationwide multicentre cross-sectional study included subjects between October 2020 and August 2021. The status quo of the needs in psoriasis treatment and their influencing factors were analysed mainly using the Chi-square test and binary logistic regression. Results: Information on sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were obtained. Factor analysis of a specially designed questionnaire showed that rapid skin clearance, reduced treatment expense and fewer hospital visits or treatment time were the first three patient needs in psoriasis treatment. Several influencing factors were important including the sociodemographic characteristics of gender, marital status, education level and family history, special location of skin lesions, dermatology life quality index (DLQI), Investigator's Global Assessment modified 2011 (IGA mod 2011), condition of the episode, clinical type of psoriasis, seasonal exacerbation and therapy. Conclusions: Patients with psoriasis pursued a wide range of treatment goals, with the most desired being rapid skin clearance, reduced treatment expense and time-saving. Paying attention to sex, marital status, education level, the special location of skin lesions and the DLQI will help dermatologists develop patient-centred treatment, meet the patient's needs and eventually improve the treatment outcomes

Development of quinoxaline 1, 4-dioxides resistance in Escherichia coli and molecular change under resistance selection.

Quinoxaline 1, 4-dioxides (QdNOs) has been used in animals as antimicrobial agents and growth promoters for decades. However, the resistance to QdNOs in pathogenic bacteria raises worldwide concern but it is barely known. To explore the molecular mechanism involved in development of QdNOs resistance in Escherichia coli, 6 strains selected by QdNOs in vitro and 21 strains isolated from QdNOs-used swine farm were subjected to MIC determination and PCR amplification of oqxA gene. A conjugative transfer was carried out to evaluate the transfer risk of QdNOs resistant determinant. Furthermore, the transcriptional profile of a QdNOs-resistant E. coli (79O4-2) selected in vitro with its parent strain 79-161 was assayed with a prokaryotic suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) PCR cDNA subtraction. The result showed that more than 95% (20/21) clinical isolates were oqxA positive, while all the 6 induced QdNOs-resistant strains carried no oqxA gene and exhibited low frequency of conjugation. 44 fragments were identified by SSH PCR subtraction in the QdNOs-resistant strain 79O4-2. 18 cDNAs were involved in biosynthesis of Fe-S cluster (narH), protein (rpoA, trmD, truA, glyS, ileS, rplFCX, rpsH, fusA), lipoate (lipA), lipid A (lpxC), trehalose (otsA), CTP(pyrG) and others molecular. The 11 cDNAs were related to metabolism or degradation of glycolysis (gpmA and pgi) and proteins (clpX, clpA, pepN and fkpB). The atpADG and ubiB genes were associated with ATP biosynthesis and electron transport chain. The pathway of the functional genes revealed that E. coli may adapt the stress generated by QdNOs or develop specific QdNOs-resistance by activation of antioxidative agents biosynthesis (lipoate and trehalose), protein biosynthesis, glycolysis and oxidative phosphorylation. This study initially reveals the possible molecular mechanism involved in the development of QdNOs-resistance in E. coli, providing with novel insights in prediction and assessment of the emergency and horizontal transfer of QdNOs-resistance in E. coli

The first imported case of melioidosis in a patient in central China

ABSTRACTHere, we report the first imported case of melioidosis from Laos in central China. COMPACT VITEK2 identification system and PCR, as well as sequencing methods confirmed that the patient was infected by Burkholderia pseudomallei, a bacterial species closely related to an isolate detected in Thailand. These findings are highly valuable for an early diagnosis, treatment and to prevent the spread of this emerging infectious disease in central China