Estimating yield curves from swap, BUBOR and FRA data

In this paper we estimate yield curves from Hungarian interest rate swap and money market data. Following general practice, we experiment with several models-differing in the functional form and objective function-and chose the model which performs best according to standard evaluation criteria. We find that the methods perform equally well in terms of residuals and out-of-sample fit; however, the smoothing spline method stands out when we consider the ability to fit the short end of the maturity spectrum, stability of estimation and plausibility of the estimated curves.yield curve, interest rate swaps.

Interest rate expectations and macroeconomic shocks affecting the yield curve

This study briefly presents the tools the Magyar Nemzeti Bank uses to estimate and interpret the yield curve, and to analyse the underlying reasons of yield changes. The first part of the study compares the yields of government securities and those of interbank and interest rate swap markets, and examines the reasons behind their differences. The second part sums up the dynamic model that is used to describe the interaction between the yield curve and the macroeconomy. This model enables us to examine the different macroeconomic shocks which impact the development of the yield curve; from a central bank perspective it is particularly important to gauge the impact of monetary policy shocks and monetary policy measures on longterm yields.interest rate expectation, macroeconomic shock, yield curve, dynamic model, monetary policy shock.

A joint macroeconomic-yield curve model for Hungary

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that follow a VAR(1) process. The structural macroeconomic shocks are identified by sign restrictions. According to the model, more than sixty percent of the variation of the yield curve factors can be explained by macro shocks. In particular, the monetary policy shock is the most important determinant of the level factor, while the slope factor is mainly driven by risk premium and demand shocks. As for the direction of the responses, monetary policy and supply shocks decrease long forward rates, while premium and demand shocks increase short forward rates. The effect of the premium and monetary policy shocks is strongest in the period when the shock occurs, while for the demand and supply shocks the responses reach their peak only after some delay.yield curve, Nelson-Siegel, factor models, state space models, structural identification.

Quo vadis, deficit? How high the tax level will be when the economic cycle reverses?

The economic recession dampened tax revenues, causing deterioration – partly temporary, partly permanent – in the general government balance. The fiscal position can be assessed realistically if we can determine the level of revenue and deficit in the medium run. In order to do this, we prepare estimates of the trends of the macroeconomic variables determining tax bases and of the elasticity between tax revenues and tax bases. Trends in macroeconomic variables can be determined in three ways. Results from the macroeconometric model are more reliable and consistent. The simple time series method (ECB) is acceptable if it relies on prior estimation – e.g. one derived from the model – of the trends of macroeconomic variables. The Multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter method (MVHP) only requires exogenously given potential GDP, and is thus suitable for simulation and for determining the uncertainty surrounding the estimate. Our model-based results show that the deficit for 2010 would be 2.8% lower if – over the medium term – there were convergence with the potential GDP forecast by the model. From 2011 this negative cyclical component will diminish by an annual 0.4-0.5%. If potential GDP is 1% lower, from 2011 tax revenues would approach a lower medium-term tax level 0.28-0.29% faster based on the MVHP method. If potential GDP is 1% higher, convergence to a higher tax level would be 0.30-0.31% slower.cyclically adjusted budget deficit, business cycles, constrained multi variate HP filter

The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM)

This document gives a detailed account of the current version of the Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM). It describes the main building blocks, presents the forecast performance of the model and, finally, it illustrates the responses to the most important shocks the Hungarian economy may face. This version of the model is used to produce the Bank’s quarterly projections, as well as to perform simulations and scenario analyses.econometric modelling, forecasting, simulation.