Combining multiple types of intelligence to generate probability maps of moving targets

Drug addiction in the United States generates significant health, economic, and social costs. One of the prominent ways in which traffickers smuggle drugs into the United States is by maritime shipments from South America. In 1989 Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF-S) was established to fight these traffickers. JIATF-S collects information from multiple sources, which can be broadly classified into two categories. The first category is sensor-based sources that produce observations about possible targets (e.g., radar, sonar). These observations provide precise location and time but are susceptible to false positive and false negative errors regarding their content. The second category is human-based sources, including tips, messages and intercepted communications among humans. In addition to possible misinformation regarding the content of an event, such inputs are also susceptible to errors regarding the location and time of the event. In this thesis we develop a data fusion model that can assist JIATF-S in estimating the likelihood that a certain target (i.e., drug-smuggling vessel) is present at a certain location at a certain time and evaluate the reliability of the information source. The novelty of this thesis is manifested in a new probabilistic approach for utilizing human-generated intelligence, and in the way it is combined with sensor-generated intelligence.http://archive.org/details/combiningmultipl1094537751Captain, Israel Defense ForcesApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Viable short-term directed energy weapon naval solutions: a systems analysis of current prototypes

With conventional weapons nearing their peak capability, the need to identify alternative war fighting solutions suggests a look at Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs). The goal is to change the means by which warfare is conducted to improve operational efficiencies and overall effectiveness. The Naval Postgraduate School Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA-19B) Capstone project team examined how existing directed energy technologies can provide performance across multiple warfare area domains and mission subsets for the U.S. Navy. The aim was to identify and characterize the capability gaps with conventional weapons systems, produce a coherent vision of naval missions that incorporate DEWs, and generate a roadmap for a DEW fleet. By conducting a thorough Analysis of Alternatives based on system performance, integration, schedule, and cost, the project team identified that the Tactical Laser System (with a laser beam power of 10 kW) provided the best overall capability to defend surface combatants, although none of the analyzed DEWs have the capability to replace a current conventional weapon. The Active Denial System (microwave) provided a niche capability in the Anti-Terrorism/Force Protection mission set.http://archive.org/details/viableshorttermd1094534734Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited