Proximity, maps and conflict: New measures, New maps and New findings

This article introduces two new datasets. The first is a new interstate distance dataset. It is recognized that different theories regarding distance and conflict will call for different understandings of “distance” and accordingly, ten different types of distance measurement are presented. Moreover, it is argued that in order for a distance dataset to contain accurate distances, it is necessary for it to be based on maps reflecting state border changes over time. As such, a new map dataset is presented, including annualized maps for all states, stored in KML format. It will be shown that the frequent border changes experienced by states can have large impacts on distance calculations. The significance of the relationship between distance and conflict will be tested for the ten different types of distance measurement, not with the aim of finding a “best measure” but in order to demonstrate that distance remains an important variable and that each different form of distance measure can be significant

Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space

Civil wars cluster in space as well as time. In this study, we develop and evaluate empirically alternative explanations for this observed clustering. We consider whether the spatial pattern of intrastate conflict simply stems from a similar distribution of relevant country attributes or whether conflicts indeed constitute a threat to other proximate states. Our results strongly suggest that there is a genuine neighborhood effect of armed conflict, over and beyond what individual country characteristics can account for. We then examine whether the risk of contagion depends on the degree of exposure to proximate conflicts. Contrary to common expectations, this appears not to be the case. Rather, we find that conflict is more likely when there are ethnic ties to groups in a neighboring conflict and that contagion is primarily a feature of separatist conflicts. This suggests that transnational ethnic linkages constitute a central mechanism of conflict contagion. © 2008 International Studies Association