Patterns and Determinants of Economic Reform in Transition Economies: 1990-1998

The paper begins by presenting a framework for evaluating transition. The framework identifies categories of influences or "determinants of transition" and how they interact to produce short-term impacts, intermediate outcomes, and long-term socio-economic performance. Among the determinants are the so-called "initial conditions" of transition. The initial conditions describe the situation a country finds itself at the start of the process and are a mixture of geographic fixed characteristics, hard-to-change institutional and economic conditions, and relatively easy-to-change policy conditions. The paper then uses the initial conditions to create a country cluster typology, which is used throughout the rest of the paper. Focusing on the "cluster" as the central unit of analysis underscores our belief that this method greatly simplifies the analysis while at the same time illuminating common features that would otherwise be obscured by country-specific details. This approach also recognizes that the inter-cluster differences are so profound as to make it senseless to compare, say capital market developments in Poland with the Kyrgyz Republic; their initial conditions are just too different. While it is difficult to draw lessons between countries in different clusters, the opposite is true within clusters. By specifically controlling for common initial conditions among countries within a cluster we find ourselves with a powerful assessment tool to evaluate the effectiveness of the alternative policies that countries have taken within the cluster. In brief, a cluster based analysis is a more productive approach upon which to formulate donor programs

War and the Reelection Motive: Examining the Effect of Term Limits

This article investigates the relationship between term limits and international conflict. Theories of political survival and diversionary war both imply term limits should play a role in international relations, whereas “permanent referendum theory,” largely motivated by work in American politics, suggests otherwise. Drawing on these theories, we formulate and test competing hypotheses regarding term limits and international crises. Using dyadic militarized interstate disputes data and information on forty-eight democracies with term limits, we uncover strong evidence to support the claim that leaders reaching final terms in office are more likely to initiate conflict than those still subject to reelection. Moreover, we find that the likelihood of conflict initiation is significantly higher during times of recession, but only in the absence of binding term limits. While binding electoral terms and economic downturns are both independently associated with increased levels of conflict initiation, in concert their conditional effects actually counteract each other

Decision theory in the study of national action: problems and a proposal

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/66743/2/10.1177_002200276500900202.pd

Accounting for International War: The State of the Discipline

In studies of war it is important to observe that the processes leading to so frequent an event as conflict are not necessarily those that lead to so infrequent an event as war. Also, many models fail to recognize that a phenomenon irregularly distributed in time and space, such as war, cannot be explained on the basis of relatively invariant phenomena. Much research on periodicity in the occurrence of war has yielded little result, suggesting that the direction should now be to focus on such variables as diffusion and contagion. Structural variables, such as bipolarity, show contradictory results with some clear inter-century differences. Bipolarity, some results suggest, might have different effects on different social entities. A considerable number of studies analysing dyadic variables show a clear connection between equal capabilities among contending nations and escalation of conflict into war. Finally, research into national attributes often points to strength and geographical location as important variables. In general, the article concludes, there is room for modest optimism, as research into the question of war is no longer moving in non-cumulative circles. Systematic research is producing results and there is even a discernible tendency of convergence, in spite of a great diversity in theoretical orientations.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/69148/2/10.1177_002234338101800101.pd

The Political Economy of US Military Spending

The causes of the dramatic rise in military spending in the post-war era have been the subject of much political and academic controversy. No extant formulation seems to provide a compelling explanation of the dynamics involved in the levels of, and rates of change in, such spending. In light of this, the authors develop a new model, based mainly on a political-business cycle argument, to account for these dynamics. The basic proposition in this model is that variations in national defense spending arise from political considerations which are related to real and desired conditions within the national economy. Applying this model to the experience of the United States 1948-1976, the authors show that it has a large measure of empirical validity. If one removes the effects of war-time mobilization, it is clear that for the United States the principal driving forces in military spending dynamics were (1) the perceived utility of such spending in stabilizing aggregate demand, (2) the political or electoral value of the perceived economic effects arising out of such spending, and (3) the pressures of institutional-constituency demands.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68958/2/10.1177_002234337901600202.pd

A stochastic multidimensional scaling procedure for the empirical determination of convex indifference curves for preference/choice analysis

The vast majority of existing multidimensional scaling (MDS) procedures devised for the analysis of paired comparison preference/choice judgments are typically based on either scalar product (i.e., vector) or unfolding (i.e., ideal-point) models. Such methods tend to ignore many of the essential components of microeconomic theory including convex indifference curves, constrained utility maximization, demand functions, et cetera. This paper presents a new stochastic MDS procedure called MICROSCALE that attempts to operationalize many of these traditional microeconomic concepts. First, we briefly review several existing MDS models that operate on paired comparisons data, noting the particular nature of the utility functions implied by each class of models. These utility assumptions are then directly contrasted to those of microeconomic theory. The new maximum likelihood based procedure, MICROSCALE, is presented, as well as the technical details of the estimation procedure. The results of a Monte Carlo analysis investigating the performance of the algorithm as a number of model, data, and error factors are experimentally manipulated are provided. Finally, an illustration in consumer psychology concerning a convenience sample of thirty consumers providing paired comparisons judgments for some fourteen brands of over-the-counter analgesics is discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45748/1/11336_2005_Article_BF02294463.pd