Accounting for Multiplicity in Calculating Eta Earth

Using the updated exoplanet population parameters of our previous study, which includes the planetary radius updates from Gaia DR2 and an inferred multiplicity distribution, we provide a revised $\eta_{\oplus}$ calculation. This is achieved by sampling planets from our derived population model and determining which planets meet our criterion for habitability. To ensure robust results, we provide probabilities calculated over a range of upper radius limits. Our most optimistic criterion for habitability provides an $\eta_{\oplus}$ value of $0.34\pm 0.02 \frac{\rm planets}{\rm star}$. We also consider the effects of multiplicity and the number of habitable planets each system may contain. Our calculation indicates that $6.4\pm0.5\%$ of GK dwarfs have more than one planet within their habitable zone. This optimistic habitability criterion also suggests that $0.036\pm0.009\%$ of solar-like stars will harbor 5 or more habitable planets. These tightly packed highly habitable system should be extremely rare, but still possible. Even with our most pessimistic criterion we still expect that $1.8\pm0.2\%$ of solar-like stars harbor more than one habitable planet.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure; Accepted for publication in MNRA

The Great Inequality and the Dynamical Disintegration of the Outer Solar System

Using an ensemble of N-body simulations, this paper considers the fate of the outer gas giants (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) after the Sun leaves the main sequence and completes its stellar evolution. Due to solar mass loss—which is expected to remove roughly half of the star's mass—the orbits of the giant planets expand. This adiabatic process maintains the orbital period ratios, but the mutual interactions between planets and the width of mean-motion resonances (MMR) increase, leading to the capture of Jupiter and Saturn into a stable 5:2 resonant configuration. The expanded orbits, coupled with the large-amplitude librations of the critical MMR angle, make the system more susceptible to perturbations from stellar flyby interactions. Accordingly, within about 30 Gyr, stellar encounters perturb the planets onto the chaotic subdomain of the 5:2 resonance, triggering a large-scale instability, which culminates in the ejections of all but one planet over the subsequent ~10 Gyr. After an additional ~50 Gyr, a close stellar encounter (with a perihelion distance less than ~200 au) liberates the final planet. Through this sequence of events, the characteristic timescale over which the solar system will be completely dissolved is roughly 100 Gyr. Our analysis thus indicates that the expected dynamical lifetime of the solar system is much longer than the current age of the universe, but is significantly shorter than previous estimates

Scaling K2. I. Revised Parameters for 222,088 K2 Stars and a K2 Planet Radius Valley at 1.9 R_⊕

Previous measurements of stellar properties for K2 stars in the Ecliptic Plane Input Catalog largely relied on photometry and proper motion measurements, with some added information from available spectra and parallaxes. Combining Gaia DR2 distances with spectroscopic measurements of effective temperatures, surface gravities, and metallicities from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) DR5, we computed updated stellar radii and masses for 26,838 K2 stars. For 195,250 targets without a LAMOST spectrum, we derived stellar parameters using random forest regression on photometric colors trained on the LAMOST sample. In total, we measured spectral types, effective temperatures, surface gravities, metallicities, radii, and masses for 222,088 A, F, G, K, and M-type K2 stars. With these new stellar radii, we performed a simple reanalysis of 299 confirmed and 517 candidate K2 planet radii from Campaigns 1–13, elucidating a distinct planet radius valley around 1.9 R_⊕, a feature thus far only conclusively identified with Kepler planets, and tentatively identified with K2 planets. These updated stellar parameters are a crucial step in the process toward computing K2 planet occurrence rates

Accounting for incompleteness due to transit multiplicity in Kepler planet occurrence rates

We investigate the role that planet detection order plays in the Kepler planet detection pipeline. The Kepler pipeline typically detects planets in order of descending signal strength (MES). We find that the detectability of transits experiences an additional 5.5 per cent and 15.9 per cent efficiency loss, for periods 200 days respectively, when detected after the strongest signal transit in a multiple-planet system. We provide a method for determining the transit probability for multiple-planet systems by marginalizing over the empirical Kepler dataset. Furthermore, because detection efficiency appears to be a function of detection order, we discuss the sorting statistics that affect the radius and period distributions of each detection order. Our occurrence rate dataset includes radius measurement updates from the California Kepler Survey (CKS), Gaia DR2, and asteroseismology. Our population model is consistent with the results of Burke et al. (2015), but now includes an improved estimate of the multiplicity distribution. From our obtained model parameters, we find that only 4.0±4.6 per cent of solar-like GK dwarfs harbour one planet. This excess is smaller than prior studies and can be well modelled with a modified Poisson distribution, suggesting that the Kepler Dichotomy can be accounted for by including the effects of multiplicity on detection efficiency. Using our modified Poisson model, we expect the average number of planets is 5.86 ± 0.18 planets per GK dwarf within the radius and period parameter space of Kepler

Scaling K2. II. Assembly of a Fully Automated C5 Planet Candidate Catalog Using EDI-Vetter

We present a uniform transiting exoplanet candidate list for Campaign 5 of the K2 mission. This catalog contains 75 planets with seven multi-planet systems (five double, one triple, and one quadruple planet system). Within the range of our search, we find eight previously undetected candidates, with the remaining 67 candidates overlapping 51% of the study of Kruse et al. that manually vets candidates from Campaign 5. In order to vet our potential transit signals, we introduce the Exoplanet Detection Identification Vetter (EDI-Vetter), which is a fully automated program able to determine whether a transit signal should be labeled as a false positive or a planet candidate. This automation allows us to create a statistically uniform catalog, ideal for measurements of planet occurrence rate. When tested, the vetting software is able to ensure that our sample is 94.2% reliable against systematic false positives. Additionally, we inject artificial transits at the light-curve level of the raw K2 data and find that the maximum completeness of our pipeline is 70% before vetting and 60% after vetting. For convenience of future studies of occurrence rate, we include measurements of stellar noise (CDPP) and the three-transit window function for each target. This study is part of a larger survey of the K2 data set and the methodology that will be applied to the entirety of that set

Scaling K2. III. Comparable Planet Occurrence in the FGK Samples of Campaign 5 and Kepler

Using our K2 Campaign 5 fully automated planet-detection data set (43 planets), which has corresponding measures of completeness and reliability, we infer an underlying planet population model for the FGK dwarf sample (9257 stars). Implementing a broken power law for both the period and radius distributions, we find an overall planet occurrence of 1.00^(+1.07)_(−0.51) planets per star within a period range of 0.5–38 days. Making similar cuts and running a comparable analysis on the Kepler sample (2318 planets; 94,222 stars), we find an overall occurrence of 1.10 ± 0.05 planets per star. Since the Campaign 5 field is nearly 120 angular degrees away from the Kepler field, this occurrence similarity offers evidence that the Kepler sample may provide a good baseline for Galactic inferences. Furthermore, the Kepler stellar sample is metal-rich compared to the K2 Campaign 5 sample, so a finding of occurrence parity may reduce the role of metallicity in planet formation. However, a weak (1.5σ) difference, in agreement with metal-driven formation, is found when assuming the Kepler model power laws for the K2 Campaign 5 sample and optimizing only the planet occurrence factor. This weak trend indicates that further investigation of metallicity-dependent occurrence is warranted once a larger sample of uniformly vetted K2 planet candidates is made available