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New perspectives in cross-validation
Appealing due to its universality, cross-validation is an ubiquitous tool for model tuning and selection. At its core, cross-validation proposes to split the data (potentially several times), and alternatively use some of the data for fitting a model and the rest for testing the model. This produces a reliable estimate of the risk, although many questions remain concerning how best to compare such estimates across different models. Despite its widespread use, many theoretical problems remain unanswered for cross-validation, particularly in high-dimensional regimes where bias issues are non-negligible. We first provide an asymptotic analysis of the cross-validated risk in relation to the train-test split risk for a large class of estimators under stability conditions. This asymptotic analysis is expressed in the form of a central limit theorem, and allows us to characterize the speed-up of the cross-validation procedure for general parametric M-estimators. In particular, we show that when the loss used for fitting differs from that used for evaluation, k-fold cross-validation may offer a reduction in variance less (or greater) than k. We then turn our attention to the high-dimensional regime (where the number of parameters is comparable to the number of observations). In such a regime, k-fold cross-validation presents asymptotic bias, and hence increasing the number of folds is of interest. We study the extreme case of leave-one-out cross-validation, and show that, for generalized linear models under smoothness conditions, it is a consistent estimate of the risk at the optimal rate. Given the large computational requirements of leave-one-out cross-validation, we finally consider the problem of obtaining a fast approximate version of the leave-one-out cross-validation (ALO) estimator. We propose a general strategy for deriving formulas for such ALO estimators for penalized generalized linear models, and apply it to many common estimators such as the LASSO, SVM, nuclear norm minimization. The performance of such approximations are evaluated on simulated and real datasets
Non-Vacuous Generalization Bounds at the ImageNet Scale: A PAC-Bayesian Compression Approach
Modern neural networks are highly overparameterized, with capacity to
substantially overfit to training data. Nevertheless, these networks often
generalize well in practice. It has also been observed that trained networks
can often be "compressed" to much smaller representations. The purpose of this
paper is to connect these two empirical observations. Our main technical result
is a generalization bound for compressed networks based on the compressed size.
Combined with off-the-shelf compression algorithms, the bound leads to state of
the art generalization guarantees; in particular, we provide the first
non-vacuous generalization guarantees for realistic architectures applied to
the ImageNet classification problem. As additional evidence connecting
compression and generalization, we show that compressibility of models that
tend to overfit is limited: We establish an absolute limit on expected
compressibility as a function of expected generalization error, where the
expectations are over the random choice of training examples. The bounds are
complemented by empirical results that show an increase in overfitting implies
an increase in the number of bits required to describe a trained network.Comment: 16 pages, 1 figure. Accepted at ICLR 201
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