Residents’ income distribution effect of business tax replaced with VAT reform—based on CGE model

Using the 2012 input-output table of China, this study constructs a computable general equilibrium model by embedding the value-added tax (VAT) deduction mechanism into the price model and analyses the effect of replacing the business tax with the VAT reform on residents’ income distribution. The study shows that the VAT reform is generally conducive to residents’ income distribution. Specifically, the VAT reform decreases the indirect tax burden of residents, increases their real income, and narrows down the relative income gap between urban and rural residents. From the perspective of differences between the before- and after-tax Gini coefficients (the MT index), both the pilot VAT reform and VAT reform improve the residents’ income distribution. The VAT reform also improves the welfare of households

Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics and Conditional Skewness

Perspective on behavioral finance, we take a new look at the characteristics of investors’ risk preference, building the D-GARCH-M model, DR-GARCH-M model, and GARCHC-M model to investigate their changes with states of gain and loss and values of return together with other time-varying characteristics of investors’ risk preference. Based on a full description of risk preference characteristic, we develop a GARCHCS-M model to study its effect on the return skewness. The top ten market value stock composite indexes from Global Stock Exchange in 2012 are adopted to make the empirical analysis. The results show that investors are risk aversion when they gain and risk seeking when they lose, which effectively explains the inconsistent risk-return relationship. Moreover, the degree of risk aversion rises with the increasing gain and that of risk seeking improves with the increasing losses. Meanwhile, we find that investors’ inherent risk preference in most countries displays risk seeking, and their current risk preference is influenced by last period’s risk preference and disturbances. At last, investors’ risk preferences affect the conditional skewness; specifically, their risk aversion makes return skewness reduce, while risk seeking makes the skewness increase