1 research outputs found
Dynamic dependence networks: Financial time series forecasting and portfolio decisions (with discussion)
We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series,
a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial
industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing
sparse patterns of dependence among multiple time series extend existing
multivariate volatility models to enable scaling to higher numbers of
individual time series. The theory of these "dynamic dependence network" models
shows how the individual series can be "decoupled" for sequential analysis, and
then "recoupled" for applied forecasting and decision analysis. Decoupling
allows fast, efficient analysis of each of the series in individual univariate
models that are linked-- for later recoupling-- through a theoretical
multivariate volatility structure defined by a sparse underlying graphical
model. Computational advances are especially significant in connection with
model uncertainty about the sparsity patterns among series that define this
graphical model; Bayesian model averaging using discounting of historical
information builds substantially on this computational advance. An extensive,
detailed case study showcases the use of these models, and the improvements in
forecasting and financial portfolio investment decisions that are achievable.
Using a long series of daily international currency, stock indices and
commodity prices, the case study includes evaluations of multi-day forecasts
and Bayesian portfolio analysis with a variety of practical utility functions,
as well as comparisons against commodity trading advisor benchmarks.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figures, 3 table