10 research outputs found
Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate
The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has
been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum).
It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation
reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic
activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle. The
correlation coefficient between the solar maximum (Rmax) and the rising rate
({\beta}a) at {\Delta}m months after the solar minimum (Rmin) is studied and
shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point (r = 0.83)
at about {\Delta}m = 20 months. The prediction error of Rmax based on {\beta}a
is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative
prediction error will be less than 20% when {\Delta}m \geq 20. From the above
relationship, the current cycle (24) is preliminarily predicted to peak around
October 2013 with a size of Rmax =84 \pm 33 at the 90% level of confidence.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in SCIENCE CHINA
Physics,Mechanics & Astronom