Statistical Constraints on the Error of the Leptonic CP Violation of Neutrinos

A constraint on the error of leptonic CP violation, which require the phase $\delta_{CP}$ to be less than $\pi/4$ for it to be distinguishable on a $2\pi$ cycle, is presented. Under this constraint, the effects of neutrino detector 's distance, beam energy, and energy resolution are discussed with reference to the present values of these parameters in experiments. Although an optimized detector performances can minimize the deviation to yield a larger distinguishable range of the leptonic CP phase on a $2\pi$ cycle, it is not possible to determine an arbitrary leptonic CP phase in the range of $2\pi$ with the statistics from a single detector because of the existence of two singular points. An efficiency factor $\eta$ is defined to characterize the distinguishable range of $\delta_{CP}$. To cover the entire possible $\delta_{CP}$ range, a combined efficiency factor $\eta^*$ corresponding to multiple sets of detection parameters with different neutrino beam energies and distances is proposed. The combined efficiency factors $\eta^*$ of various major experiments are also presented.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Where Did the President Visit Last Week? Detecting Celebrity Trips from News Articles

Celebrities' whereabouts are of pervasive importance. For instance, where politicians go, how often they visit, and who they meet, come with profound geopolitical and economic implications. Although news articles contain travel information of celebrities, it is not possible to perform large-scale and network-wise analysis due to the lack of automatic itinerary detection tools. To design such tools, we have to overcome difficulties from the heterogeneity among news articles: 1)One single article can be noisy, with irrelevant people and locations, especially when the articles are long. 2)Though it may be helpful if we consider multiple articles together to determine a particular trip, the key semantics are still scattered across different articles intertwined with various noises, making it hard to aggregate them effectively. 3)Over 20% of the articles refer to the celebrities' trips indirectly, instead of using the exact celebrity names or location names, leading to large portions of trips escaping regular detecting algorithms. We model text content across articles related to each candidate location as a graph to better associate essential information and cancel out the noises. Besides, we design a special pooling layer based on attention mechanism and node similarity, reducing irrelevant information from longer articles. To make up the missing information resulted from indirect mentions, we construct knowledge sub-graphs for named entities (person, organization, facility, etc.). Specifically, we dynamically update embeddings of event entities like the G7 summit from news descriptions since the properties (date and location) of the event change each time, which is not captured by the pre-trained event representations. The proposed CeleTrip jointly trains these modules, which outperforms all baseline models and achieves 82.53% in the F1 metric.Comment: Accepted to ICWSM 2024, 12 page

Spatio-temporal Joint Modelling on Moderate and Extreme Air Pollution in Spain

Very unhealthy air quality is consistently connected with numerous diseases. Appropriate extreme analysis and accurate predictions are in rising demand for exploring potential linked causes and for providing suggestions for the environmental agency in public policy strategy. This paper aims to model the spatial and temporal pattern of both moderate and extremely poor PM10 concentrations (of daily mean) collected from 342 representative monitors distributed throughout mainland Spain from 2017 to 2021. We firstly propose and compare a series of Bayesian hierarchical generalized extreme models of annual maxima PM10 concentrations, including both the fixed effect of altitude, temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure and population density, as well as the spatio-temporal random effect with the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach and a lag-one dynamic auto-regressive component (AR(1)). Under WAIC, DIC and other criteria, the best model is selected with good predictive ability based on the first four-year data (2017--2020) for training and the last-year data (2021) for testing. We bring the structure of the best model to establish the joint Bayesian model of annual mean and annual maxima PM10 concentrations and provide evidence that certain predictors (precipitation, vapour pressure and population density) influence comparably while the other predictors (altitude and temperature) impact reversely in the different scaled PM10 concentrations. The findings are applied to identify the hot-spot regions with poor air quality using excursion functions specified at the grid level. It suggests that the community of Madrid and some sites in northwestern and southern Spain are likely to be exposed to severe air pollution, simultaneously exceeding the warning risk threshold