Hourly and Daily Urban Water Demand Predictions Using a Long Short-Term Memory Based Model

This case study uses a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based model to predict short-term urban water demands for the Hefei City of China. The performance of the LSTM-based model is compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the random forests (RF) model based on data with time resolutions ranging from 15 min to 24 h. Additionally, this paper investigates the performance of the LSTM-based model in predicting multiple successive data points. Results show that the LSTM-based model can offer predictions with improved accuracy than the other models when dealing with data with high time resolutions, data points with abrupt changes, and data with a relatively high uncertainty level. It is also observed that the LSTM-based model exhibits the best performance in predicting multiple successive water demands with high time resolutions. In addition, the inclusion of external parameters (e.g., temperature) cannot enhance the performance of the LSTM-based model, but it can improve ARIMAX's prediction ability (ARIMAX is the ARIMA with variables). These observations provide additional and improved evaluations regarding the LSTM-based models used for short-term urban water demand forecasting, thereby enabling their wider adoption in practical applications. Accepted Author ManuscriptSanitary Engineerin

Real-time foul sewer hydraulic modelling driven by water consumption data from water distribution systems

Real-time hydraulic modelling can be used to address a wide range of issues in a foul sewer system and hence can help improve its daily operation and maintenance. However, the current bottleneck within real-time FSS modelling is the lack of spatio-temporal inflow data. To address the problem, this paper proposes a new method to develop real-time FSS models driven by water consumption data from associated water distribution systems (WDSs) as they often have a proportionally larger number of sensors. Within the proposed method, the relationship between FSS manholes and WDS water consumption nodes are determined based on their underlying physical connections. An optimization approach is subsequently proposed to identify the transfer factor k between nodal water consumption and FSS manhole inflows based on historical observations. These identified k values combined with the acquired real-time nodal water consumption data drive the FSS real-time modelling. The proposed method is applied to two real FSSs. The results obtained show that it can produce simulated sewer flows and manhole water depths matching well with observations at the monitoring locations. The proposed method achieved high R2, NSE and KGE (Kling-Gupta efficiency) values of 0.99, 0.88 and 0.92 respectively. It is anticipated that real-time models developed by the proposed method can be used for improved FSS management and operation.Accepted Author ManuscriptSanitary Engineerin

Improving the Resilience of Postdisaster Water Distribution Systems Using Dynamic Optimization Framework

Improving the resilience of water distribution systems (WDSs) to handle natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes) is a critical step toward sustainable urban water management. This requires the water utility to be able to respond quickly to such disaster events, and in an organized manner, to prioritize the use of available resources to restore service rapidly while minimizing the negative impacts. Many methods have been developed to evaluate the WDS resilience, but few efforts are made so far to improve the resilience of a postdisaster WDS through identifying optimal sequencing of recovery actions. To address this gap, the authors propose a new dynamic optimization framework in this study in which the resilience of a postdisaster WDS is evaluated using six different metrics. A tailored genetic algorithm is developed to solve the complex optimization problem driven by these metrics. The proposed framework is demonstrated using a real-world WDS with 6,064 pipes. Results obtained show that the proposed framework successfully identifies near-optimal sequencing of recovery actions for this complex WDS. The gained insights, conditional on the specific attributes of the case study, include the following: (1) the near-optimal sequencing of a recovery strategy heavily depends on the damage properties of the WDS; (2) replacements of damaged elements tend to be scheduled at the intermediate-late stages of the recovery process due to their long operation time; and (3) interventions to damaged pipe elements near critical facilities (e.g., hospitals) should not be necessarily the first priority to recover due to complex hydraulic interactions within the WDS.Sanitary Engineerin