Circulation of Pacific Winter Water in the western Arctic Ocean

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 124(2), (2019):863-881, doi:10.1029/2018JC014604.Pacific Winter Water (PWW) enters the western Arctic Ocean from the Chukchi Sea; however, the physical mechanisms that regulate its circulation within the deep basin are still not clear. Here, we investigate the interannual variability of PWW with a comprehensive data set over a decade. We quantify the thickening and expansion of the PWW layer during 2002–2016, as well as its changing pathway. The total volume of PWW in the Beaufort Gyre (BG) region is estimated to have increased from 3.48 ± 0.04 × 1014 m3 during 2002–2006 to 4.11 ± 0.02 × 1014 m3 during 2011–2016, an increase of 18%. We find that the deepening rate of the lower bound of PWW is almost double that of its upper bound in the northern Canada Basin, a result of lateral flux convergence of PWW (via lateral advection of PWW from the Chukchi Borderland) in addition to the Ekman pumping. In particular, of the 70‐m deepening of PWW at its lower bound observed over 2003–2011 in the northwestern basin, 43% resulted from lateral flux convergence. We also find a redistribution of PWW in recent years toward the Chukchi Borderland associated with the wind‐driven spin‐up and westward shift of the BG. Finally, we hypothesize that a recently observed increase of lower halocline eddies in the BG might be explained by this redistribution, through a compression mechanism over the Chukchi Borderland.Three anonymous reviewers provided helpful comments and suggestions, which greatly improved this manuscript. We thank John Marshall (MIT) and Georgy Manucharyan (Caltech) for valuable discussions and inputs. We thank Peigen Lin (WHOI), Qinyu Liu, and Jinping Zhao (OUC) for helpful discussions. The Matlab wind rose toolbox is written by Daniel Pereira. This study is supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Program 973) (2015CB953900; 2018YFA0605901), the Key Project of Chinese Natural Science Foundation (41330960), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41706211 and 41776192), the Office of Naval Research (grant N00014‐12‐1‐0112), the NSF Office of Polar Programs (PLR‐1416920, PLR‐1503298, PLR‐1602985, PLR‐1603259, ARC‐1203425, and NSF‐1602926). Wenli Zhong (201606335011) is supported by the China Scholarship Council for his studies in APL. We appreciate Andrey Proshutinsky and Rick Krishfield (WHOI) for providing the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project data publicly at http://www.whoi.edu/website/beaufortgyre/. The Ice‐Tethered Profiler data were collected and made available by the Ice‐Tethered Profiler Program (Krishfield et al., 2008; Toole et al., 2011) based at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (http://www.whoi.edu/itp). The Monthly Isopycnal/Mixed‐layer Ocean Climatology (MIMOC) data are available at https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/mimoc/. The monthly Arctic Dynamic Ocean Topography data are distributed by CPOM (http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/dynamic_topography/). The IBCAO Bathymetry data are available from NASA (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/bathymetry/arctic/arctic.html). The Data‐Interpolating Variational Analysis method is publicly available at http://modb.oce.ulg.ac.be/mediawiki/index.php/DIVA.2019-07-1

Biogeographic responses of the copepod Calanus glacialis to a changing Arctic marine environment

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Change Biology 24 (2018): e159-e170, doi:10.1111/gcb.13890.Dramatic changes have occurred in the Arctic Ocean over the past few decades, especially in terms of sea ice loss and ocean warming. Those environmental changes may modify the planktonic ecosystem with changes from lower to upper trophic levels. This study aimed to understand how the biogeographic distribution of a crucial endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, may respond to both abiotic (ocean temperature) and biotic (phytoplankton prey) drivers. A copepod individual-based model coupled to an ice-ocean-biogeochemical model was utilized to simulate temperature- and food-dependent life cycle development of C. glacialis annually from 1980 to 2014. Over the 35-year study period, the northern boundaries of modeled diapausing C. glacialis expanded poleward and the annual success rates of C. glacialis individuals attaining diapause in a circumpolar transition zone increased substantially. Those patterns could be explained by a lengthening growth season (during which time food is ample) and shortening critical development time (the period from the first feeding stage N3 to the diapausing stage C4). The biogeographic changes were further linked to large scale oceanic processes, particularly diminishing sea ice cover, upper ocean warming, and increasing and prolonging food availability, which could have potential consequences to the entire Arctic shelf/slope marine ecosystems.This study was funded by National Science Foundation Arctic System Science (ARCSS) Program (PLR-1417677, PLR-1417339, and PLR-1416920)

Early ice retreat and ocean warming may induce copepod biogeographic boundary shifts in the Arctic Ocean

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 6137-6158, doi:10.1002/2016JC011784.Early ice retreat and ocean warming are changing various facets of the Arctic marine ecosystem, including the biogeographic distribution of marine organisms. Here an endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, was used as a model organism, to understand how and why Arctic marine environmental changes may induce biogeographic boundary shifts. A copepod individual-based model was coupled to an ice-ocean-ecosystem model to simulate temperature- and food-dependent copepod life history development. Numerical experiments were conducted for two contrasting years: a relatively cold and normal sea ice year (2001) and a well-known warm year with early ice retreat (2007). Model results agreed with commonly known biogeographic distributions of C. glacialis, which is a shelf/slope species and cannot colonize the vast majority of the central Arctic basins. Individuals along the northern boundaries of this species' distribution were most susceptible to reproduction timing and early food availability (released sea ice algae). In the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas where severe ocean warming and loss of sea ice occurred in summer 2007, relatively early ice retreat, elevated ocean temperature (about 1–2°C higher than 2001), increased phytoplankton food, and prolonged growth season created favorable conditions for C. glacialis development and caused a remarkable poleward expansion of its distribution. From a pan-Arctic perspective, despite the great heterogeneity in the temperature and food regimes, common biogeographic zones were identified from model simulations, thus allowing a better characterization of habitats and prediction of potential future biogeographic boundary shifts.National Science Foundation Polar Programs Grant Number: (PLR-1417677, PLR-1417339, and PLR-1416920)2017-02-2

The great 2012 Arctic Ocean summer cyclone enhanced biological productivity on the shelves

A coupled biophysical model is used to examine the impact of the great Arctic cyclone of early August 2012 on the marine planktonic ecosystem in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (PSA). Model results indicate that the cyclone influences the marine planktonic ecosystem by enhancing productivity on the shelves of the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev seas during the storm. Although the cyclone\u27s passage in the PSA lasted only a few days, the simulated biological effects on the shelves last 1 month or longer. At some locations on the shelves, primary productivity (PP) increases by up to 90% and phytoplankton biomass by up to 40% in the wake of the cyclone. The increase in zooplankton biomass is up to 18% on 31 August and remains 10% on 15 September, more than 1 month after the storm. In the central PSA, however, model simulations indicate a decrease in PP and plankton biomass. The biological gain on the shelves and loss in the central PSA are linked to two factors. (1) The cyclone enhances mixing in the upper ocean, which increases nutrient availability in the surface waters of the shelves; enhanced mixing in the central PSA does not increase productivity because nutrients there are mostly depleted through summer draw down by the time of the cyclone\u27s passage. (2) The cyclone also induces divergence, resulting from the cyclone\u27s low‐pressure system that drives cyclonic sea ice and upper ocean circulation, which transports more plankton biomass onto the shelves from the central PSA. The simulated biological gain on the shelves is greater than the loss in the central PSA, and therefore, the production on average over the entire PSA is increased by the cyclone. Because the gain on the shelves is offset by the loss in the central PSA, the average increase over the entire PSA is moderate and lasts only about 10 days. The generally positive impact of cyclones on the marine ecosystem in the Arctic, particularly on the shelves, is likely to grow with increasing summer cyclone activity if the Arctic continues to warm and the ice cover continues to shrink

The influence of sea ice and snow cover and nutrient availability on the formation of massive under-ice phytoplankton blooms in the Chukchi Sea

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 118 (2015): 122-135, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2015.02.008.A coupled biophysical model is used to examine the impact of changes in sea ice and snow cover and nutrient availability on the formation of massive under-ice phytoplankton blooms (MUPBs) in the Chukchi Sea of the Arctic Ocean over the period 1988–2013. The model is able to reproduce the basic features of the ICESCAPE (Impacts of Climate on EcoSystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment) observed MUPB during July 2011. The simulated MUPBs occur every year during 1988–2013, mainly in between mid-June and mid-July. While the simulated under-ice blooms of moderate magnitude are widespread in the Chukchi Sea, MUPBs are less so. On average, the area fraction of MUPBs in the ice-covered areas of the Chukchi Sea during June and July is about 8%, which has been increasing at a rate of 2% yr–1 over 1988–2013. The simulated increase in the area fraction as well as primary productivity and chlorophyll a biomass is linked to an increase in light availability, in response to a decrease in sea ice and snow cover, and an increase in nutrient availability in the upper 100 m of the ocean, in conjunction with an intensification of ocean circulation. Simulated MUPBs are temporally sporadic and spatially patchy because of strong spatiotemporal variations of light and nutrient availability. However, as observed during ICESCAPE, there is a high likelihood that MUPBs may form at the shelf break, where the model simulates enhanced nutrient concentration that is seldom depleted between mid-June and mid-July because of generally robust shelf-break upwelling and other dynamic ocean processes. The occurrence of MUPBs at the shelf break is more frequent in the past decade than in the earlier period because of elevated light availability there. It may be even more frequent in the future if the sea ice and snow cover continues to decline such that light is more available at the shelf break to further boost the formation of MUPBs there.This work is supported by the NASA Cryosphere Program and Climate and Biological Response Program and the NSF Office of Polar Programs (Grant Nos. NNX12AB31G; NNX11AO91G; ARC-0901987)

Biophysical consequences of a relaxing Beaufort Gyre

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Zhang, J., Spitz, Y. H., Steele, M., Ashjian, C., Campbell, R., & Schweiger, A. Biophysical consequences of a relaxing Beaufort Gyre. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(2), (2020): e2019GL085990, doi:10.1029/2019GL085990.A biophysical model shows that Beaufort Gyre (BG) intensification in 2004–2016 is followed by relaxation in 2017–2018, based on a BG variability index. BG intensification leads to enhanced downwelling in the central Canada Basin (CCB) and upwelling along the coast. In the CCB, enhanced downwelling reduces nutrients, thus lowering primary productivity (PP) and plankton biomass. Enhanced upwelling along the coast and in parts of the Chukchi shelf/slope increases nutrients, leading to elevated PP/biomass in the Pacific Arctic Ocean (PAO) outside of the CCB. The overall PAO PP/biomass is dominated by the shelf/slope response and thus increases during BG intensification. As the BG relaxes in 2017–2018, these processes largely reverse, with increasing PP/biomass in the CCB and decreasing PP/biomass in most of the shelf/slope regions. Because the shelf/slope regions are much more productive than the CCB, BG relaxation has the tendency to reduce the overall production in the PAO.This work is funded by the NASA Cryosphere Program (NNX15AG68G and NNX17AD27G), the NSF Office of Polar Programs (PLR‐1416920, PLR‐1603259, PLR‐1603266, OPP‐1751363, PLR‐1602521, and PLR‐1503298), the NOAA Climate Program Office (NA15OAR4310170 and NA15OAR4320063AM170), and ONR (N00014‐17‐1‐2545). We thank Drs. Benjamin Rabe and Edward Doddridge for their constructive comments and Kay Runciman for graphics support. CFS reanalysis data used for model forcing are available online (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data‐access/model‐data/model‐datasets/climate‐forecast‐system‐version2‐cfsv2). Model results are in https://pscfiles.apl.uw.edu/zhang/BIOMAS168x180/ website

Severe Ice Cover on Great Lakes During Winter 2008–2009

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94591/1/eost17090.pd

Ecosystem model intercomparison of under-ice and total primary production in the Arctic Ocean

Previous observational studies have found increasing primary production (PP) in response to declining sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. In this study, under-ice PP was assessed based on three coupled ice-ocean-ecosystem models participating in the Forum for Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project. All models showed good agreement with under-ice measurements of surface chlorophyll-a concentration and vertically integrated PP rates during the main under-ice production period, from mid-May to September. Further, modeled 30-year (1980–2009) mean values and spatial patterns of sea ice concentration compared well with remote sensing data. Under-ice PP was higher in the Arctic shelf seas than in the Arctic Basin, but ratios of under-ice PP over total PP were spatially correlated with annual mean sea ice concentration, with higher ratios in higher ice concentration regions. Decreases in sea ice from 1980 to 2009 were correlated significantly with increases in total PP and decreases in the under-ice PP/total PP ratio for most of the Arctic, but nonsignificantly related to under-ice PP, especially in marginal ice zones. Total PP within the Arctic Circle increased at an annual rate of between 3.2 and 8.0 Tg C/yr from 1980 to 2009. This increase in total PP was due mainly to a PP increase in open water, including increases in both open water area and PP rate per unit area, and therefore much stronger than the changes in under-ice PP. All models suggested that, on a pan-Arctic scale, the fraction of under-ice PP declined with declining sea ice cover over the last three decades

Sustained Observations of Changing Arctic Coastal and Marine Environments and Their Potential Contribution to Arctic Maritime Domain Awareness: A Case Study in Northern Alaska

Increased maritime activities and rapid environmental change pose significant hazards, both natural and technological, to Arctic maritime operators and coastal communities. Currently, U.S. and foreign research activities account for more than half of the sustained hazard-relevant observations in the U.S. maritime Arctic, but hazard assessment and emergency response are hampered by a lack of dedicated hazard monitoring installations in the Arctic. In the present study, we consider a number of different sustained environmental observations associated with research into atmosphere-ice-ocean processes, and discuss how they can help support the toolkit of emergency responders. Building on a case study at Utqiaġvik (Barrow), Alaska, we investigate potential hazards in the seasonally ice-covered coastal zone. Guided by recent incidents requiring emergency response, we analyze data from coastal radar and other observing assets, such as an ice mass balance site and oceanographic moorings, in order to outline a framework for coastal maritime hazard assessments that builds on diverse observing systems infrastructure. This approach links Arctic system science research to operational information needs in the context of the development of a Common Operational Picture (COP) for Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) relevant for Arctic coastal and offshore regions. A COP in these regions needs to consider threats not typically part of the classic MDA framework, including sea ice or slow-onset hazards. An environmental security and MDA testbed is proposed for northern Alaska, building on research and community assets to help guide a hybrid research-operational framework that supports effective emergency response in Arctic regions.L’augmentation des activités maritimes et l’évolution rapide de l’environnement présentent des risques naturels et technologiques importants pour les opérateurs maritimes et les collectivités côtières de l’Arctique. Actuellement, les travaux de recherche, tant américains qu’étrangers, représentent plus de la moitié des observations prolongées liées aux dangers dans l’Arctique maritime américain, mais l’évaluation des risques et les interventions d’urgence sont entravées par le manque d’installations consacrées à la surveillance des dangers dans l’Arctique. Dans la présente étude, nous nous penchons sur diverses observations environnementales prolongées en matière de recherche sur les processus atmosphère-glace-océan et nous discutons de la façon dont elles peuvent contribuer aux interventions d’urgence. En nous appuyant sur une étude de cas faite à Utqiaġvik (Barrow), en Alaska, nous étudions les risques potentiels inhérents à la zone côtière couverte de glace saisonnière. Motivés par des incidents récents qui ont nécessité des interventions d’urgence, nous analysons les données provenant des radars côtiers et d’autres ressources d’observation, comme un site de bilan de masse des glaciers et des amarrages océanographiques, afin d’établir un cadre pour évaluer les risques maritimes côtiers, cadre qui s’appuie sur diverses infrastructures de systèmes d’observation. Cette approche relie la recherche scientifique sur le système arctique aux besoins d’information opérationnelle dans le contexte du développement d’une image commune de la situation opérationnelle (ICSO) pour la connaissance du domaine maritime (CDM) pertinente des zones côtières et extracôtières de l’Arctique. Une ICSO dans ces zones doit prendre en compte les menaces ne faisant généralement pas partie du cadre classique de la CDM, y compris la glace de mer ou les dangers à évolution lente. En s’appuyant sur des travaux de recherche et l’apport des collectivités, un banc d’essai en matière de sécurité environnementale et de CDM est proposé pour le nord de l’Alaska afin de guider un cadre hybride de recherche et d’opération qui favoriserait une intervention d’urgence efficace dans les régions arctiques