Climate policy: equity and national mitigation

A diverse range of approaches, including contributions based on national interest and local benefits of climate action, is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Now, research considers how equitable approaches may play a role

Staying in the EU would not be perfect. But it’s the best deal on offer

Is it time for Parliament to compromise and vote through May’s Brexit deal? Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE) argues that ‘no deal’ is not the only viable alternative to a deeply flawed deal. Yes, a second referendum would divide the country – but it is already divided. People are now in a better position to understand the choices on offer and many would like to be done with Brexit. Under May’s deal, negotiations will drag on for years

Both Brexit and the financial crisis highlight why economists should admit they can’t always get it right

The Bank of England’s chief economist recently said his profession was “to some degree in crisis” over its failure to predict the 2008 financial crash and – to a lesser extent – the apparent resilience of the UK economy after the Brexit vote. Dimitri Zenghelis looks at how economic forecasting works and explains that its models are not infallible. Economists should be honest about the limitations of their predictions

Let’s not make the same mistakes we did after the 2008 crisis

After the Global Financial Crisis, we failed to borrow to invest in a low-carbon economy and instead prematurely adopted austerity policies. The result, says Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE), was a wasted decade of rising emissions, stagnating average wages and eroded trust in institutions. We now badly need to encourage sustainable and inclusive growth

A green trade deal can save the Brexit negotiations

The combination of COVID-19 and the need for a post-Brexit trade deal provides an opportunity to push for the decarbonisation of the economy. It’s time for a post-Brexit green trade deal, argues Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE). If done correctly, such a deal could give all of Europe a comparative advantage with regard to resource efficiency and decarbonisation globally

BRINO satisfies no-one. The Brexit wrangles are far from over

As the cabinet pores over Theresa May’s Brexit deal, where do we stand? Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE) says even if the deal passes ministers and Parliament, the uncertainty is far from over

‘Hurricane Brexit’ – or why economists should admit they can’t always get it right

The Bank of England’s chief economist recently said his profession was “to some degree in crisis” over its failure to predict the 2008 financial crash and – to a lesser extent – the apparent resilience of the UK economy after the Brexit vote. Dimitri Zenghelis looks at how economic forecasting works and explains that its models are not infallible. Economists should be honest about the limitations of their predictions

Fog in the Channel: reports of a Brexit boost are at best premature

A spate of surprisingly upbeat indicators published in August have prompted some to declare that the economic impact of the vote to leave the European Union has been overstated. Tempting though it is to believe this, such views are at best premature, writes Dimitri Zenghelis. We have not yet left the EU and businesses are waiting to find out whether the UK will stay in the Single Market

Negative interest rates are an opportunity for the UK to invest in sustainable infrastructure

The reservoir of free capital can help boost the UK’s productive capacity and secure a low-carbon future, writes Dimitri Zengheli

The importance of looking forward to manage risks: submission to the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures

Submission made to the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, which was set up in December 2015 by the Financial Stability Board to “develop voluntary, consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures for use by companies in providing information to investors, lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders”. The Task Force is chaired by Michael Bloomberg, and published its initial findings in March 2016. It is due to publish its final report by the end of 2016. The submission states: “[There is a] gap between what politicians have signed up to in Paris and what markets and fossil fuel companies are assuming. This gap should alarm policy-makers and central bankers: it suggests either asymmetric information or a lack of credibility in policies” The authors argue that companies should not only disclose the “carbon exposure” of their past activities, but they should also undertake an assessment of forward-looking business risks. They call for companies to carry out ‘stress tests’ for the risks associated with climate change, including business risks from new policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to disclose to investors their findings, as well as their strategies for dealing with those risks