Would MERCOSUR’s Exports to the EU Profit from Trade Liberalisation? Some General Insights and a Simulation Study for Argentina

In this study, MERCOSUR\'s past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR\'s exports\' growth potential in a liberalised EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR\'s exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case in order to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalisation.MERCOSUR-EU trade trade barriers sectoral study panel data

Road and Maritime Transport Costs: A Comparative Analysis of Spanish Exports to Poland and Turkey

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of maritime and road transport costs for Spanish exports to Poland and Turkey and investigate the different effects of these costs on international trade. First, we investigate the extent to which maritime and road transport costs depend on different factors such as unit values, distances, transport conditions, service structures, and service quality. Second, we analyze the relative importance of road and maritime transport costs as determinants of trade flows. The data on transport costs are drawn from a new database compiled from primary data sources. The main results of this investigation identify the central variables influencing road and maritime transportation costs: for both modes, transport conditions are strong determinants, whereas efficiency and service quality are more important for maritime transport costs, and geographical distance is more important for road transport. Road and maritime transport costs are important explanatory factors of exports and they seem to deter trade to a greater extent than road or maritime transit time when considered endogenously determined.Transport costs, transport mode, Spanish exports, international trade

Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows

This paper applies the gravity trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade, and trade potential following the agreements reached recently between both trade blocks. The model ist tested for a sample of 19 countries, the four formal members of Mercosur plus Chile and the fifteen members of the European Union. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the random effects gravity model. Furthermore, a number of variables, namely, infrastructure, income differences and exchange rates added to the standard gravity equation, are found to be important determinants of bilateral trade flows.Gravity equation, panel data, infrastructure, integration

Would MERCOSUR´s Exports to the EU Profit from Trade Liberalisation? Some General Insights and a Simulation Study for Argentina

In this study, MERCOSUR's past exports to the EU under the protectionist environment of the period between 1988 and 1996 are examined and an attempt is made to determine MERCOSUR's exports' growth potential in a liberalised EU market. A sectoral study is considered indispensable since tariff and non-tariff trade barriers vary strongly among sectors. The influence of the macroeconomic environment on MERCOSUR's exports is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. A simulation study based on a quite comprehensive evaluation of EU trade barriers is performed for the Argentinean case in order to evaluate the impact of EU trade liberalisation.MERCOSUR-EU trade, trade barriers, sectoral study, panel data

Explaining MERCOSUR sectoral exports to the EU: The role of economic and geographical distance

We used a variant of the gravity equation to classify products according to their sensitivity to geographical and economic distance. We argue that products which are highly sensitive to economic distance (proxied with absolute differences in per capita income) and barely sensitive to geographical distance are the best candidates for future trade between the European Union and Mercosur. We estimated our empirical model by applying panel data methodology to allow for trading pair specific effects. In the estimation we made use of two additional explanatory variables which are found to be relevant when explaining trade, namely, infrastructure and exchange rates. Our results support the view that different products have a different sensitivity to distance and highlight the importance of using disaggregated data when analysing international trade flows.gravity model, panel data, sectoral trade flows, distance

The interplay of export supply and the real exchange rate. Evidence for Mercosur exports to the EU.

This paper applies a dynamic macroeconomic trade model to assess Mercosur-European Union trade. Looking at export supply of Mercosur countries (the four formal members plus Chile), the role of the real exchange rate, income and the income-absorption surplus or deficit are evaluated. Special emphasis is put on the reaction of exports with respect to changes of the real exchange rate. The model is tested for a sample of five countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) over the period of 1961-1996. A panel data analysis is used to disentangle the time invariant country-specific effects and to capture the relationships between the relevant variables over time. We find that the fixed effect model is to be preferred to the common effect model. The variables income and income-absorption surplus are found to be important determinants of trade flows. The real exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on export supply in the long-term, whereas current and past changes in the real exchange rate seem to play no role for current total export trade in the short-and medium-term. Having this latter time horizon, it could be shown that Mercosur´s total exports react extremely parsimoniously and slowly with respect to changes in the real exchange rate. This phenomenon could be due to the large share of agricultural and forestry products in Mercosur´s exports.export supply, exchange rates, dynamic panel analysis

The Economic Benefits of Giving Aid in Terms of Donors` Exports

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the link between bilateral and multilateral foreign aid and exports. There are three primary findings from this approach. First, in the long term, the average return, in terms of an increase in the donor’s level of goods exports, is approximately $ 2.15 US for every aid dollar spent on bilateral aid. Second, multilateral aid has a positive effect on export levels only in the short term, whereas in the long term, the effect is negative. Third, aid from other donors does not give rise to a displacement effect for a given donor-recipient trade relationship. This paper also makes comparisons among donors and finds that aid has a positive and significant effect on most donors’ export levels.exports, foreign aid, donors, panel data, sample selection, GLM

Effects of Regional Trade Agreements Using a Static and Dynamic Gravity Equation

This paper evaluates the static effects of preferential agreements between several economic blocs and areas using a dynamic gravity equation. The main aim is to investigate whether regionalism has fostered intra or/and extra blocs international trade, taking into account the existence of heterogeneity over time and across countries and testing whether a dynamic model is preferred to the traditional static specification of the gravity model. This paper argues that the gravity model should be best estimated using Blundell and Bond’s (1998) system-GMM estimator. This procedure remedies some econometric problems such as regressor endogeneity, measurement error and weak instruments, and controls for timeinvariant country-specific effects such as distance or common language.Gravity equation, integration, international trade, regionalism

Modeling the dynamics of Spain\'s Relative Export Strength

In this paper we assess the current relevance of Ricardian theory. Relative prices, labor costs, and productivity are evaluated as determinants of a country’s international competitiveness at the industry level. Working with detailed data on unit values and with industry data on productivity, we empirically implement a MacDougall-type model for Spanish and French trade to Brazil, China, Japan, and the U.S.. The period under study is 1980 to 2001 and we distinguish in our analysis between homogenous, reference-priced, and differentiated goods. Our results indicate that Ricardian theory is currently only valid for explaining trade with developing countries while other factors are of importance for developed economies. Overall price competitiveness is of importance, but for differentiated goods, factors distinct from prices seem to determine export success.

Competitiveness – A Comparison of China and Mexico

Latin American countries have lost competitiveness in world markets in comparison to China over the last two decades. The main purpose of this study is to examine the causes of this development. To this end an augmented Ricardian model is estimated using panel data. The explanatory variables considered are productivity, unit labor costs, unit values, trade costs, price levels (in PPP), and real exchange rates in relative terms. Due to data restrictions, China’s relative exports (to the US, Argentina, Japan, Korea, UK, Germany, and Spain) will be compared to Mexico’s exports for a number of sectors over a period of eleven years. Panel and pooled estimation techniques (SUR-estimation, panel Feasible Generalized Least Squares (panel/pooled FGLS)) will be utilized to better control for country-specific effects (differences between American, Argentinian, Japanese, Korean, German, British, and Spanish markets), cross-section specific (sector-specific) effects, and correlation over time.Ricardian model of trade, panel data models, panel Feasible Generalized Least Squares, Seemingly Unrelated (SUR) estimation