1 research outputs found
Associations between eight earth observation-derived climate variables and enteropathogen infection: An independent participant data meta-analysis of surveillance studies with broad spectrum nucleic acid diagnostics
Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogenâspecific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogensâadenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardiaâwas matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation datasetâprecipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, nonâlinear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7âday average temperaturesâa relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69â0.85) above 28°Câwhile ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36â1.50), in the 20â35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species\u27 risk increased following lowerâthanâaverage rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrheaâcausing agents as the global climate changes