Fiscal Response to Terrorism in Pakistan: The Role of Institutions

This study empirically estimates the fiscal consequences of terrorism in Pakistan by using annual time series data from 1984 to 2016. By employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique, the study has gauged the impact of terrorist incidents on two important facets of fiscal policy, namely, tax revenue and defense spending. The results reveal that terrorism has detrimental ramifications for fiscal policy in Pakistan. Specifically, on the one hand, an increase in terrorist incidents tends to bring a fall in tax revenue while on the other hand, they induce a rise in defense outlays, thus deteriorating both fronts of the fiscal position. Notably, the moderating role of institutional quality appears significant and indicates that institutional quality has not only a significant direct impact on fiscal policy, but it also helps in completely mitigating (reducing) the harmful impact of terrorism on defense spending (tax revenue) in Pakistan. These findings suggest that there is a need to take appropriate steps for strengthening institutional setup to control the fallouts of terrorism on fiscal behavior of the government of Pakistan. Keywords: Terrorism; Tax Revenue; Institutional Quality; ARDL JEL Classification: E62; H2; E02; H5; F3

Monitoring and Modelling Morphological Changes in Rivers Using RS and GIS Techniques

River geomorphological investigation issues have received little attention in most countries of the world. Such processes become a pressing necessity due to climate change and anticipated events of extraordinary surges and dry seasons, which may debilitate the security of adjacent and downstream cities, particularly in locales that are exceedingly delicate and influenced by climatic changes. Al-Abbasia reach is a river that runs through the middle of the Euphrates River and is known for its numerous bends and meanders. The study of hydraulic structures such as barrages can provide important information about their influences on morphological processes in river reaches near the barrage upstream and downstream. Hydraulic analysis is made of the river behavior in u/s and d/s of hydraulic structures like barrages as a result of sediment deposition and erosion in u/s and d/s. A study, i.e., research on the impacts of the Abbassia barrage on the river system, has been conducted to address this issue using multi-temporal Landsat satellite data from 1976 to 2022 provided by the USGS. The study reach is located 5 kilometres upstream and 5 kilometres downstream of the Abbassia reach. Following the construction of the barrage, which had an impact on the sedimentation and geometry of the river, morphological variations took place in this part of the Al Abbassia reach. In this study, morphological changes throughout 49 years between 1976 and 2022 were investigated utilising remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) approaches. Additionally, four image groups from three separate decades were used to perform change detection (1990–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2022). In this study, a monitoring system using Landsat-3 MSS: 1985, Landsat-5 TM: 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and Landsat-8 OLI: 2010, 2011, 2015, 2021, 2022 were employed to map river planform changes. The long-term comparison of this series of satellite images and historical maps for the period 1976–2022 indicates a continuation of change in the reach study with a rate of approximately 56, 33, 97, and 55% for upstream and 19%, 26%, 3%, and 45% for downstream for the width, area, deposition, and erosion, respectively. Furthermore, it is observed that there is a shift in river course within 200 m downstream of the barrage for the period of 1985–1990. The findings of this study, which monitor river morphological change at finer temporal and spatial resolutions, are crucial for promoting sustainable river management. They also aid in the investigation of river behaviour, which is necessary for providing the best management possible and overcoming the difficulties posed by this important research issue. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-03-03 Full Text: PD

Investigating the Hydraulic Behaviours of an Alluvial Meandering River Reach Between Two Barrages

The Abassia-Shammia is a meandering stream in Najaf province. Predicting and estimating the flow behavior of meandering rivers is crucial for designing hydraulic structures in an accurate manner in the vicinity and conducting environmental and ecological studies. The hydraulic properties of an alluvial stream are typically subject to change due to its location between two barrages. In this study, HEC RAS 2D, developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System, was employed to simulate the hydraulic performance of the Euphrates River reach between two series of barrages, i.e., Abbassia and Shammia. Reliable input data, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), land cover classification, and data for the 2023 hydrograph as a boundary condition, were utilized to develop the hydraulic model. The model was calibrated by using the observed water surface elevation from field measurements downstream of Abbassia to match the ones calculated by the model. Hence, the hydraulic model of the Euphrates River was created using an appropriate Manning roughness coefficient value (n = 0.04) based on the most suitable values of statistical indices, correlation coefficient (R²), and root mean squared error (RMSE) to assess the agreement between the observed and simulated data throughout the calibration and validation phases. To visualize the HECRAS2D output, the hydraulic maps for the study region were presented. The ten cross-sections from the field study (investigated at the same period of flow hydrograph) were presented for modeling to emphasize the river's hydraulic behaviors. Based on the results, the water surface elevation ranged between 19.1–29.2 m.a.s.l., and the flow velocity was 2.50 m/s. Meanwhile, the values of bed shear stress (Pa) and the water depth (m) ranged between 0.1 Pa and 8.93 m for the entire river. The results also proved the superiority of the HEC RAS2D model to reliably represent the hydraulic performance of the Euphrates River reach located between the two barrages. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2024-010-05-013 Full Text: PD

Antibacterial Activity, Phytochemical and Proximate Analysis of Moringa Oleifera Seeds Against Clinical Isolates

This study was carried out to determine the antibacterial activity, phytochemical and proximate analysis of Moringa oleifera seeds extracts against some clinical isolates. The antibacterial activity for Aqueous and Ethanol extracts was determined using the agar diffusion method. The Phytochemical Screening of the seed was carried out using Qualitative Analysis (QA) and proximate analysis was carried out according to AOAC methods. The aqueous seed extract showed varying degrees of antimicrobial activity over that of ethanol extract on the microorganisms tested. Two species (Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella typhi) presented the lowest MIC of 31.25 and 125mg/ml compared to MBC of 250mg/ml respectively. The phytochemical revealed the presence of Flavonoids, Tannins, Alkaloid, and Saponins. The Proximate Analysis revealed high concentration of Crude lipid (35.58 ± 0.42%) and lowest concentration of Moisture content (2.03 ± 0.01%). This study shows that moringa oleifera seeds can be as effective as synthetic medicine to combat pathogenic microorganisms if properly utilized. Keywords:   Moringa oleifera seeds; Proximate analysis; Phytochemicals; Staphylococcus aureu

IMMUNOHISTOCHEMICAL EXPRESSION OF THE PROMISING THERAPEUTIC TARGET (HUMAN EPIDERMAL GROWTH FACTOR RECEPTOR 2/NEU) IN IRAQI PATIENTS WITH MEDULLOBLASTOMA

Objectives: With the advent of ongoing novel modalities toward the treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)/NEU - positive malignancies, the serious side effects of chemoradiotherapy have been minimized. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the patterns of immunohistochemical expression of the promising therapeutic target (HER2/NEU) among Iraqi patients with medulloblastoma in an attempt to provide basic histological information's that would help in future clinical researches.Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, 42 formalin - fixed paraffin - embedded tissue blocks represent cases of surgically removed medulloblastomas were retrieved from the archived materials in a specialized surgical hospital at Bagdad. The histological diagnosis had been revised, and all cases were stained by the immunohistochemical technique with HER2/NEU antibody and assessed independently by three pathologists.Results: Out of 42 cases, only two which represent 4.76% showed positive results manifested by a strong membranous staining when immunohistochemically evaluated using the same scoring system established for HER2/NEU in breast cancer. 14 cases (33.3%) showed incomplete membranous and five cases (11.9%) showed only cytoplasmic reaction patterns.Conclusion: The rate of expression of HER2/NEU in medulloblastoma among Iraqi patients is very low and found only in aggressive anaplastic histological type when immunohistochemically evaluated using the same scoring system established for HER2/NEU in breast cancer. However, a good number of negative cases showed cytoplasmic and incomplete membranous staining patterns highlighting the importance of establishing medulloblastoma - specific HER2/NEU scoring criteria and testing methods to discover the unique feature of expression of this therapeutic target in medulloblastoma.Â

Impact of weight loss achieved through gastric sleeve surgery with circulating level of ghrelin hormone in obese Iraqi subjects.

Back ground: The epidemic of obesity is a major health problem in the developed world with a great influence on morbidity and mortality. The aim of study: to evaluate serum ghrelin levels achieved through LSG and on insulin resistance and the serial changes of insulin concentration in obese patients following gastric sleeve. Patients and methods: twenty four patients underwent LSG with 25 controls were selected. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), lipid profile, fasting blood sugar (FBS), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting insulin, QUICKI and ghrelin hormone concentrations were measured for controls and patients prior LSG, then one month and three months post-surgery. Results: A significant decline was noticed in BMI, WC, TC, TG, LDL-cholesterol, fasting insulin, and ghrelin, with significant increase in QUICKI in patients undergone LSG with significant differences in all studied parameters between patients and controls. A negative correlation was noticed between ghrelin and BMI in patients before sleeve gastrectomy. Conclusion: Ghrelin is a hormone closely linked with obesity taking into account the marked loss in appetite in the period after laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Research Process and the Value of Publishing in High Impact Scholarly Journals: Prospect for Authors

Scholarly journals are still the most important media for disseminating product of research information concerned with transmission of correct results on right time and to right audience. Nowadays, researchers are faced with variety of challenges due to not observing ethics and rules of publication in high impact journals. Communicating research findings is an essential step in the research process. This article employed the philosophical assumptions of the Constructivism with focus on complexity, richness, multiple interpretations and meaning-making inductively through an Integrative Literature Review which was used to develop this conceptual paper. The aim of the article is to explore the different stages in research process using the Onion Model, to help researchers create a better organised methodology and avoid plagiarism and to extensively describe the basic structure of a research article, identifying the common pitfalls and recommend strategies to avoid them. Importance of literature review and its types such as Narrative, Systematic, Argumentative, Integrative and Theoretical literature review and choice of methodology are also discussed. Further, the article describes the review process for publishing scientific research and ways of identifying predatory publishers and journals. The article concludes that peer-reviewed journals are the forum for communicating research findings, and recommend that researchers should give more concern to principles and ethics of how to write a publishable paper in indexed journals and avoid plagiarism and predatory