Nonlinear exchange rate transmission in the euro area: A multivariate smooth transition regression approach

© 2018, Economics Bulletin. This paper examines the presence of nonlinear behavior in the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for a set of euro area countries. We propose to solve the endogeneity problem inherent in single-equation-based methods by implementing the family of nonlinear vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models. Using quarterly data that span from 1980:1 to 2015:4, linearity tests reveal that the ERPT responds nonlinearly to economic growth. According to the pass-through elasticities, exchange rate transmission differs significantly between the identified economic activity regimes. However, our results underscore the presence of heterogeneous profiles across the euro area economies. For some countries, the ERPT is higher during expansions than during recessions; however, the result is reversed for others. Our findings emphasize the role of a declining ERPT, as it may foster business cycle synchronization and inflation convergence within the monetary union

Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through: Does business cycle matter?

© 2018-Center for Economic Integration, Sejong Institution, Sejong University, All Rights Reserved. This paper investigates the nonlinear dynamics in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through of the Euro area. We implement the class of logistic smooth transition models to explore the role of the business cycle in driving nonlinearity. Using quarterly data over the period of January 1980 ~ April 2015, our results provide strong evidence of nonlinearity in 7 out of 10 Eurozone countries. We show that the exchange rate transmission to inflation respond to the economic activity in the nonlinear manner, that is, exchange rate pass-through is higher during expansion than recession periods. By monitoring the different patterns of growth and exchange rate pass-through, European monetary authorities could enhance inflation convergence within the Euro area