Implications of EU Accession for International Migration: An Assessment of Potential Migration Pressure

This paper estimates the potential migration from eight EU accession countries as well as Bulgaria and Romania as a result of the eastern enlargement. The experience of migration from Greece, Portugal and Spain is used to estimate the parameters of a migration function, exploiting panel estimation techniques. The results from the models are then used for so-called double out of sample extrapolations - for ten countries that are not within the estimated sample and for the time period in the future. It was found that potential migration flows from central and eastern Europe will be modest. Moreover, legal introduction of free movement of workers seems not to increase migration significantly, contrary to what one might expect.international migration, migration projections, EU enlargement, panel estimation

Self-Selection and the Returns to Geographic Mobility: What Can Be Learned from the German Reunification "Experiment"

This paper investigates the causal effect of geographic labour mobility on income. The returns to German East-West migration and commuting are estimated exploiting the structure of centrally planned economies and a "natural experiment" of German reunification for identification. I find that migration premium is insignificantly different from zero, the returns for commuters equal to four percent of the mean of the total income, and the local average treatment effects for compliers are insignificant. In addition, estimation results suggest no positive self-selection for migrants, and some evidence of positive self-selection for commuters. Based on these results, moving West does not appear to be a highly rewarded option in Germany.returns to geographic mobility, causality, treatment effects

Individual support for economic and political changes: Evidence from transition countries, 1991-2004

Using a unique dataset, we propose a new measure of public evaluation of transitional reforms and study, for the first time, the evolution of support for economic and political reforms in 14 transition economies over 1991-2004. We show that support for economic changes has been increasing over time after an initial dip, while support for political reforms has generally been higher. Support attitudes are lower among the old, less skilled, unemployed, poor, and those living in the CIS countries, especially during the 1990s. We also find evidence that transition-related hardship, opinions on the speed of reforms, political preferences and preferences towards redistribution, ideology and social capital matter. Finally, we show that preferences for state ownership and the quality of political institutions contribute mostly to explaining the lower levels of support in the CIS countries.political economy; public support; reforms; transition

The Gender Earnings Gap inside a Russian Firm: First Evidence from Personnel Data - 1997 to 2002 ; Updated Version

Using unique personnel data from one Russian firm for the years 1997 to 2002 we study the size, development and determinants of the gender earnings gap in an internal labor market during late transition. The gap is sizable but declines strongly over the entire period. Gender earnings differentials are largest for production workers who constitute the largest employee group in the firm. Various decompositions show that these differentials and their dynamics remain largely unexplained by observable characteristics at the mean and across the wage distribution. Our analysis also reveals that the earnings differentials for production workers largely stem from job assignment, as women are predominately assigned to lower paid jobs. Earnings gaps within job levels are small and almost fully explained by observed characteristics.Gender earnings gap, personnel data, internal labor market, Russia

Children, Kitchen, Church: Does Ethnicity Matter?

Gender role attitudes are well-known determinants of female labor supply. This paper examines the strength of those attitudes using time diaries on childcare, food management and religious activities provided by the British Time Use Survey. Given the low labor force participation of females from ethnic minorities, the role of ethnicity in forming those attitudes and influencing time spent for "traditional" female activities is of particular interest. The paper finds that white females in the UK have a higher probability to participate in the labor force than non-white females. Non-white females spend more time for religious activities and, to some extent, for food management than white females, while there are no ethnic differences for time spent on childcare. The ethnicity effect is also heterogenous across different socio-economic groups. Hence, cultural differences across ethnicities are significant, and do affect work behavior.Time use, ethnic minorities, gender, UK

Transition Fatigue? Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Data

The transition process has had different distributional impacts across different interest groups and countries. These have led to differences in the support for transition. In this paper, we study support attitudes for both the economic and political transition using data from the New Barometer Surveys for 14 transition economies from 1991 to 2004. We document that the overall support is low and heterogeneous across countries and individuals. Support attitudes are lower among the old, less skilled, unemployed, poor, and those living in the CIS countries. There seems to be an increasing trend in the support for the economic transition in most countries. Our findings are robust to changes in the definition and measurement of the dependent variable. We also find evidence that transition-related hardship, opinions on the speed of reforms, political preferences and preferences towards redistribution, ideology and social capital matter. Finally, we show that individual preferences for secure jobs, the role of state and trust in politicians as well as better institutions, in particular, the quality of governance, seem to contribute mostly to explaining the lower levels of the support in the CIS countries.political economy, transition, subjective attitudes

Scale, Diversity, and Determinants of Labour Migration in Europe

While global migration is increasing, internal EU migration flows have remained low. This paper contributes to a better understanding of the determinants and scale of European migration. It surveys previous historical experiences and empirical findings including the recent Eastern enlargements. The determinants of migration before and after the 2004 enlargement and in the EU15 and EU10 countries are analysed using individual data on migration intentions. In addition, perceptions about the size of migration after the enlargement are studied. The potential emigrant from both old and new EU member states tends to be young, better educated and to live in larger cities. People from the EU10 with children are less likely to move after enlargement in comparison to those without family. There exists a correlation between individual perceptions about the scale of migration and actual flows. Better educated and left-oriented individuals in the EU15 are less likely to perceive these flows as important.EU Eastern enlargement, migration intentions, determinants of labour migration, migration

Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants and Non-Citizens in the EU: An East-West Comparison

The starkly different histories and institutions in the eastern and western member states of the European Union (EU) suggest different roles of being non-native in these two regions. In this paper we study the roles of foreign origin and citizenship in the comparative East-West perspective. Our results indicate that while it is immigrant status that is of key importance in the western EU member states, both immigrant status and citizenship matter in the eastern EU member states, their roles depending on gender. We find some evidence that it is the Russian ethnic minority in Estonia and Latvia that drives the relationships between being non-citizen and labor market outcomes that we find in the eastern EU member states.employment, earnings, labor market, Eastern Europe, citizenship, immigrant

Do Ethnic Minorities "Stretch" Their Time? Evidence from the UK Time Use Survey

This paper investigates the effect of ethnicity on time spent on overlapped household production, work and leisure activities employing the 2000-2001 UK Time Use Survey. We find that, unconditionally, white females manage to "stretch" their time the most by an additional 233 minutes per day and non-white men "stretch" their time the least. The three secondary activities that are most often combined with other (primary) activities in terms of time spent on them are social activities including resting, passive leisure and childcare. Regression results indicate that non-white ethnic minorities engage less in multitasking than whites, with Pakistani and Bangladeshi males spending the least time. The gap is present for both ethnic minority males and females, although females in general engage more in multitasking. The effect is also heterogeneous across different sub-groups. We then discuss several potential interpretations and investigate whether these differences in behavior may also relate to opportunity costs of non-market time, different preferences and tastes of ethnic minorities, integration experience, family composition, household productivity and other.multitasking, time use, ethnic minorities, UK

Do Ethnic Minorities "Stretch" Their Time?: Evidence from the UK Time Use Survey

This paper investigates the effect of ethnicity on time spent on overlapped household production, work and leisure activities employing the 2000-2001 UK Time Use Survey. We find that, unconditionally, white females manage to "stretch" their time the most by an additional 233 minutes per day and non-white men "stretch" their time the least. The three secondary activities that are most often combined with other (primary) activities in terms of time spent on them are social activities including resting, passive leisure and childcare. Regression results indicate that non-white ethnic minorities engage less in multitasking than whites, with Pakistani and Bangladeshi males spending the least time. The gap is present for both ethnic minority males and females, although females in general engage more in multitasking. The effect is also heterogeneous across different sub-groups. We then discuss several potential interpretations and investigate whether these differences in behavior may also relate to opportunity costs of non-market time, different preferences and tastes of ethnic minorities, integration experience, family composition, household productivity and other.Time use, multitasking, ethnic minorities, UK