Simulations of Colorado Potato Beetle Development in Poland Based on Four Climate Change Scenarios

The simulations were conducted using actual data and virtual data. The actual data were recorded in the period of 1986–2005 at 16 localities representing 16 regions of Poland. The virtual data were obtained after transformation of the recorded data to reflect a temperature changes under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios according to giss_e2_r climate model. The model used in the study was based on scientific reports describing the influence of temperature on acceleration of the onset of egg laying and on successive stages of Colorado potato beetle as well as publications on the effects of photoperiod on the pest diapause. The study showed a growing threat to potato from Colorado potato beetles as a result of the temperature rise. The fastest development of the pest appeared in simulations under RCP8.5 scenario. Of 16 regions surveyed in the study, the south-western part of Poland was found to be most threatened by Colorado potato beetle as a result of anticipated climate change

Decision suport systems in plant protection – the challenges for science and extenssion service

Potrzeby polskich producentów zbóż, rzepaku, buraka oraz innych upraw polowych w zakresie przekazywania za pośrednictwem Internetu informacji o konieczności podejmowania chemicznej ochrony upraw nie są zaspokajane w stopniu zadowalającym. Istnieje więc potrzeba intensykacji wysiłków umożliwiających zmniejszenie dystansu pomiędzy Polską i przodującymi w dziedzinie wykorzystania Internetu w ochronie roślin, krajami Ameryki Północnej i Europy Zachodniej. Realizację tak sformułowanego zadania należy rozpocząć od stworzenia warunków umożliwiających intensykację badań ukierunkowanych na opracowanie modeli matematycznych szacujących zagrożenie upraw ze strony agrofagów. Realizację tego celu powinno przyspieszyć utworzenie Wielkopolskiego Centrum Systemów Wspomagających Podejmowanie Decyzji w Ochronie Roślin, składającego się z dwóch współpracujących jednostek: Centrum Modelowania Rozwoju Patogenów oraz Centrum Oprogramowania, Walidacji i Upowszechniania Systemów Doradczych.The needs of Polish farmers in the area of transmission via the Internet the information about optimal dates for pesticide use are not meet satisfactorily. There is therefore an urgent need to make efforts for reducing the distance between Poland and leading, in the field of Internet use in plant protection, countries of North America and Western Europe. Realization of that task should be begun by creating conditions for increasing research aimed at developing mathematical models for estimating the risk of crops from pests. The establishment of the Centre for decision support systems in Plant Protection consisting of two cooperating institutions: Center for the Development of Pathogen Development Modeling and Software Center, Validation and Dissemination of Advisory Systems should speed up realization of this objective

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the latency period of leaf rust on triticale in Poland

Disease development in plants is strongly dependent on weather conditions, with temperature playing a particularly significant role by influencing latency period duration. Using two models describing the relationship between latency period and temperature, we performed simulations aimed at predicting changes in the latency period of leaf rust (Puccina recondita f. sp. tritici) on triticale in response to expected climate change. The simulations were based on meteorological data recorded in the period 1986–2005 at locations representing 16 provinces in Poland and based on values obtained after transformation of the observed data to reflect temperature changes under four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) according to the giss_e2_r climate model. In all scenarios, the results for the two triticale cultivars studied, Witon (vulnerable to P. recondita) and Gniewko (less susceptible), showed a threat of faster development (shorter leaf rust latency period) on triticale triggered by climate change in south-east and south-central Poland than in other regions. The results also showed an increased probability of future regional diversification of leaf rust latency period duration on vulnerable triticale cultivars, opportunities for earlier start of leaf rust epidemics on triticale in Poland and an increase in final disease severity in comparison with 1986–2005