Power load forecasting

For the electric power factory, the power load forecasting problem, including load forecasting and consumption predicting, is crucial to work planning. According to the predicting time, it can be divided into long-term forecasting, mid-term forecasting, short-term forecasting and ultra-short-term forecasting. The long-term and mid-term forecasting are mainly used for macro control, and their forecasting time arrange are from one year to ten years and from one month to twelve months respectively. The short-term forecasting which prediction time is from one day to seven days is used in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and some other areas. Predicting the situation in next 24 hours is named as the ultra-short-term forecasting which is used for failure prediction, emergency treatment and frequency control. In general, the forecast accuracy is different for different prediction time. The longer is the time, the lower accurate is the prediction. As the unique power supplier in Huizhou (China), Huizhou Electric Power wants to know the solution to the problems: 1. Prediction of the total electrical consumption and the peak load of the city in 2006 based on the economy development and the feature of the city. 2. Monthly prediction of the consumption and peak load in 2006. 3. Daily prediction of the consumption and peak load from July 10th to 16th in 2006. 4. Prediction of the load every 15 minutes of July 10th. 5. Real-time forecasting which means to amend the existing load prediction for next 15 minute

Determination of the electronic structure of bilayer graphene from infrared spectroscopy results

We present an experimental study of the infrared conductivity, transmission, and reflection of a gated bilayer graphene and their theoretical analysis within the Slonczewski-Weiss-McClure (SWMc) model. The infrared response is shown to be governed by the interplay of the interband and the intraband transitions among the four bands of the bilayer. The position of the main conductivity peak at the charge neutrality point is determined by the interlayer tunneling frequency. The shift of this peak as a function of the gate voltage gives information about less known parameters of the SWMc model, in particular, those responsible for the electron-hole and sublattice asymmetries. These parameter values are shown to be consistent with recent electronic structure calculations for the bilayer graphene and the SWMc parameters commonly used for the bulk graphite.Comment: (v2) 11 pages, 7 figures; Important typo fixes and bibliography addition

Understanding the white-light flare on 2012 March 9 : Evidence of a two-step magnetic reconnection

We attempt to understand the white-light flare (WLF) that was observed on 2012 March 9 with a newly constructed multi-wavelength solar telescope called the Optical and Near-infrared Solar Eruption Tracer (ONSET). We analyzed WLF observations in radio, H-alpha, white-light, ultraviolet, and X-ray bands. We also studied the magnetic configuration of the flare via the nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolation and the vector magnetic field observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Continuum emission enhancement clearly appeared at the 3600 angstrom and 4250 angstrom bands, with peak contrasts of 25% and 12%, respectively. The continuum emission enhancement closely coincided with the impulsive increase in the hard X-ray emission and a microwave type III burst at 03:40 UT. We find that the WLF appeared at one end of either the sheared or twisted field lines or both. There was also a long-lasting phase in the H-alpha and soft X-ray bands after the white-light emission peak. In particular, a second, yet stronger, peak appeared at 03:56 UT in the microwave band. This event shows clear evidence that the white-light emission was caused by energetic particles bombarding the lower solar atmosphere. A two-step magnetic reconnection scenario is proposed to explain the entire process of flare evolution, i.e., the first-step magnetic reconnection between the field lines that are highly sheared or twisted or both, and the second-step one in the current sheet, which is stretched by the erupting flux rope. The WLF is supposed to be triggered in the first-step magnetic reconnection at a relatively low altitude.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, published in A&A Lette

Beyond Counting: New Perspectives on the Active IPv4 Address Space

In this study, we report on techniques and analyses that enable us to capture Internet-wide activity at individual IP address-level granularity by relying on server logs of a large commercial content delivery network (CDN) that serves close to 3 trillion HTTP requests on a daily basis. Across the whole of 2015, these logs recorded client activity involving 1.2 billion unique IPv4 addresses, the highest ever measured, in agreement with recent estimates. Monthly client IPv4 address counts showed constant growth for years prior, but since 2014, the IPv4 count has stagnated while IPv6 counts have grown. Thus, it seems we have entered an era marked by increased complexity, one in which the sole enumeration of active IPv4 addresses is of little use to characterize recent growth of the Internet as a whole. With this observation in mind, we consider new points of view in the study of global IPv4 address activity. Our analysis shows significant churn in active IPv4 addresses: the set of active IPv4 addresses varies by as much as 25% over the course of a year. Second, by looking across the active addresses in a prefix, we are able to identify and attribute activity patterns to network restructurings, user behaviors, and, in particular, various address assignment practices. Third, by combining spatio-temporal measures of address utilization with measures of traffic volume, and sampling-based estimates of relative host counts, we present novel perspectives on worldwide IPv4 address activity, including empirical observation of under-utilization in some areas, and complete utilization, or exhaustion, in others.Comment: in Proceedings of ACM IMC 201

Exotic mesons from quantum chromodynamics with improved gluon and quark actions on the anisotropic lattice

Hybrid (exotic) mesons, which are important predictions of quantum chromodynamics (QCD), are states of quarks and anti-quarks bound by excited gluons. First principle lattice study of such states would help us understand the role of ``dynamical'' color in low energy QCD and provide valuable information for experimental search for these new particles. In this paper, we apply both improved gluon and quark actions to the hybrid mesons, which might be much more efficient than the previous works in reducing lattice spacing error and finite volume effect. Quenched simulations were done at $\beta=2.6$ and on a $\xi=3$ anisotropic $12^3\times36$ lattice using our PC cluster. We obtain $2013 \pm 26 \pm 71$ MeV for the mass of the $1^{-+}$ hybrid meson ${\bar q}qg$ in the light quark sector, and $4369 \pm 37 \pm 99$Mev in the charm quark sector; the mass splitting between the $1^{-+}$ hybrid meson ${\bar c}c g$ in the charm quark sector and the spin averaged S-wave charmonium mass is estimated to be $1302 \pm 37 \pm 99$ MeV. As a byproduct, we obtain $1438 \pm 32 \pm 57$ MeV for the mass of a P-wave $1^{++}$ ${\bar u}u$ or ${\bar d}d$ meson and $1499 \pm 28 \pm 65$ MeV for the mass of a P-wave $1^{++}$ ${\bar s}s$ meson, which are comparable to their experimental value 1426 MeV for the $f_1(1420)$ meson. The first error is statistical, and the second one is systematical. The mixing of the hybrid meson with a four quark state is also discussed.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures. Published versio

The Physical Connections Among IR QSOs, PG QSOs and Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 Galaxies

We study the properties of infrared-selected QSOs (IR QSOs), optically-selected QSOs (PG QSOs) and Narrow Line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLS1s). We compare their properties from the infrared to the optical and examine various correlations among the black hole mass, accretion rate, star formation rate and optical and infrared luminosities. We find that the infrared excess in IR QSOs is mostly in the far infrared, and their infrared spectral indices suggest that the excess emission is from low temperature dust heated by starbursts rather than AGNs. The infrared excess is therefore a useful criterion to separate the relative contributions of starbursts and AGNs. We further find a tight correlation between the star formation rate and the accretion rate of central AGNs for IR QSOs. The ratio of the star formation rate and the accretion rate is about several hundred for IR QSOs, but decreases with the central black hole mass. This shows that the tight correlation between the stellar mass and the central black hole mass is preserved in massive starbursts during violent mergers. We suggest that the higher Eddington ratios of NLS1s and IR QSOs imply that they are in the early stage of evolution toward classical Seyfert 1's and QSOs, respectively.Comment: 32 pages, 6 figures, accepted by Ap

Sparse Malicious False Data Injection Attacks and Defense Mechanisms in Smart Grids

This paper discusses malicious false data injection attacks on the wide area measurement and monitoring system in smart grids. Firstly, methods of constructing sparse stealth attacks are developed for two typical scenarios: random attacks in which arbitrary measurements can be compromised and targeted attacks in which specified state variables are modified. It is already demonstrated that stealth attacks can always exist if the number of compromised measurements exceeds a certain value. In this paper it is found that random undetectable attacks can be accomplished by modifying only a much smaller number of measurements than this value. It is well known that protecting the system from malicious attacks can be achieved by making a certain subset of measurements immune to attacks. An efficient greedy search algorithm is then proposed to quickly find this subset of measurements to be protected to defend against stealth attacks. It is shown that this greedy algorithm has almost the same performance as the brute-force method but without the combinatorial complexity. Thirdly, a robust attack detection method is discussed. The detection method is designed based on the robust principal component analysis problem by introducing element-wise constraints. This method is shown to be able to identify the real measurements as well as attacks even when only partial observations are collected. The simulations are conducted based on IEEE test systems

CMBR Constraint on a Modified Chaplygin Gas Model

In this paper, a modified Chaplygin gas model of unifying dark energy and dark matter with exotic equation of state $p=B\rho-\frac{A}{\rho^{\alpha}}$ which can also explain the recent accelerated expansion of the universe is investigated by the means of constraining the location of the peak of the CMBR spectrum. We find that the result of CMBR measurements does not exclude the nonzero value of parameter $B$, but allows it in the range $-0.35\lesssim B\lesssim0.025$.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure