Landslide susceptibility assessment considering landslide typology. A case study in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

International audienceThe aim of the study is to confirm the importance of discriminate different types of slope movements for a better landslide susceptibility evaluation. The study was applied to the sample area of Calhandriz (11.3 km2) in the area North of Lisbon. Sixty shallow translational slides, 23 deeper translational movements and 19 rotational movements were selected for statistical analysis. Landslide susceptibility assessment was achieved using a data-driven approach: the Information Value Method (Yin and Yan, 1988). The method was applied both to the total set of considered landslides and to each type of slope movement, and the obtained success rates for the highest susceptibility classes are higher in the latter case. The different types of landslides are not equally conditioned by the considered instability factors. Information scores are higher for lithology, concordance between slope aspect and dip of the strata, and slope angle, respectively, for rotational movements, translational movements and shallow translational slides. The information value of the variables "presence of artificial cut (roads)" and "presence of fluvial channel" is systematically high for the three types of slope movement, pointing out the importance of both anthropogenic influence and bank erosion on slope instability in the study area. Different types of landslides have neither the same magnitude nor equal damaging potential. Furthermore, technical strategies to mitigate landsliding also depend on landslide typology. These are additional reasons to discriminate between different types of slope movements when assessing landslide susceptibility and hazard

Assessment and validation of wildfire susceptibility and hazard in Portugal

A comprehensive methodology to assess forest fire susceptibility, that uses variables of strong spatial correlation, is presented and applied for the Portuguese mainland. Our study is based on a thirty-year chronological series of burnt areas. The first twenty years (1975–1994) are used for statistical modelling, and the last ten (1995–2004) are used for the independent validation of results. The wildfire affected areas are crossed with a set of independent layers that are assumed to be relevant wildfire conditioning factors: elevation, slope, land cover, rainfall and temperature. Moreover, the wildfire recurring pattern is also considered, as a proxy variable expressing the influence of human action in wildfire occurrence. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the weight of each individual theme within the susceptibility model. Validation of the wildfire susceptibility models is made through the computation of success rate and prediction rate curves. The results show that it is possible to have a good compromise between the number of variables within the model and the model predictive power. Additionally, it is shown that integration of climatic variables does not produce any relevant increase in the prediction capacity of wildfire susceptibility models. Finally, the prediction rate curves produced by the independent cross validation are used to assess the probabilistic wildfire hazard at a scenario basis, for the complete mainland Portuguese territory

Technical Note: Assessing predictive capacity and conditional independence of landslide predisposing factors for shallow landslide susceptibility models

The aim of this study is to identify the landslide predisposing factors' combination using a bivariate statistical model that best predicts landslide susceptibility. The best model is one that has simultaneously good performance in terms of suitability and predictive power and has been developed using variables that are conditionally independent. The study area is the Santa Marta de Penaguião council (70 km<sup>2</sup>) located in the Northern Portugal. <br><br> In order to identify the best combination of landslide predisposing factors, all possible combinations using up to seven predisposing factors were performed, which resulted in 120 predictions that were assessed with a landside inventory containing 767 shallow translational slides. The best landslide susceptibility model was selected according to the model degree of fitness and on the basis of a conditional independence criterion. The best model was developed with only three landslide predisposing factors (slope angle, inverse wetness index, and land use) and was compared with a model developed using all seven landslide predisposing factors. <br><br> Results showed that it is possible to produce a reliable landslide susceptibility model using fewer landslide predisposing factors, which contributes towards higher conditional independence

Rainfall-triggered landslides in the Lisbon region over 2006 and relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation

International audienceLandslides occurred in the Lisbon area during the last 50 years were almost always induced by rainfall and have been used to establish rainfall thresholds for regional landslide activity. In 2006, three new rainfall-triggered landslide events occurred in the study area, namely on the 20 March, the 25?27 October, and the 28 November. Landslide events occurred in March and October 2006 include shallow translational slides and few debris flows, and the corresponding absolute antecedent rainfall was found to be above the threshold for durations ranging from 4 to 10 days. These events also fit the combined threshold of daily precipitation and 5 days calibrated antecedent rainfall values. Likewise the landslide event that took place in late November 2006 includes some slope movements with deeper slip surfaces, when compared with landslides dating from March and October. Moreover, the corresponding absolute antecedent rainfall was also found to be above the 40-day period rainfall threshold. Here we characterize in detail the short and long-term atmospheric circulation conditions that were responsible for the intense rainfall episodes that have triggered the corresponding landslide events. It is shown that the three rainfall episodes correspond to considerably different synoptic atmospheric patterns, with the March episode being associated to an intense cut-off low system while the October and November episodes appear to be related to more typical Atlantic low pressure systems (and associated fronts) travelling eastwards. Finally, we analyse the role played by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during those months marked by landslide activity. It is shown that the NAO index was consistently negative (usually associated with above average precipitation) for the months prior to the landslide events, i.e. between October 2005 and March 2006, and again between August and October 2006

Integration of spatial and temporal data for the definition of different landslide hazard scenarios in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)

A general methodology for the probabilistic evaluation of landslide hazard is applied, taking in account both the landslide susceptibility and the instability triggering factors, mainly rainfall. The method is applied in the Fanh&#245;es-Tranc&#227;o test site (north of Lisbon, Portugal) where 100&nbsp;shallow translational slides were mapped and integrated into a GIS database. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> For the landslide susceptibility assessment it is assumed that future landslides can be predicted by statistical relationships between past landslides and the spatial data set of the predisposing factors (slope angle, slope aspect, transversal slope profile, lithology, superficial deposits, geomorphology, and land use). Susceptibility is evaluated using algorithms based on statistical/probabilistic analysis (Bayesian model) over unique-condition terrain units in a raster basis. The landslide susceptibility map is prepared by sorting all pixels according to the pixel susceptibility value in descending order. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> In order to validate the results of the susceptibility ana- lysis, the landslide data set is divided in two parts, using a temporal criterion. The first subset is used for obtaining a prediction image and the second subset is compared with the prediction results for validation. The obtained prediction-rate curve is used for the quantitative interpretation of the initial susceptibility map. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> Landslides in the study area are triggered by rainfall. The integration of triggering information in hazard assessment includes (i) the definition of thresholds of rainfall (quantity-duration) responsible for past landslide events; (ii) the calculation of the relevant return periods; (iii) the assumption that the same rainfall patterns (quantity/duration) which produced slope instability in the past will produce the same effects in the future (i.e. same types of landslides and same total affected area). <P style='line-height: 20px;'> The landslide hazard is present as the probability of each pixel to be affected by a slope movement, and results from the coupling between the susceptibility map, the prediction-rate curve, and the return periods of critical rainfall events, on a scenario basis. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> Using this methodology, different hazard scenarios were assessed, corresponding to different rain paths with different return periods

Formes et dépots glaciaires et périglaciaires de la Serra do Geres-Xurés (Portugal; Galiza) Levé cartographique

[Resumo] Apresentam-se os primeiros resultados de um levantamento cartográfico do pormenor das formas e depósitos glaciários e periglaciários da Serra do Geres-Xurés, levado a efeito por urna equipa de investigadores portugueses e espanhois. Os levantamentos de campo foram realizados nas escalas de 1:5.000 ou 1: 10.000 e tiveram urna importante componente sedimentológica, nomeadamente pelo estudo dos tzlls subglaciários, que se revelaram da maior importancia para o diagnóstico preciso de formas de erosao e de acumula~ao quase sempre pouco nítidas. Esse levantamento nao está ainda completo, mas é possível, desde já, deduzir várias conclus5es acerca da glacia~aoe da morfogénese periglaciária, que sao indicadas no final do texto principal[Résumé] Nous présentons les premiers résultats du levé cartographique détaillé mené par une équipe de chercheurs portugais et espagnols. Les levés de terrain ont été réalisés aux échelles du 1:5.000 ou du 1.10.000. Une attention particuliere a été accordée al'étude des tzlls sous-glaciaires, indispensables au diagnostic rigoureux de formes souvent trop peu claires. Ce levé pas encore terminé, mais il semble possible, des maintenat, de dégager quelques conclusions: 1) Présence, indiscutable, de manifestations glaciaires, tant du coté du Minho que du coté galicien. Cela confume, donc, idées de Schmidt-Thomé et de Coudé-Gaussen. 2) Les formes d' érosion et d' accumulation conservées révelent une glaciation essentiellement de cirque et de vallée. Dans une hypothése de glaciation restreinte, l'épaisseur maximale des langues glaciaires serait de l'ordre de 150 m. Mais ces manifestations représentent, tres probablement, un épisode de retrait des glaciers. L'étude des tills sous-glaciaires suggere, en effet, une glaciation plus ample, avec formation probable d'une calotte de plateau. 3) La répartition spatiale des manifestations glaciaires canographiées montre deux types de contraintes: a) structural, qui commande les directions de grandes vallées englacées; b) climatique, révélant une dyssimétrie NW-SE, avec accumulation préférentielle des neiges du coté oriental (probablement due aun effet d'abri vis-a-vis des vents dominants). 4) Absence d'une morphologie glaciaire typique, ce qui signifie que l'action des glaciers a été peu efficace; elle s'est limitée, pratiquement, a la destruetion et au transport des manteaux d'altérites pré-glaciaires. 5) Monotonie des manÍfestations periglaciaires; il s'agit, surtout, de versant réglés, avec tabliers d'éboulis, et de quelques coulées de solif1uxi6n. Mais c'est ala dynamique cryonivale que revient l'essentiel de l'a1lure des grands versants de la montagne. 6) Absence de pergélisol. Les éboulis et les blocs des grands versants ne sont pas dus ala macrogélifraction. Les actions cryonivales se sont certainement limitées au déchaussemet des blocs, déja préfigurés dans la roche par la fracturation tectonique et par la météoris~tion pré-glaciaire. 7) Absence d'une séparation nette entre l'étage périglaciaire et l'étage glaciaire, al'exception pres du versant galicien. Tout au plus peut-on parler d'un étage forestier (<<étage des arenes», COUDE-GAUSSEN, 1979, 1981), OU les actions cryonivales seraient tres limitees, et d'un étage «glacionival» (ETIICHER, 1988), pres de la limite des neiges persistante

Landslide susceptibility mapping at VAZ watershed (Iran) using an artificial neural network model: a comparison between multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) algorithms

Landslide susceptibility and hazard assessments are the most important steps in landslide risk mapping. The main objective of this study was to investigate and compare the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, i.e., multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in Vaz Watershed, Iran. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys, and a total of 136 landside locations were constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly split into a training dataset 70 % (95 landslide locations) for training the ANN model and the remaining 30 % (41 landslides locations) was used for validation purpose. Nine landslide conditioning factors such as slope, slope aspect, altitude, land use, lithology, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, and rainfall were constructed in geographical information system. In this study, both MLP and RBF algorithms were used in artificial neural network model. The results showed that MLP with Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno learning algorithm is more efficient than RBF in landslide susceptibility mapping for the study area. Finally the landslide susceptibility maps were validated using the validation data (i.e., 30 % landslide location data that was not used during the model construction) using area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for RBF and MLP was 0.9085 (90.85 %) and 0.9193 (91.93 %) accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the area under the curve for MLP and RBF models were 0.881 (88.1 %) and 0.8724 (87.24 %), respectively. The results of this study showed that landslide susceptibility mapping in the Vaz Watershed of Iran using the ANN approach is viable and can be used for land use planning

Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk

This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts

Shallow and deep landslides induced by rainfall in the Lisbon region (Portugal): assessment of relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation

International audienceThe aim of this study is to assess the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on both the winter precipitation and the temporal occurrence of different landslide types in Portugal. The analysis is applied to five sample areas located just north of Lisbon, the capital of Portugal. These sites are particularly relevant because actual dates of most of the recent landslide events are known but also because the landslides occurred in a suburban area with growing urbanization pressure. Results show that the large inter-annual variability of winter precipitation observed in western Iberia, i.e. Portugal and parts of Spain, is largely modulated by the NAO mode. In particular, precipitation falling in Portugal between November and March presents a correlation coefficient of R=?0.66 with the NAO index. Precipitation distribution for the reference rain gauge in the study area reveals that the probability of a wet month to occur is much higher for low NAO index composites than for the corresponding high NAO index composite. It is shown that this control, exerted by NAO on the precipitation regime, is related to corresponding changes in the associated activity of North-Atlantic storm tracks that affect the western Iberia. Landslide activity in the study area is related to both intense, short duration precipitation events (1?15 days) and long-lasting rainfall episodes (1?3 months). The former events trigger shallow translational slides while the later episodes are usually associated with deeper and larger slope movements. This second group of landslides is shown to be statistically associated with the 3-month average of the NAO index