Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, the growth of and irrigation water demand on cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL (Lund Potsdam Jena managed land). We find our modeled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) protocol, we employ an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2011 2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from _ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production rises by more than 50% by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-Third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000m3 t1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000m3 t1, and reduction continues by up to 30% in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature acts in the opposite direction. Ignoring beneficial CO2 effects, global VWC of cotton would increase for all RCPs except RCP2.6, reaching more than 5000m3 t1 by the end of the simulation period under RCP8.5. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. Our results should be regarded as optimistic, because of high uncertainty with respect to CO2 fertilization and the lack of implementing processes of boll abscission under heat stress. Still, the inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved

First process-based simulations of climate change impacts on global tea production indicate large effects in the World’s major producer countries

Modeling of climate change impacts have mainly been focused on a small number of annual staple crops that provide most of the world's calories. Crop models typically do not represent perennial crops despite their high economic, nutritional, or cultural value. Here we assess climate change impacts on global tea production, chosen because of its high importance in culture and livelihoods of people around the world. We extended the dynamic global vegetation model with managed land, LPJmL4, global crop model to simulate the cultivation of tea plants. Simulated tea yields were validated and found in good agreement with historical observations as well as experiments on the effects of increasing CO2 concentrations. We then projected yields into the future under a range of climate scenarios from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Under current irrigation levels and lowest climate change scenarios, tea yields are expected to decrease in major producing countries. In most climate scenarios, we project that tea yields are set to increase in China, India, and Vietnam. However, yield losses are expected to affect Kenya, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. If abundant water supply and full irrigation is assumed for all tea cultivation areas, yields are projected to increase in all regions

Biomass production in plantations: Land constraints increase dependency on irrigation water

Integrated assessment model scenarios project rising deployment of biomass‐using energy systems in climate change mitigation scenarios. But there is concern that bioenergy deployment will increase competition for land and water resources and obstruct objectives such as nature protection, the preservation of carbon‐rich ecosystems, and food security. To study the relative importance of water and land availability as biophysical constraints to bioenergy deployment at a global scale, we use a process‐detailed, spatially explicit biosphere model to simulate rain‐fed and irrigated biomass plantation supply along with the corresponding water consumption for different scenarios concerning availability of land and water resources. We find that global plantation supplies are mainly limited by land availability and only secondarily by freshwater availability. As a theoretical upper limit, if all suitable lands on Earth, besides land currently used in agriculture, were available for bioenergy plantations (“Food first” scenario), total plantation supply would be in the range 2,010–2,300 EJ/year depending on water availability and use. Excluding all currently protected areas reduces the supply by 60%. Excluding also areas where conversion to biomass plantations causes carbon emis- sions that might be considered unacceptably high will reduce the total plantation supply further. For example, excluding all areas where soil and vegetation carbon stocks exceed 150 tC/ha (“Carbon threshold savanna” scenario) reduces the supply to 170–290 EJ/year. With decreasing land availability, the amount of water available for irrigation becomes vitally important. In the least restrictive land availability scenario (“Food first”), up to 77% of global plantation biomass supply is obtained without additional irrigation. This share is reduced to 31% for the most restrictive “Carbon threshold savanna” scenario. The results highlight the critical —and geographically varying—importance of co‐managing land and water resources if substantial contributions of bioenergy are to be reached in mitigation portfolios

Boron Contents of German Mineral and Medicinal Waters and Their Bioavailability in Drosophila melanogaster and Humans

Scope Boron is a trace element that naturally occurs in soil, making mineral and medicinal water important contributors to overall intake. Thus, in a systematic screening, the mean boron concentrations of 381 German mineral and medicinal waters are determined. Methods and results Boron concentrations in mineral and medicinal waters are analyzed by inductively coupled mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Highest boron values find in waters from the southwest of Germany. The boron content of the waters is positively correlated with the concentration of most other analyzed bulk elements, including calcium, potassium, magnesium, and sodium. Mineral waters with either low (7.9 µg L-1 ), medium (113.9 µg L-1 ), or high (2193.3 µg L-1 ) boron content are chosen for boron exposure experiments in fruit flies (Drosophila melanogaster) and humans. In flies, boron-rich mineral water significantly increases boron accumulation, with the accumulation predominantly occurring in the exoskeleton. In humans, serum boron and 24-h urinary boron excretion significantly increase only in response to the intake of boron-rich mineral water. Conclusion Overall, the current data demonstrate that mineral and medicinal waters vary substantially in the content of boron and that boron-rich mineral water can be used to elevate the boron status, both in flies and humans

Powerful Skin Cancer Protection by a CPD-Photolyase Transgene

AbstractBackground: The high and steadily increasing incidence of ultraviolet-B (UV-B)-induced skin cancer is a problem recognized worldwide. UV introduces different types of damage into the DNA, notably cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs) and (6-4) photoproducts (6-4PPs). If unrepaired, these photolesions can give rise to cell death, mutation induction, and onset of carcinogenic events, but the relative contribution of CPDs and 6-4PPs to these biological consequences of UV exposure is hardly known. Because placental mammals have undergone an evolutionary loss of photolyases, repair enzymes that directly split CPDs and 6-4PPs into the respective monomers in a light-dependent and lesion-specific manner, they can only repair UV-induced DNA damage by the elaborate nucleotide excision repair pathway.Results: To assess the relative contribution of CPDs and 6-4PPs to the detrimental effects of UV light, we generated transgenic mice that ubiquitously express CPD-photolyase, 6-4PP-photolyase, or both, thereby allowing rapid light-dependent repair of CPDs and/or 6-4PPs in the skin. We show that the vast majority of (semi)acute responses in the UV-exposed skin (i.e., sunburn, apoptosis, hyperplasia, and mutation induction) can be ascribed to CPDs. Moreover, CPD-photolyase mice, in contrast to 6-4PP-photolyase mice, exhibit superior resistance to sunlight-induced tumorigenesis.Conclusions: Our data unequivocally identify CPDs as the principal cause of nonmelanoma skin cancer and provide genetic evidence that CPD-photolyase enzymes can be employed as effective tools to combat skin cancer

Student midwives' perceptions on the organisation of maternity care and alternative maternity care models in the Netherlands - a qualitative study

BACKGROUND: A major change in the organisation of maternity care in the Netherlands is under consideration, going from an echelon system where midwives provide primary care in the community and refer to obstetricians for secondary and tertiary care, to a more integrated maternity care system involving midwives and obstetricians at all care levels. Student midwives are the future maternity care providers and they may be entering into a changing maternity care system, so inclusion of their views in the discussion is relevant. This study aimed to explore student midwives' perceptions on the current organisation of maternity care and alternative maternity care models, including integrated care. METHODS: This qualitative study was based on the interpretivist/constructivist paradigm, using a grounded theory design. Interviews and focus groups with 18 female final year student midwives of the Midwifery Academy Amsterdam Groningen (AVAG) were held on the basis of a topic list, then later transcribed, coded and analysed. RESULTS: Students felt that inevitably there will be a change in the organisation of maternity care, and they were open to change. Participants indicated that good collaboration between professions, including a shared system of maternity notes and guidelines, and mutual trust and respect were important aspects of any alternative model. The students indicated that client-centered care and the safeguarding of the physiological, normalcy approach to pregnancy and birth should be maintained in any alternative model. Students expressed worries that the role of midwives in intrapartum care could become redundant, and thus they are motivated to take on new roles and competencies, so they can ensure their own role in intrapartum care. CONCLUSIONS: Final year student midwives recognise that change in the organisation of maternity care is inevitable and have an open attitude towards changes if they include good collaboration, client-centred care and safeguards for normal physiological birth. The graduating midwives are motivated to undertake an expanded intrapartum skill set. It can be important to involve students' views in the discussion, because they are the future maternity care providers. (aut. ref.

BIO FOr CARE: biomarkers of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy development and progression in carriers of Dutch founder truncating MYBPC3 variants—design and status

Background: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is the most prevalent monogenic heart disease, commonly caused by truncating variants in the MYBPC3 gene. HCM is an important cause of sudden cardiac death; however, overall prognosis is good and penetrance in genotype-positive individuals is incomplete. The underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and risk stratification remains limited. Aim: To create a nationwide cohort of carriers of truncating MYBPC3 variants for identification of predictive biomarkers for HCM development and progression. Methods: In the multicentre, observational BIO FOr CARe (Identification of BIOmarkers of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy development and progression in Dutch MYBPC3 FOunder variant CARriers) cohort, carriers of the c.2373dupG, c.2827C > T, c.2864_2865delCT and c.3776delA MYBPC3 variants are included and prospectively undergo longitudinal blood collection. Clinical data are collected from first presentation onwards. The primary outcome constitutes a composite endpoint of HCM progression (maximum wall thickness ≥ 20 mm, septal reduction therapy, heart failure occurrence, sustained ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death). Results: So far, 250 subjects (median age 54.9 years (interquartile range 43.3, 66.6), 54.8% male) have been included. HCM was diagnosed in 169 subjects and dilated cardiomyopathy in 4. The primary outcome was met in 115 subjects. Blood samples were collected from 131 subjects. Conclusion: BIO FOr CARe is a genetically homogeneous, phenotypically heterogeneous cohort incorporating a clinical data registry and longitudinal blood collection. This provides a unique opportunity to study biomarkers for HCM development and prognosis. The established infrastructure can be extended to study other genetic variants. Other centres are invited to join our consortium

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat