Causal Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the Number of COVID-19 Cases under COVID-19 Pandemic: An Ecological Study Using the Synthetic Control Method

Previous studies have not assessed the causal effect of the Olympic Games on the spread of pandemics. Using the synthetic control method and the national public city data in Japan recorded from February to September 2021, we estimated the causal effects of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. The difference between the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo and a counterfactual "synthetic Tokyo" (created using synthetic control method) after the opening of the Tokyo 2020 Games (23 July 2021) widened gradually and then considerably over time. It was predicted that the Tokyo 2020 Games increased the number of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo by approximately 469.4 per 100,000 population from the opening of the event to 30 September. However, sensitivity analysis of the ratio of the pre- and post-game root mean square prediction errors using regression weights did not suggest robustness. Our results showed that the Tokyo 2020 Games probably increased the number of COVID-19 cases even under preventive regulations; however, the extent of this increase was difficult to estimate clearly due to an overlap with the fifth wave associated with the Delta variant

Environmental Factors and Seasonal Influenza Onset in Okayama City, Japan: Case-Crossover Study

Seasonal influenza infection is a major challenge in public health. The term "seasonal influenza" refers to the typical increase in the number of influenza patients in the winter season in temperature zones. However, it is not clear how environmental factors within a single flu season affect influenza infection in a human population. Therefore, we evaluated the effects of temperature and humidity in the 2006-7 flu season on the onset of seasonal influenza using a case-crossover study. We targeted patients who attended one pediatric clinic in Okayama city, Japan and who were diagnosed as being infected with the seasonal influenza virus. Using 2 references (time-stratified and symmetric bidirectional design), we estimated the effects of average temperature and relative humidity from the onset day (lag0) to 10 days before (lag10). The total number of subjects was 419, and their onset days ranged from 26 December 2006 to 30 April 2007. While the onset was significantly associated with lower temperature, relative humidity was not related. In particular, temperatures before the 3-day incubation period had higher-magnitude odds ratios. For example, the odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for average temperature at time lag 8 was 1.12 (1.08-1.17) per 1.0℃ decrease. Low environmental temperature significantly increased the risk of seasonal influenza onset within the 2006-7 winter season

Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. METHODS: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. RESULTS: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted

Trends in CD4+ Cell Counts, Viral Load, Treatment, Testing History, and Sociodemographic Characteristics of Newly Diagnosed HIV Patients in Osaka, Japan, From 2003 through 2017: A Descriptive Study

Background: The CD4 cell count of patients during diagnosis and distribution of CD4 cell counts in the patient population are important to understand infection-diagnosis interval and incidence rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, respectively. However, this information has not been published in Japan. This study aimed to describe the change in CD4 cell count trends and clarify the change in patients’ characteristics in association with the CD4 cell count information. Methods: A descriptive study was conducted to analyze the medical records of patients with HIV who visited one of the largest acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) core hospitals in western Japan. The basic characteristics, CD4 cell counts, viral loads, and diagnosis-treatment intervals between the first (2003–2010) and second (2011–2017) halves of the study duration were compared. Results: The distribution of CD4 cell counts significantly changed between 2003–2010 and 2011–2017 (χ2 = 20.42, P < 0.001). The proportion of CD4 cell count <200 cells/mm3 increased (38.8% in 2003 to 45.9% in 2017), whereas CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/mm3 decreased (19.4% in 2003 to 12.2% in 2017). Moreover, the distributions of age groups, history of HIV screening test, patient outcomes, HIV viral load, and diagnosis-treatment interval also significantly changed (χ2 = 25.55, P < 0.001; χ2 = 8.37, P = 0.015; χ2 = 6.07, P = 0.014; χ2 = 13.36, P = 0.020; χ2 = 173.76, P < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: This study demonstrated the fundamental trends of the HIV epidemic in Osaka, Japan between 2003–2010 and 2011–2017 and indicated that the incidence rate of HIV was decreasing in Japan