The peril of parliamentarism? : executive–legislative relations and the transition to democracy from electoral authoritarian rule

Why do some electoral authoritarian regimes survive for decades while others become democracies? This article explores the impact of constitutional structures on democratic transitions from electoral authoritarianism. We argue that under electoral authoritarian regimes, parliamentary systems permit dictators to survive longer than they do in presidential systems. This is because parliamentary systems incentivize autocrats and ruling elites to engage in power sharing and thus institutionalize party organizations, and indirectly allow electoral manipulation to achieve an overwhelming victory at the ballot box, through practices such as gerrymandering and malapportionment. We test our hypothesis using a combination of cross-national statistical analysis and comparative case studies of Malaysia and the Philippines. Employing a cross-national dataset of 170 countries between 1946 and 2008, dynamic probit models provide supporting evidence that electoral authoritarianism within parliamentary systems is less likely to lead a country to democracy than within presidential systems. The results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, including instrumental variable estimation and additional controls. Two carefully selected case studies have been chosen for comparative analysis—Malaysia’s Barisan National (National Front) regime (1957 to present) and the Philippines's electoral authoritarian regime (1978 to 1986)—which elucidate causal mechanisms in the theory

Basic assessment on adding platelet measurement to legal health checkup in Japan: A cross-sectional and 20-year longitudinal study

BackgroundIn Japan, health checkups for workers are legally compulsory. Considering legal health checkup items are important for Japanese workers' health problems. To date, the legal health checkup items for blood cell counts include only red blood cell counts and hemoglobin but not platelet counts. This study aimed to investigate the significance of measuring platelets in workers by showing the association between the FIB-4 index (FIB-4), which can be easily calculated from factors including platelet counts and viral hepatitis infection.MethodBoth cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses were conducted on the comprehensive medical examinations of male workers. In fiscal year (FY) 2019, a logistic regression model was applied to 12,918 examinees. For 13,459 examinees (mean age = 47.5 ± 9.3 SD), FY2000 was set to be followed until FY2019. A total of 149,956 records between FY2000 and FY2019 were analyzed cross-sectionally, and 8,038 men who were consecutively examined to FY2019 at the longest were analyzed longitudinally. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve–area under the ROC curve (ROC–AUC) and Cox proportional methods were used to examine the association between platelet-related indices and viral hepatitis infection.ResultsLogistic regression showed that the risk of FIB-4 ≥ 2.67 was mostly associated with hepatitis C virus antibody (HCVAb) positivity [odds ratio (OR) = 2.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08–5.86], while negatively associated with body mass index (BMI) (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.30–0.97), and not associated with the presence of fatty liver. To detect HVC Ab positivity, ROC–AUC showed more effectiveness in FIB-4 than in the AST/ALT ratio (0.776, 95% CI = 0.747–0.773 vs. 0.552; 95% CI = 0.543–0.561). The Cox analysis showed that the risk of FIB-4 ≥ 2.67 was closely associated with hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.1, 95% CI = 2.0–4.6] and HCV Ab positivity (HR = 3.2, 95% CI = 2.0–5.0).ConclusionOur results suggest that it might be worth considering that usage of information on platelets in legal health checkups could be some help not to overlook workers with hepatitis virus carriers as a complementary countermeasure, although further investigations are needed into its practical application

The 2019 midterm elections in the Philippines: Party system pathologies and Duterte’s populist mobilization

The May 13, 2019 midterm elections were generally seen as a referendum on the first three years of the presidency of Rodrigo R Duterte. The elections tested and consolidated the political strength of Duterte as the country’s populist strongman president. Most of the national and local candidates he endorsed won their contests for the 18,066 national and local positions. The election also resulted in a victory for the administration’s nine senatorial candidates (out of 12 seats) and a majority of its governors, mayors, and local legislators. The results follow the historical patterns of midterm elections in the post-authoritarian period. But unlike previous Philippine presidents, Duterte did not personally endeavor to consolidate his political support under his dominant party solely through the systematic mobilization of patronage. Duterte eschewed patronage-based political party building in favor of populist mobilization or the rallying of mass supporters toward contentious political action with minimum institutional intermediation. With a record high trust rating, Duterte was not only an active endorser of candidates, but he was also both a staunch defender of his allies and a relentless attacker of the opposition. In the end, the biggest winners in the 2019 midterm elections were not the candidates but Duterte himself. © The Author(s) 2019