Estimating Negative Likelihood Ratio Confidence When Test Sensitivity is 100%: A Bootstrapping Approach

Objectives: Assessing high-sensitivity tests for mortal illness is crucial in emergency and critical care medicine. Estimating the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the likelihood ratio (LR) can be challenging when sample sensitivity is 100%. We aimed to develop, compare, and automate a bootstrapping method to estimate the negative LR CI when sample sensitivity is 100%. Methods: The lowest population sensitivity that is most likely to yield sample sensitivity 100% is located using the binomial distribution. Random binomial samples generated using this population sensitivity are then used in the LR bootstrap. A free R program, “bootLR,” automates the process. Extensive simulations were performed to determine how often the LR bootstrap and comparator method 95% CIs cover the true population negative LR value. Finally, the 95% CI was compared for theoretical sample sizes and sensitivities approaching and including 100% using: (1) a technique of individual extremes, (2) SAS software based on the technique of Gart and Nam, (3) the Score CI (as implemented in the StatXact, SAS, and R PropCI package), and (4) the bootstrapping technique. Results: The bootstrapping approach demonstrates appropriate coverage of the nominal 95% CI over a spectrum of populations and sample sizes. Considering a study of sample size 200 with 100 patients with disease, and specificity 60%, the lowest population sensitivity with median sample sensitivity 100% is 99.31%. When all 100 patients with disease test positive, the negative LR 95% CIs are: individual extremes technique (0,0.073), StatXact (0,0.064), SAS Score method (0,0.057), R PropCI (0,0.062), and bootstrap (0,0.048). Similar trends were observed for other sample sizes. Conclusions: When study samples demonstrate 100% sensitivity, available methods may yield inappropriately wide negative LR CIs. An alternative bootstrapping approach and accompanying free open-source R package were developed to yield realistic estimates easily. This methodology and implementation are applicable to other binomial proportions with homogeneous responses

Decision Quality Instrument for Treatment of Hip and Knee Osteoarthritis: A Psychometric Evaluation

A high quality decision requires that patients who meet clinical criteria for surgery are informed about the options (including non-surgical alternatives) and receive treatments that match their goals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties and clinical sensibility of a patient self report instrument, to measure the quality of decisions about total joint replacement for knee or hip osteoarthritis

Food assistance is associated with improved body mass index, food security and attendance at clinic in an HIV program in central Haiti: a prospective observational cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few data are available to guide programmatic solutions to the overlapping problems of undernutrition and HIV infection. We evaluated the impact of food assistance on patient outcomes in a comprehensive HIV program in central Haiti in a prospective observational cohort study.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Adults with HIV infection were eligible for monthly food rations if they had any one of: tuberculosis, body mass index (BMI) <18.5kg/m², CD4 cell count <350/mm³(in the prior 3 months) or severe socio-economic conditions. A total of 600 individuals (300 eligible and 300 ineligible for food assistance) were interviewed before rations were distributed, at 6 months and at 12 months. Data collected included demographics, BMI and food insecurity score (range 0 - 20).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At 6- and 12-month time-points, 488 and 340 subjects were eligible for analysis. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that at 6 months, food security significantly improved in those who received food assistance versus who did not (-3.55 vs -0.16; P < 0.0001); BMI decreased significantly less in the food assistance group than in the non-food group (-0.20 vs -0.66; P = 0.020). At 12 months, food assistance was associated with improved food security (-3.49 vs -1.89, P = 0.011) and BMI (0.22 vs -0.67, P = 0.036). Food assistance was associated with improved adherence to monthly clinic visits at both 6 (P < 0.001) and 12 months (P = 0.033).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Food assistance was associated with improved food security, increased BMI, and improved adherence to clinic visits at 6 and 12 months among people living with HIV in Haiti and should be part of routine care where HIV and food insecurity overlap.</p

Predicting post-trauma stress symptoms from pre-trauma psychophysiologic reactivity, personality traits and measures of psychopathology

Background: Most individuals exposed to a traumatic event do not develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), although many individuals may experience sub-clinical levels of post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS). There are notable individual differences in the presence and severity of PTSS among individuals who report seemingly comparable traumatic events. Individual differences in PTSS following exposure to traumatic events could be influenced by pre-trauma vulnerabilities for developing PTSS/PTSD. Methods Pre-trauma psychological, psychophysiological and personality variables were prospectively assessed for their predictive relationships with post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS). Police and firefighter trainees were tested at the start of their professional training (i.e., pre-trauma; n = 211) and again several months after exposure to a potentially traumatic event (i.e., post-trauma, n = 99). Pre-trauma assessments included diagnostic interviews, psychological and personality measures and two psychophysiological assessment procedures. The psychophysiological assessments measured psychophysiologic reactivity to loud tones and the acquisition and extinction of a conditioned fear response. Post-trauma assessment included a measure of psychophysiologic reactivity during recollection of the traumatic event using a script-driven imagery task. Results: Logistic stepwise regression identified the combination of lower IQ, higher depression score and poorer extinction of forehead (corrugator) electromyogram responses as pre-trauma predictors of higher PTSS. The combination of lower IQ and increased skin conductance (SC) reactivity to loud tones were identified as pre-trauma predictors of higher post-trauma psychophysiologic reactivity during recollection of the traumatic event. A univariate relationship was also observed between pre-trauma heart rate (HR) reactivity to fear cues during conditioning and post-trauma psychophysiologic reactivity. Conclusion: The current study contributes to a very limited literature reporting results from truly prospective examinations of pre-trauma physiologic, psychologic, and demographic predictors of PTSS. Findings that combinations of lower estimated IQ, greater depression symptoms, a larger differential corrugator EMG response during extinction and larger SC responses to loud tones significantly predicted higher PTSS suggests that the process(es) underlying these traits contribute to the pathogenesis of subjective and physiological PTSS. Due to the low levels of PTSS severity and relatively restricted ranges of outcome scores due to the healthy nature of the participants, results may underestimate actual predictive relationships

Limited English Proficient Patients and Time Spent in Therapeutic Range in a Warfarin Anticoagulation Clinic

Background: While anticoagulation clinics have been shown to deliver tailored, high‐quality care to patients receiving warfarin therapy, communication barriers with limited English proficient (LEP) patients may lead to disparities in anticoagulation outcomes. Methods and Results: We analyzed data on 3770 patients receiving care from the Massachusetts General Hospital Anticoagulation Management Service (AMS) from 2009 to 2010. This included data on international normalized ratio (INR) tests and patient characteristics, including language and whether AMS used a surrogate for primary communication. We calculated percent time in therapeutic range (TTR for INR between 2.0 and 3.0) and time in danger range (TDR for INR 3.5) using the standard Rosendaal interpolation method. There were 241 LEP patients; LEP patients, compared with non‐LEP patients, had a higher number of comorbidities (3.2 versus 2.9 comorbidities, P=0.004), were more frequently uninsured (17.0% versus 4.3%, P<0.001), and less educated (47.7% versus 6.0% ≤high school education, P<0.001). LEP patients compared with non‐LEP patients spent less TTR (71.6% versus 74.0%, P=0.007) and more TDR (12.9% versus 11.3%, P=0.018). In adjusted analyses, LEP patients had lower TTR as compared with non‐LEP patients (OR 1.5, 95% CI [1.1, 2.2]). LEP patients who used a communication surrogate spent less TTR and more TDR. Conclusion: Even within a large anticoagulation clinic with a high average TTR, a small but significant decrease in TTR was observed for LEP patients compared with English speakers. Future studies are warranted to explore how the use of professional interpreters impact TTR for LEP patients

Preoperative Predictors of Arthroscopic Partial Meniscectomy Outcomes: The APM Index Score

Problem Statement: - Arthroscopic partial meniscectomy (APM) has been shown to be the most common meniscal surgical treatment in the United States - Pre-op risk factors known to contribute to poor outcomes after APM: Symptom duration and radiographic OA at baseline - Factors with no conclusive effect on post-op outcomes: Baseline knee functional score, location of meniscal tear, BMI, activity level, age, sex, and chondral damage on MRI Project AIM: To create an index score using easily available preoperative risk factors such as Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade, age, duration of symptoms, BMI, activity level, and preoperative outcome scores to predict the likelihood of favorable outcomes after APM.https://jdc.jefferson.edu/aoa_research_symposium_posters/1003/thumbnail.jp

Are Patients Making High-Quality Decisions about Breast Reconstruction after Mastectomy? [Outcomes Article]

Variation in rates of breast reconstruction after mastectomy has raised concerns about the quality of decisions about reconstruction. We sought to evaluate patient decision making about reconstruction, using a validated measure of knowledge and preferences related to reconstruction

Stability of High‐Quality Warfarin Anticoagulation in a Community‐Based Atrial Fibrillation Cohort: The Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) Study

Background: Warfarin reduces ischemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) but increases bleeding risk. Novel anticoagulants challenge warfarin as stroke‐preventive therapy for AF. They are available at fixed doses but are more costly. Warfarin anticoagulation at a time in therapeutic range (TTR) ≥70% is similarly as effective and safe as novel anticoagulants. It is unclear whether AF patients with TTR ≥70% will remain stably anticoagulated and avoid the need to switch to a novel anticoagulant. We assessed stability of warfarin anticoagulation in AF patients with an initial TTR ≥70%. Methods and Results: Within the community‐based Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in AF (ATRIA) cohort followed from 1996 to 2003, we identified 2841 new warfarin users who continued warfarin over 9 months. We excluded months 1 to 3 to achieve a stable dose. For the 987 patients with TTR ≥70% in an initial 6‐month period (TTR 1; months 4–9), we described the distribution of TTR 2 (months 10–15) and assessed multivariable correlates of persistent TTR ≥70%. Of patients with TTR 1 ≥70%, 57% persisted with TTR 2 ≥70% and 16% deteriorated to TTR 2 <50%. Only initial TTR 1 ≥90% (adjusted odds ratio 1.47, 95% CI 1.07–2.01) independently predicted TTR 2 ≥70%. Heart failure was moderately associated with marked deterioration (TTR 2 <50%); adjusted odds ratio 1.45, 95% CI 1.00–2.10. Conclusions: Nearly 60% of AF patients with high‐quality TTR1 on warfarin maintained TTR ≥70% over the next 6 months. A minority deteriorated to very poor TTR. Patient features did not strongly predict TTR in the second 6‐month period. Our analyses support watchful waiting for AF patients with initial high‐quality warfarin anticoagulation before considering alternative anticoagulants