A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models

This note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography.Early warning systems, bibliometric analysis

A bibliometric review of the research papers of the Central Bank of Turkey

This paper presents a bibliometric assessment of the research papers produced in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from 1988 to 2009. Concentration over subjects and the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification codes are provided in addition to the time distribution of bibliography cited in the research papers. Overall, it is observed that the examined series did provide an adequate pool of knowledge for both academics and the general public.Bibliometrics; Central bank research; Economic research

Refinement of the random coding bound

An improved pre-factor for the random coding bound is proved. Specifically, for channels with critical rate not equal to capacity, if a regularity condition is satisfied (resp. not satisfied), then for any $\epsilon >0$ a pre-factor of $O(N^{-\frac{1}{2}\left( 1 - \epsilon + \bar{\rho}^\ast_R \right)})$ (resp. $O(N^{-\frac{1}{2}})$) is achievable for rates above the critical rate, where $N$ and $R$ is the blocklength and rate, respectively. The extra term $\bar{\rho}^\ast_R$ is related to the slope of the random coding exponent. Further, the relation of these bounds with the authors' recent refinement of the sphere-packing bound, as well as the pre-factor for the random coding bound below the critical rate, is discussed.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Trans. Inform. Theor

Does every stone fall in the same way? new gravity evidence on world trade

In this paper, we examine a series of questions about bilateral trade flows in the light of a rich and up-to-date panel data set. The analyses performed reveal that (1) globalization process has been functioning in a number of ways, (2) functioning of economic regions display alternative results based on model specification, (3) distance is an important factor in the functioning of economic regions, (4) trade relationships do strengthen when countries move toward stronger degrees of their regimes, regardless of democratic or autocratic, (5) the same polity direction implies a higher degree of trade between countries, (6) given the joint regime strength (common direction of regimes) of trade partners, common direction of regimes (higher joint regime strength) implies lower trade, (7) partners belonging to the same religion trade less, (8) partners with the same language trade more among themselves, (9) given that partners are of the same religion (language), same language (religion) implies lower trade.International trade; Gravity; Globalization; Economic regions; Institutions; Cultures

Click to Download Data : An Event Study of Internet Access to Economic Statistics

This study examines the online access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey's Electronic Data Delivery System within an event study framework. The comparisons of pre-event and post-event statistics suggest that announcements of both the policy interest rates and the consumer price data considerably affect society's data access behavior. The timing and amplitude of these effects are further studied with respect to inflation expectations and surprise content of events; yet no solid pattern was revealed.Data access, Macroeconomic data, Market efficiency, Event study