Probabilistic Analysis of the Economic Impact of Earthquake Prediction Systems

This research initiates from the question of whether or not earthquake prediction systems are actually worth investing in, as the cost of operating such systems is quite large compared to the number of lives which may be saved and, furthermore, false predictions may cause large-scale public panics and substantial economic losses. Some argue that it is more effective to invest in the research and development of infrastructure which can withstand earthquakes, rather than trying to predict earthquakes before they happen. Improving upon previous research on earthquake prediction systems, we use probabilistic methods to model the expected cost per life saved from a prediction system. The result is applied numerically to the San Francisco Bay area and the expected cost per life saved from the earthquake prediction system is found to be $2.5 million in the case of a magnitude 8+ earthquake. While the amount is quite high, it is substantially lower than the corresponding expected cost per life saved of$6.3 million from expenditures in earthquake engineering to improve building codes

“You Have Been God’s Grace to Me”: The Presence of Agape and Grace Outside Christianity in Marilynne Robinson’s Gilead

Many theologians traditionally claimed that only people who believe in God are able to love truly, for love comes as the result of receiving God\u27s grace. This implies that non-Christians fail to love truly due to their lack of faith. However, many contemporary theologians have found this account of non-Christians unsatisfying, as it seems to fall short of explaining the ethical force of non-Christian lives. Thus, a theological question arises as to whether or not God\u27s grace exists outside the church, enabling people to love authentically. Marilynne Robinson addresses this very question in Gilead. Robinson shows that an unbeliever Jack and his godfather and a church minister, John Ames, both experience love truly. Since agape comes to human beings as the result of receiving God\u27s grace, Robinson suggests that Jack has already obtained grace from God. She also indicates that the cause of Jack\u27s failure in his life is due to racism and social prejudice, not Jack\u27s lack of faith or the absence of God\u27s grace. Furthermore, Robinson\u27s Gilead suggests that this broad understanding of Christianity helps Christians maintain and develop their faith in God while building a diverse religious community founded on respect and mutual understanding

Sorting Permutations with Finite-Depth Stacks

Sorting organizes information for optimal usage, and our work examines the mathematics behind sorting with stacks. In 1968, Donald Knuth showed that a permutation is sortable in an infinite-depth stack if and only if it avoids the pattern 231; Knuth also enumerated these permutations. Twenty-five years later, Julian West extended these ideas to permutations sortable with 2 consecutive stacks. We continue this work by limiting the stack(s) to a finite depth. In particular, we completely characterize permutations sortable through a single finite-depth stack and derive a handy enumeration formula. We also apply our pattern characterization and enumeration techniques to permutations that are sortable after k-passes through a finite-depth stack

Variation in Contents of Iodine Species in Kelp during Blanching-Salting Process

In this study, the contents of four iodine forms, including iodide ion (I−), iodate (IO3−), mono-iodotyrosine (MIT) and diiodotyrosine (DIT), were determined in the blanching water, rinsing water, saline water and processed kelp to study the dissolution patterns of iodine forms during the blanching, rinsing and salting of kelp. The I− contents in fresh, blanched, primarily rinsed and secondarily rinsed kelp were 1 689.41–8 753.24 mg/kg, and the contents of IO3− ranged from 42.67 to 442.00 mg/kg. The contents of MIT and DIT ranged from 698.22 to 861.90 mg/kg and 123.97 to 158.67 mg/kg, respectively. During the blanching process, the dissolution rates of I−, MIT and DIT were the highest, which were (64.38 ± 2.99)%, (19.35 ± 0.97)% and (6.55 ± 0.53)%, respectively. With increasing kelp addition, the contents of I−, MIT and DIT in the blanching, rinsing and saline water first increased and then leveled off, and the content of IO3− in all waters showed a monotonously increasing trend. With increasing number of kelp rinsed, the dissolution rate of I− decreased first and then basically remained unchanged. Compared with fresh kelp, the dissolution rate of I− in the first rinsed kelp decreased by (80.72 ± 2.66)%, and iodine was released into water mainly in the form of I−, with the maximum release being recorded during the blanching process

The reporting quality of randomized controlled trials in Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) formulas for diabetes based on the consort statement and its extension for CHM formulas

Background: This study aimed to assess the overall reporting quality of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) formulas for patients with diabetes, and to identify factors associated with better reporting quality.Methods: Four databases including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of Science were systematically searched from their inception to December 2022. The reporting quality was assessed based on the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement and its CHM formula extension. The overall CONSORT and its CHM formula extension scores were calculated and expressed as proportions separately. We also analyzed the pre-specified study characteristics and performed exploratory regressions to determine their associations with the reporting quality.Results: Seventy-two RCTs were included. Overall reporting quality (mean adherence) were 53.56% and 45.71% on the CONSORT statement and its CHM formula extension, respectively. The strongest associations with reporting quality based on the CONSORT statement were multiple centers and larger author numbers. Compliance with the CHM formula extension, particularly regarding the disclosure of the targeted traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) pattern (s), was generally insufficient.Conclusion: The reporting quality of RCTs in CHM formulas for diabetes remains unsatisfactory, and the adherence to the CHM formula extension is even poorer. In order to ensure transparent and standardized reporting of RCTs, it is essential to advocate for or even mandate adherence of the CONSORT statement and its CHM formula extension when reporting trials in CHM formulas for diabetes by both authors and editors

Probabilistic Analysis of the Economic Impact of Earthquake Prediction Systems

In order to study the economic impact of an earthquake prediction system, we use probabilistic methods to model the expected cost per life saved from a prediction system. We improve upon previous work by directly modeling the expected cost per life saved rather than using the ratio of the expected cost to the expected number of lives saved, which we show is always an underestimate. The model is applied numerically to the San Francisco Bay area and the expected cost per life saved from an earthquake prediction system over a 50 year period is found to be $3.3 million. While the amount is quite high, it is substantially lower than the corresponding expected cost per life saved of$6.3 million from expenditures in earthquake engineering to improve building codes. Therefore, we conclude that earthquake prediction systems provide a valuable public good