En god og en dårlig nyhet: Om DNAs effekt på oppklaringsprosenten i vinningssaker

Nordisk politiforskning er et Open Access-tidsskrift. Hele tidsskriftet er tilgjengelig på Idunn: https://www.idunn.no/nordisk_politiforskning/2016/01The expansion of the Norwegian DNA database in 2008, the so called «DNA reform», was founded on the belief that DNA increases the detection rate of volume crime significantly. We have conducted a study of Norwegian police registers to see what effects DNA actually has on detection rates in volume crime. The good news is that there is little doubt that DNA affects the detection rate. The overall detection rate for the criminal offenses we have studied in our selected police districts in the selected period was 8 %. In cases with a DNA profile the detection rate was 44 %. In cases with hits against the DNA identity register the detection rate was 81%, and in cases with hits against the DNA investigation register the detection rate was 62 %. However, the bad news is the very low proportion of cases where police gather biological samples which result in a DNA-profile and hits. This implies that no matter how high the detection rate is in cases with DNA profile, it will not affect the overall detection rate

En god og en dårlig nyhet: Om DNAs effekt på oppklaringsprosenten i vinningssaker

Nordisk politiforskning er et Open Access-tidsskrift. Hele tidsskriftet er tilgjengelig på Idunn: https://www.idunn.no/nordisk_politiforskning/2016/01The expansion of the Norwegian DNA database in 2008, the so called «DNA reform», was founded on the belief that DNA increases the detection rate of volume crime significantly. We have conducted a study of Norwegian police registers to see what effects DNA actually has on detection rates in volume crime. The good news is that there is little doubt that DNA affects the detection rate. The overall detection rate for the criminal offenses we have studied in our selected police districts in the selected period was 8 %. In cases with a DNA profile the detection rate was 44 %. In cases with hits against the DNA identity register the detection rate was 81%, and in cases with hits against the DNA investigation register the detection rate was 62 %. However, the bad news is the very low proportion of cases where police gather biological samples which result in a DNA-profile and hits. This implies that no matter how high the detection rate is in cases with DNA profile, it will not affect the overall detection rate

Baby Can\u27t Wait

https://digitalcommons.psjhealth.org/summit_all/1069/thumbnail.jp

Elucidating the present-day chemical composition, seasonality and source regions of climate-relevant aerosols across the Arctic land surface

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average, and the role of aerosols is not well constrained. Aerosol number concentrations can be very low in remote environments, rendering local cloud radiative properties highly sensitive to available aerosol. The composition and sources of the climate-relevant aerosols, affecting Arctic cloud formation and altering their microphysics, remain largely elusive due to a lack of harmonized concurrent multi-component, multi-site, and multi-season observations. Here, we present a dataset on the overall chemical composition and seasonal variability of the Arctic total particulate matter (with a size cut at 10 mu m, PM10, or without any size cut) at eight observatories representing all Arctic sectors. Our holistic observational approach includes the Russian Arctic, a significant emission source area with less dedicated aerosol monitoring, and extends beyond the more traditionally studied summer period and black carbon/sulfate or fine-mode pollutants. The major airborne Arctic PM components in terms of dry mass are sea salt, secondary (non-sea-salt, nss) sulfate, and organic aerosol (OA), with minor contributions from elemental carbon (EC) and ammonium. We observe substantial spatiotemporal variability in component ratios, such as EC/OA, ammonium/nss-sulfate and OA/nss-sulfate, and fractional contributions to PM. When combined with component-specific back-trajectory analysis to identify marine or terrestrial origins, as well as the companion study by Moschos et al 2022 Nat. Geosci. focusing on OA, the composition analysis provides policy-guiding observational insights into sector-based differences in natural and anthropogenic Arctic aerosol sources. In this regard, we first reveal major source regions of inner-Arctic sea salt, biogenic sulfate, and natural organics, and highlight an underappreciated wintertime source of primary carbonaceous aerosols (EC and OA) in West Siberia, potentially associated with the oil and gas sector. The presented dataset can assist in reducing uncertainties in modelling pan-Arctic aerosol-climate interactions, as the major contributors to yearly aerosol mass can be constrained. These models can then be used to predict the future evolution of individual inner-Arctic atmospheric PM components in light of current and emerging pollution mitigation measures and improved region-specific emission inventories.Peer reviewe

Equal abundance of summertime natural and wintertime anthropogenic Arctic organic aerosols

Organic aerosols in the Arctic are predominantly fuelled by anthropogenic sources in winter and natural sources in summer, according to observations from eight sites across the Arctic Aerosols play an important yet uncertain role in modulating the radiation balance of the sensitive Arctic atmosphere. Organic aerosol is one of the most abundant, yet least understood, fractions of the Arctic aerosol mass. Here we use data from eight observatories that represent the entire Arctic to reveal the annual cycles in anthropogenic and biogenic sources of organic aerosol. We show that during winter, the organic aerosol in the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions, mainly from Eurasia, which consist of both direct combustion emissions and long-range transported, aged pollution. In summer, the decreasing anthropogenic pollution is replaced by natural emissions. These include marine secondary, biogenic secondary and primary biological emissions, which have the potential to be important to Arctic climate by modifying the cloud condensation nuclei properties and acting as ice-nucleating particles. Their source strength or atmospheric processing is sensitive to nutrient availability, solar radiation, temperature and snow cover. Our results provide a comprehensive understanding of the current pan-Arctic organic aerosol, which can be used to support modelling efforts that aim to quantify the climate impacts of emissions in this sensitive region.Peer reviewe

Tallenes tale: bruk av statistikk i den kriminalpolitiske offentligheten

Temaet for artikkelen er tallenes overbevisningskraft. Artikkelen ser nærmere på hvilke roller statistikk og kvantitativ samfunnsforskning spiller i den kriminalpolitiske offentligheten. Det er gjennomført en analyse av medieoppslag og offentlige dokumenter i tilknytning til to kriminalpolitiske tiltak, videoovervåkning og DNA-reformen. Begge tiltak oppfattes som effektive virkemidler i kriminalitetsbekjempelsen og har jevnt over stor oppslutning. Samtidig kan det reises innvendinger mot tiltakene ut fra personvern- og rettssikkerhetshensyn. For begge tiltakene viser analysen at overbevisende men feilaktige tall som viser svært positive effekter av tiltakene, har hatt betydning på et tidlig stadium. Når disse tallene senere har blitt utfordret eller erstattet av mer nyanserte og korrekte tall, har dette i liten grad hatt effekt på tiltakenes legitimitet. I stedet viser analysen at det opprinnelige fokus; kriminalitetsreduksjon og/eller oppklaringsprosenter, erstattes av andre suksesskriterier, som også lar seg tallfeste. Formålet med artikkelen er å bidra til forskningen om statistikk som kunnskapsdisiplin med en analyse av hvordan tall anvendes i den kriminalpolitiske offentligheten

Fra spor til dom : en evaluering av DNA-reformen

Denne rapporten presenterer en evaluering av DNA-reformen utført på oppdrag fra Politidirektoratet av Johanne Yttri Dahl og Heidi Mork Lomell ved Politihøgskolens forskningsavdeling. I Norge ble adgangen til å registrere DNA-profiler i strafferettspleien utvidet betraktelig i 2008 i det som gjerne omtales som DNA-reformen. Målet med DNA-reformen var å effektivisere etterforskningen og øke sannsynligheten for oppklaring av straffesaker, ikke bare for alvorlig kriminalitet men også det som gjerne omtales som «hverdagskriminalitet», da særlig vinningslovbrudd. Fra politisk hold var det, basert på erfaringer blant annet fra Storbritannia, forventninger om at DNA-reformen ville gi vesentlig økning i oppklaringsprosenten, ikke minst når det gjaldt vinningslovbrudd. I del I i rapporten analyseres DNAs betydning for oppklaring av vinningskriminalitet og voldtekter. I del II presenteres politiets, påtalemyndighetens og domstolenes synspunkter på og erfaringer med DNA. Evalueringen baserer seg på tre ulike datasett: En kvantitativ spørreundersøkelse til alle politiansatte samt dommere og forsvarsadvokater, en kvantitativ undersøkelse av ulike politiregistre og en kvalitativ intervjuundersøkelse. Registeranalysen tok utgangspunkt i utvalgte vinningssaker (grovt og simpelt tyveri fra villa, leilighet og motorkjøretøy) og voldtektssaker fra ni politidistrikt i perioden 2009-2011. Ved hjelp av data fra BL, PAL for STRASAK og PAL for eDNA er DNAs betydning for oppklaring av saker undersøkt. Vi har analysert saker hvor det er sendt inn sporprøver til DNA-analyse hos Folkehelseinstituttet (FHI) og undersøkt oppklaringsprosent samt en rekke andre aspekter ved saker med og uten DNA-profil. (Fyldigere sammendrag med anbefalinger i rapporten)

Elucidating the present-day chemical composition, seasonality and source regions of climate-relevant aerosols across the Arctic land surface

The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average, and the role of aerosols is not well constrained. Aerosol number concentrations can be very low in remote environments, rendering local cloud radiative properties highly sensitive to available aerosol. The composition and sources of the climate-relevant aerosols, affecting Arctic cloud formation and altering their microphysics, remain largely elusive due to a lack of harmonized concurrent multi-component, multi-site, and multi-season observations. Here, we present a dataset on the overall chemical composition and seasonal variability of the Arctic total particulate matter (with a size cut at 10 mu m, PM10, or without any size cut) at eight observatories representing all Arctic sectors. Our holistic observational approach includes the Russian Arctic, a significant emission source area with less dedicated aerosol monitoring, and extends beyond the more traditionally studied summer period and black carbon/sulfate or fine-mode pollutants. The major airborne Arctic PM components in terms of dry mass are sea salt, secondary (non-sea-salt, nss) sulfate, and organic aerosol (OA), with minor contributions from elemental carbon (EC) and ammonium. We observe substantial spatiotemporal variability in component ratios, such as EC/OA, ammonium/nss-sulfate and OA/nss-sulfate, and fractional contributions to PM. When combined with component-specific back-trajectory analysis to identify marine or terrestrial origins, as well as the companion study by Moschos et al 2022 Nat. Geosci. focusing on OA, the composition analysis provides policy-guiding observational insights into sector-based differences in natural and anthropogenic Arctic aerosol sources. In this regard, we first reveal major source regions of inner-Arctic sea salt, biogenic sulfate, and natural organics, and highlight an underappreciated wintertime source of primary carbonaceous aerosols (EC and OA) in West Siberia, potentially associated with the oil and gas sector. The presented dataset can assist in reducing uncertainties in modelling pan-Arctic aerosol-climate interactions, as the major contributors to yearly aerosol mass can be constrained. These models can then be used to predict the future evolution of individual inner-Arctic atmospheric PM components in light of current and emerging pollution mitigation measures and improved region-specific emission inventories.EER

Equal abundance of summertime natural and wintertime anthropogenic Arctic organic aerosols

Aerosols play an important yet uncertain role in modulating the radiation balance of the sensitive Arctic atmosphere. Organic aerosol is one of the most abundant, yet least understood, fractions of the Arctic aerosol mass. Here we use data from eight observatories that represent the entire Arctic to reveal the annual cycles in anthropogenic and biogenic sources of organic aerosol. We show that during winter, the organic aerosol in the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions, mainly from Eurasia, which consist of both direct combustion emissions and long-range transported, aged pollution. In summer, the decreasing anthropogenic pollution is replaced by natural emissions. These include marine secondary, biogenic secondary and primary biological emissions, which have the potential to be important to Arctic climate by modifying the cloud condensation nuclei properties and acting as ice-nucleating particles. Their source strength or atmospheric processing is sensitive to nutrient availability, solar radiation, temperature and snow cover. Our results provide a comprehensive understanding of the current pan-Arctic organic aerosol, which can be used to support modelling efforts that aim to quantify the climate impacts of emissions in this sensitive region