A social forecast revisited

In 1971, the authors produced a 30-year forecast of leisure in the UK. In 2001 they obtained survey data for comparison with the forecasts. The paper presents the original forecasts and describes the methods used to produce them, assesses their accuracy in the light of the survey data, and concludes with some reflections on the underlying forecasting methodology and on changes in leisure patterns

Dental equipment test during zero-gravity flight

The overall objectives of this program were to establish performance criteria and develop prototype equipment for use in the Health Maintenance Facility (HMF) in meeting the needs of dental emergencies during space missions. The primary efforts during this flight test were to test patient-operator relationships, patent (manikin) restraint and positioning, task lighting systems, use and operation of dental rotary instruments, suction and particle containment system, dental hand instrument delivery and control procedures, and the use of dental treatment materials. The initial efforts during the flight focused on verification of the efficiency of the particle containment system. An absorptive barrier was also tested in lieu of the suction collector. To test the instrument delivery system, teeth in the manikin were prepared with the dental drill to receive restorations, some with temporary filling materials and another with definitive filling material (composite resin). The best particle containment came from the combination use of the laminar-air/suction collector in concert with immediate area suction from a surgical high-volume suction tip. Lighting in the treatment area was provided by a flexible fiberoptic probe. This system is quite effective for small areas, but for general tasks ambient illumination is required. The instrument containment system (elastic cord network) was extremely effective and easy to use. The most serious problem with instrument delivey and actual treatment was lack of time during the microgravity sequences. The restorative materials handled and finished well

Health maintenance facility: Dental equipment requirements

The objectives were to test the effectiveness of the Health Maintenance Facility (HMF) dental suction/particle containment system, which controls fluids and debris generated during simulated dental treatment, in microgravity; to test the effectiveness of fiber optic intraoral lighting systems in microgravity, while simulating dental treatment; and to evaluate the operation and function of off-the-shelf dental handheld instruments, namely a portable dental hand drill and temporary filling material, in microgravity. A description of test procedures, including test set-up, flight equipment, and the data acquisition system, is given

Valuing adaptation under rapid change

AbstractThe methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change.Please cite this report as: Jones, RN, Young, CK, Handmer, J, Keating, A, Mekala, GD, Sheehan, P 2013 Valuing adaptation under rapid change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 192.The methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change

Influence of human pressures on large river structure and function

A large river study was conducted as part of the Cross Departmental Research Pool (CDRP) ecological integrity project to (i) provide an overview of the macroinvertebrate faunas of large rivers, including those in deep-water habitats, and (ii) to elucidate links between these faunas, river function and anthropogenic stressors. Eleven sites on 6th-order or 7th-order rivers were sampled; four in the South Island and seven in the North Island. We measured (i) macroinvertebrate communities colonising wood, riffles (where present), littoral habitats (1.5 m deep) (ii) ecosystem metabolism using a single-station open-channel approach based on natural changes in dissolved oxygen concentration over a 24-hour period, and (iii) wood and cellulose breakdown. Relationships were investigated between these response variables and reach-scale assessments of habitat quality, underlying upstream and segment environmental variables provided in the Freshwater Environments of New Zealand (FWENZ) database, and anthropogenic pressure variables provided by the Waters of National Importance (WONI) database