Transformer Risk Assessment

Abstract: This paper describes computational techniques for computing risk associated with voltage insecurity, where risk is assessed as the product of probability and consequence of under-voltage and voltage collapse. In contrast to deterministic assessment of voltage security, our approach directly accounts for uncertainties in the analysis. An approach for operational assessment is provided that uses continuation power flow methods. In addition, a planning approach is described which utilizes an interior point optimization method to identify maximum loading conditions over a sequential trajectory of operating conditions. Analysis of the IEEE Reliability Test System illustrates results that are obtained from the approaches