Effectiveness of the Easing of Monetary Policy in the Japanese Economy, Incorporating Energy Prices

Japan has reached the limits of conventional macroeconomic policy. In order to overcome deflation and achieve sustainable economic growth, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently set an inflation target of 2% and implemented an aggressive monetary policy so this target could be achieved as soon as possible. Although prices started to rise after the BOJ implemented monetary easing, this may have been for other reasons, such as higher oil prices. Oil became expensive as a result of the depreciated Japanese yen and this was one of the main causes of the rise in inflation. This paper shows that quantitative easing may not have stimulated the Japanese economy either. Aggregate demand, which includes private investment, did not increase significantly in Japan with lower interest rates. Private investment displays this unconventional behavior because of uncertainty about the future and because Japan's population is aging. We believe that the remedy for Japan's economic policy is not to be found in monetary policy. The government needs to implement serious structural changes and growth strategies

SME Credit Risk Analysis Using Bank Lending Data: An Analysis of Thai SMEs

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of most Asian economies. The main obstacle to the development of the SME sector is the lack of stable finance. Considering the bank-dominated characteristic of economies in Asia, banks are the main source of financing, and the lack of a comprehensive credit rating database has been a bottleneck for SMEs. This paper examines how a credit rating scheme for SMEs can be developed, when access to other financial and non-financial ratios is not possible, by using data on lending by banks to SMEs. We employ statistical techniques on five variables from a sample of Thai SMEs and classify them into subgroups based on their financial health. By employing these techniques, banks could reduce information asymmetry and consequently set interest rates and lending ceilings for SMEs. This would ease financing to healthy SMEs and reduce the amount of non-performing loans to this important sector

Numerical study of the ordering of the +-J XY spin-glass ladder

The properties of the domain-wall energy and of the correlation length are studied numerically for the one-dimensional +-J XY spin glass on the two-leg ladder lattice, focusing on both the spin and the chirality degrees of freedom. Analytic results obtained by Ney-Niftle et al for the same model were confirmed for asymptotically large lattices, while the approach to the asymptotic limit is slow and sometimes even non-monotonic. Attention is called to the occurrence of the SO(2)-Z_2 decoupling and its masking in spin correlations, the latter reflecting the inequality between the SO(2) and Z_2 exponents. Discussion is given concerning the behaviors of the higher-dimensional models.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figure

High-energy head-on collisions of particles and hoop conjecture

We investigate the apparent horizon formation for high-energy head-on collisions of particles in multi-dimensional spacetime. The apparent horizons formed before the instance of particle collision are obtained analytically. Using these solutions, we discuss the feature of the apparent horizon formation in the multi-dimensional spacetime from the viewpoint of the hoop conjecture.Comment: 4pages, 4figure

Japan's Lost Decade: Lessons for Other Economies

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the 1990s, a phenomenon dubbed "Japan's Lost Decade." The People's Republic of China, many countries in the eurozone, and the United States may face similar problems in future and they have been concerned by Japan's long-term recession. This paper will address why Japan's economy has stagnated since the bursting of its economic bubble. Our empirical analysis challenges the beliefs of some western economists, such as Paul Krugman, that the Japanese economy is in a liquidity trap. We argue that Japan's economic stagnation stems from a vertical IS curve rather than a liquidity trap. The impact of fiscal policy has declined drastically, and the Japanese economy faces structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. These structural problems have many causes: an aging demographic (a problem that is frequently overlooked), an over-reliance by local governments on transfers from the central government, and Basel capital requirements that have made Japanese banks reluctant to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises. This latter issue has discouraged Japanese innovation and technological progress. The paper will address all these issues empirically and theoretically and will provide some remedies for Japan's long-lasting recession

Three Arrows of 'Abenomics' and the Structural Reform of Japan: Inflation Targeting Policy of the Central Bank, Fiscal Consolidation, and Growth Strategy

"Abenomics" refers to the economic policies advocated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who became prime minister of Japan for a second time when his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, won an overwhelming majority at the general election in December 2012. Abenomics has "three arrows": (i) aggressive monetary policy, (ii) fiscal consolidation, and (iii) growth strategy. The Japanese economy faces an aging population and expanding social welfare expenses. No other country has experienced Japan's rapid growth of retired people. In this paper we will explain these three aspects of Abenomics and the current state of the Japanese economy, and examine what further remedies may be required if Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. We look at such proposals as hometown investment trust funds and postponing of the retirement age through the introduction of a flexible wage rate system

Causes and Remedies for Japan's Long-Lasting Recession: Lessons for the People's Republic of China

Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the early 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the causes of the prolonged slowdown of the Japanese economy (the lost decade). Economics Nobel laureate Paul Krugman has argued that Japan's lost decade is an example of a liquidity trap. However, our empirical analysis shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from its vertical IS curve rather than a horizontal LM curve, so the Japanese economy faces structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. The structural problems mainly come from the aging demographic, which is often neglected in other studies, and also from the allocation of transfers from the central government to local governments, and the unwillingness of Japanese banks to lend money to startup businesses and SMEs, mainly because of Basel capital requirements. Many countries, like the People's Republic of China, are expected to face similar issues, particularly the aging population, and so are very much concerned about the long-term recession that Japan has experienced. This paper will address why the Japanese economy has been trapped in a prolonged slowdown and will provide some remedies for revitalizing the economy

Adjustments of Capital Account Restrictions and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia

This paper discusses adjustments of capital account restrictions and exchange rate regimes in East Asia. Monetary authorities have two options for these adjustments: gradual adjustments or rapid adjustments. We analyze the costs and benefits for both adjustment options in each area, i.e., capital account restrictions and exchange rate regime. The paper provides prominent country cases for each adjustment option to emphasize the benefits for policymakers. We then propose four transition policy options for East Asian countries aiming to relax capital account restrictions and increase flexibility in exchange rates from fixed regimes with capital account controls