Stochastic comparisons of stratified sampling techniques for some Monte Carlo estimators

We compare estimators of the (essential) supremum and the integral of a function $f$ defined on a measurable space when $f$ may be observed at a sample of points in its domain, possibly with error. The estimators compared vary in their levels of stratification of the domain, with the result that more refined stratification is better with respect to different criteria. The emphasis is on criteria related to stochastic orders. For example, rather than compare estimators of the integral of $f$ by their variances (for unbiased estimators), or mean square error, we attempt the stronger comparison of convex order when possible. For the supremum, the criterion is based on the stochastic order of estimators.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ295 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Evolutionarily stable strategies of random games, and the vertices of random polygons

An evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) is an equilibrium strategy that is immune to invasions by rare alternative (``mutant'') strategies. Unlike Nash equilibria, ESS do not always exist in finite games. In this paper we address the question of what happens when the size of the game increases: does an ESS exist for ``almost every large'' game? Letting the entries in the $n\times n$ game matrix be independently randomly chosen according to a distribution $F$, we study the number of ESS with support of size $2.$ In particular, we show that, as $n\to \infty$, the probability of having such an ESS: (i) converges to 1 for distributions $F$ with ``exponential and faster decreasing tails'' (e.g., uniform, normal, exponential); and (ii) converges to $1-1/\sqrt{e}$ for distributions $F$ with ``slower than exponential decreasing tails'' (e.g., lognormal, Pareto, Cauchy). Our results also imply that the expected number of vertices of the convex hull of $n$ random points in the plane converges to infinity for the distributions in (i), and to 4 for the distributions in (ii).Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AAP455 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Functional BRK Inequalities, and their Duals, with Applications

Refereed Working Papers / of international relevanc

Monotone Regrouping, Regression, and Simpson’s Paradox

We show in a general setup that if data Y are grouped by a covariate X in a certain way, then under a condition of monotone regression of Y on X, a Simpson’s type paradox is natural rather than surprising. This model was motivated by an observation on recent SAT data which are presented.We show in a general setup that if data Y are grouped by a covariate X in a certain way, then under a condition of monotone regression of Y on X, a Simpson’s type paradox is natural rather than surprising. This model was motivated by an observation on recent SAT data which are presented.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

On Statistical Inference Under Selection Bias

This note revisits the problem of selection bias, using a simple binomial example. It focuses on selection that is introduced by observing the data and making decisions prior to formal statistical analysis. Decision rules and interpretation of confidence measure and results must then be taken relative to the point of view of the decision maker, i.e., before selection or after it. Such a distinction is important since inference can be considerably altered when the decision maker's point of view changes. This note demonstrates the issue, using both the frequentist and the Bayesian paradigms.This note revisits the problem of selection bias, using a simple binomial example. It focuses on selection that is introduced by observing the data and making decisions prior to formal statistical analysis. Decision rules and interpretation of confidence measure and results must then be taken relative to the point of view of the decision maker, i.e., before selection or after it. Such a distinction is important since inference can be considerably altered when the decision maker's point of view changes. This note demonstrates the issue, using both the frequentist and the Bayesian paradigms.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl

Best Invariant and Minimax Estimation of Quantiles in Finite Populations

We study estimation of finite population quantiles, with emphasis on estimators that are invariant under monotone transformations of the data, and suitable invariant loss functions. We discuss non-randomized and randomized estimators, best invariant and minimax estimators and sampling strategies relative to different classes. The combination of natural invariance of the kind discussed here, and finite population sampling appears to be novel, and leads to interesting statistical and combinatorial aspects.We study estimation of finite population quantiles, with emphasis on estimators that are invariant under monotone transformations of the data, and suitable invariant loss functions. We discuss non-randomized and randomized estimators, best invariant and minimax estimators and sampling strategies relative to different classes. The combination of natural invariance of the kind discussed here, and finite population sampling appears to be novel, and leads to interesting statistical and combinatorial aspects.Non-Refereed Working Papers / of national relevance onl