Improved Clear Sky Model from In Situ Observations and Spatial Distribution of Aerosol Optical Depth for Satellite-Derived Solar Irradiance over the Korean Peninsula

In solar resource assessment, the climatological environment of the target area is objectively quantified by the cloudiness or clear sky index, which is defined as the ratio of global horizontal irradiance to clear sky solar insolation. The clear sky model calculates incoming solar irradiance on the ground surface considering several atmospheric parameters such as water vapor and aerosol optical depth. This study investigated the importance of aerosol optical depth for deriving clear sky irradiance in radiative transfer models and examined its viability in a universal or community model for public use. The evaluation was conducted based on ground observations at the Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER) station from January to December 2021. The original simulation was performed using the monthly mean of aerosol optical depth obtained from the Aerosol Robotic Network station; the mean absolute error was 29.9 W m−2. When the daily mean of in situ observations at KIER was incorporated into the clear sky model, the mean absolute error was reduced to 9.7 W m−2. Our results confirm that the clear sky model using gridded datasets of aerosol optical depth is suitable for use as a universal or community model

Improved Clear Sky Model from In Situ Observations and Spatial Distribution of Aerosol Optical Depth for Satellite-Derived Solar Irradiance over the Korean Peninsula

In solar resource assessment, the climatological environment of the target area is objectively quantified by the cloudiness or clear sky index, which is defined as the ratio of global horizontal irradiance to clear sky solar insolation. The clear sky model calculates incoming solar irradiance on the ground surface considering several atmospheric parameters such as water vapor and aerosol optical depth. This study investigated the importance of aerosol optical depth for deriving clear sky irradiance in radiative transfer models and examined its viability in a universal or community model for public use. The evaluation was conducted based on ground observations at the Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER) station from January to December 2021. The original simulation was performed using the monthly mean of aerosol optical depth obtained from the Aerosol Robotic Network station; the mean absolute error was 29.9 W m−2. When the daily mean of in situ observations at KIER was incorporated into the clear sky model, the mean absolute error was reduced to 9.7 W m−2. Our results confirm that the clear sky model using gridded datasets of aerosol optical depth is suitable for use as a universal or community model

Comparative Evaluation of the Third-Generation Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment of the Southwestern Offshore in South Korea

This study evaluated the applicability of long-term datasets among third-generation reanalysis data CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA, and MERRA-2 to determine which dataset is more suitable when performing wind resource assessment for the ‘Southwest 2.5 GW Offshore Wind Power Project’, which is currently underway strategically in South Korea. The evaluation was performed by comparing the reanalyses with offshore, onshore, and island meteorological tower measurements obtained in and around the southwest offshore. In the pre-processing of the measurement data, the shading sectors due to a meteorological tower were excluded from all observation data, and the measurement heights at the offshore meteorological towers were corrected considering the sea level change caused by tidal difference. To reflect the orographic forcing by terrain features, the reanalysis data were transformed by using WindSim, a flow model based on computational fluid dynamics and statistical-dynamic downscaling. The comparison of the reanalyses with the measurement data showed the fitness in the following order in terms of coefficient of determination: MERRA-2 > CFSR = MERRA > ERA-Interim. Since the measurement data at the onshore meteorological towers strongly revealed a local wind system such as sea-land breeze, it is judged to be inappropriate for use as supplementary data for offshore wind resource assessment

Offshore Wind Speed Forecasting: The Correlation between Satellite-Observed Monthly Sea Surface Temperature and Wind Speed over the Seas around the Korean Peninsula

Wind power forecasting is a key role for large-scale wind power penetration on conventional electric power systems by understanding stochastic nature of winds. This paper proposes an empirical statistical model for forecasting monthly offshore wind speeds as a function of remotely sensed sea surface temperatures over the seas around the Korean Peninsula. The model uses the optimal lagged multiple linear regression method, and predictors are characterized by mixed periodicities derived from the autocorrelation between spatially variable satellite-observed sea surface temperatures and wind speeds at all grid points over a period of about ten years (2001 to 2008). Offshore wind speeds were found to be correlated with sea surface temperatures within a seasonal range of two- to four-month lags. In particular, offshore wind speeds were closely associated with the sea surface temperature at lag 4 M, followed by lag 3 M and lag 2 M. Correlation is less at lag 1 M as compared lag 2 M, lag 3 M and lag 4 M. The results demonstrate that this approach successfully produces accurate depictions of monthly wind speeds at the gridded network. The hindcast offshore wind speeds and wind power density showed slightly improved skills compared to the seasonally varying climatology with the value of root-mean square errors, +18% and +23%, respectively. The spatial distributions of the monthly gridded wind speed and wind power density remained fairly stable from one month to another, whereas individual regions displayed slight differences in variability. The results of this study are expected to be useful in establishing guidelines for operating and managing nascent offshore farms around the Korean Peninsula

Prefeasibility Study of Photovoltaic Power Potential Based on a Skew-Normal Distribution

Solar energy does not always follow the normal distribution due to the characteristics of natural energy. The system advisor model (SAM), a well-known energy performance analysis program, analyzes exceedance probabilities by dividing solar irradiance into two cases, i.e., when normal distribution is followed, and when normal distribution is not followed. However, it does not provide a mathematical model for data distribution when not following the normal distribution. The present study applied the skew-normal distribution when solar irradiance does not follow the normal distribution, and calculated photovoltaic power potential to compare the result with those using the two existing methods. It determined which distribution was more appropriate between normal and skew-normal distributions using the Jarque–Bera test, and then the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). As a result, three places in Korea showed that the skew-normal distribution was more appropriate than the normal distribution during the summer and winter seasons. The AICc relative likelihood between two models was more than 0.3, which showed that the difference between the two models was not extremely high. However, considering that the proportion of uncertainty of solar irradiance in photovoltaic projects was 5% to 17%, more accurate models need to be chosen

Determining the Optimized Hub Height of Wind Turbine Using the Wind Resource Map of South Korea

Although the size of the wind turbine has become larger to improve the economic feasibility of wind power generation, whether increases in rotor diameter and hub height always lead to the optimization of energy cost remains to be seen. This paper proposes an algorithm that calculates the optimized hub height to minimize the cost of energy (COE) using the regional wind profile database. The optimized hub height was determined by identifying the minimum COE after calculating the annual energy production (AEP) and cost increase, according to hub height increase, by using the wind profiles of the wind resource map in South Korea and drawing the COE curve. The optimized hub altitude was calculated as 75~80 m in the inland plain but as 60~70 m in onshore or mountain sites, where the wind profile at the lower layer from the hub height showed relatively strong wind speed than that in inland plain. The AEP loss due to the decrease in hub height was compensated for by increasing the rotor diameter, in which case COE also decreased in the entire region of South Korea. The proposed algorithm of identifying the optimized hub height is expected to serve as a good guideline when determining the hub height according to different geographic regions

Spatiotemporal Optimization for Short-Term Solar Forecasting Based on Satellite Imagery

Solar forecasting is essential for optimizing the integration of solar photovoltaic energy into a power grid. This study presents solar forecasting models based on satellite imagery. The cloud motion vector (CMV) model is the most popular satellite-image-based solar forecasting model. However, it assumes constant cloud states, and its accuracy is, thus, influenced by changes in local weather characteristics. To overcome this limitation, satellite images are used to provide spatial data for a new spatiotemporal optimized model for solar forecasting. Four satellite-image-based solar forecasting models (a persistence model, CMV, and two proposed models that use clear-sky index change) are evaluated. The error distributions of the models and their spatial characteristics over the test area are analyzed. All models exhibited different performances according to the forecast horizon and location. Spatiotemporal optimization of the best model is then conducted using best-model maps, and our results show that the skill score of the optimized model is 21% better than the previous CMV model. It is, thus, considered to be appropriate for use in short-term forecasting over large areas. The results of this study are expected to promote the use of spatial data in solar forecasting models, which could improve their accuracy and provide various insights for the planning and operation of photovoltaic plants

Intercomparison of Satellite-Derived Solar Irradiance from the GEO-KOMSAT-2A and HIMAWARI-8/9 Satellites by the Evaluation with Ground Observations

Solar irradiance derived from satellite imagery is useful for solar resource assessment, as well as climate change research without spatial limitation. The University of Arizona Solar Irradiance Based on Satellite–Korea Institute of Energy Research (UASIBS-KIER) model has been updated to version 2.0 in order to employ the satellite imagery produced by the new satellite platform, GK-2A, launched on 5 December 2018. The satellite-derived solar irradiance from UASIBS-KIER model version 2.0 is evaluated against the two ground observations in Korea at instantaneous, hourly, and daily time scales in comparison with the previous version of UASIBS-KIER model that was optimized for the COMS satellite. The root mean square error of the UASIBS-KIER model version 2.0, normalized for clear-sky solar irradiance, ranges from 4.8% to 5.3% at the instantaneous timescale when the sky is clear. For cloudy skies, the relative root mean square error values are 14.5% and 15.9% at the stations located in Korea and Japan, respectively. The model performance was improved when the UASIBS-KIER model version 2.0 was used for the derivation of solar irradiance due to the finer spatial resolution. The daily aggregates from the proposed model are proven to be the most reliable estimates, with 0.5 km resolution, compared with the solar irradiance derived by the other models. Therefore, the solar resource map built by major outputs from the UASIBS-KIER model is appropriate for solar resource assessment

Solar Resource Potentials and Annual Capacity Factor Based on the Korean Solar Irradiance Datasets Derived by the Satellite Imagery from 1996 to 2019

The Korea Institute of Energy Research builds Korean solar irradiance datasets, using gridded solar insolation estimates derived using the University of Arizona solar irradiance based on Satellite–Korea Institute of Energy Research (UASIBS–KIER) model, with the incorporation of geostationary satellites over the Korean Peninsula, from 1996 to 2019. During the investigation period, the monthly mean of daily total irradiance was in a good agreement with the in situ measurements at 18 ground stations; the mean absolute error is also normalized to 9.4%. It is observed that the irradiance estimates in the datasets have been gradually increasing at a rate of 0.019 kWh m−2 d−1 per year. The monthly variation in solar irradiance indicates that the meteorological conditions in the spring season dominate the annual solar insolation. In addition, the local distribution of solar irradiance is primarily affected by the geographical environment; higher solar insolation is observed in the southern part of Korea, but lower solar insolation is observed in the mountainous range in Korea. The annual capacity factor is the secondary output from the Korean solar irradiance datasets. The reliability of the estimate of this factor is proven by the high correlation coefficient of 0.912. Thus, in accordance with the results from the spatial distribution of solar irradiance, the southern part of Korea is an appropriate region for establishing solar power plants exhibiting a higher annual capacity factor than the other regions

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Hydrogen Requirement to Minimize Seasonal Variability in Future Solar and Wind Energy in South Korea

Renewable energy supply is essential for carbon neutrality; however, technologies aiming to optimally utilize renewable energy sources remain insufficient. Seasonal variability in renewable energy is a key issue, which many studies have attempted to overcome through operating systems and energy storage. Currently, hydrogen is the only technology that can solve this seasonal storage problem. In this study, the amount of hydrogen required to circumvent the seasonal variability in renewable energy supply in Korea was quantified. Spatiotemporal analysis was conducted using renewable energy resource maps and power loads. It was predicted that 50% of the total power demand in the future will be met using solar and wind power, and a scenario was established based on the solar-to-wind ratio. It was found that the required hydrogen production differed by approximately four-times, depending on the scenarios, highlighting the importance of supplying renewable energy at an appropriate ratio. Spatially, wind power was observed to be unsuitable for the physical transport of hydrogen because it has a high potential at mountain peaks and islands. The results of this study are expected to aid future hydrogen research and solve renewable energy variability problems