Potential of a shopping street to serve as a food distribution center and an evacuation shelter during disasters: Case study of Kobe, Japan

This study demonstrates the potential use of a shopping street with disaster-proof buildings as a temporary evacuation shelter for local residents at the time of a disaster. We propose a simple estimation method to calculate the number of people for which the retail shops and restaurants in the shopping street can potentially provide food and drink using their inventory. We also estimate the number of evacuees that can be accommodated in the vacant spaces of the buildings. Our proposed method is applied to a shopping street in Kobe, Japan. While 5,200 people in the local community are expected to evacuate at the time of an earthquake, our survey shows that, in the case of power, gas, and water outages, the total amount of available food and drink supplied by the local shops and restaurants would be approximately 1,200 and 1,700 person-days, respectively. In another case, in which alternative facilities provide electricity, gas, and water, the amount of available food increases to about 2,800 person-days. Moreover, the building can provide space for overnight stay for approximately 2,300 people. The results also suggest that, by building stockpiles of food and drink in the unoccupied spaces of the building, the capacity of accommodating the local evacuees will be further enhanced. Future directions for more accurate and widely applicable estimation methods are also discussed

A multi-sector multi-region economic growth model of drought and the value of water: A case study in Pakistan

This study integrates ecohydrological vegetation and multi-sector multi-region economic growth models to evaluate the impacts of drought on markets and value the economic value of water. The values of several parameters of the agricultural production function are identified by applying leaf area indices that are simulated by the ecohydrological model, AgriCLVDAS. The three-sector three-region closed-economy model with the agricultural production functions of both irrigable and rainfed farmland as well as the stochastic process of precipitation and availability of river water are formulated to analyze the water rent as well as GDP growth in Pakistan under drought stress. According to the characteristics of the closed-economy model, the crop price is increased during drought periods because of the price hike in water (i.e., an increase in the marginal productivity of water, which is double that in high-water periods in Pakistan). The study further presents a way of investigating water resource management policies by applying comparative dynamics

Knowledge sharing, heterophily, and social network dynamics

This study formulates a model where (i) players are characterized by a knowledge set that changes endogenously by communication and (ii) some players have homophily preferences, while others have heterophily preferences. The study thus demonstrates that heterophilous players bridge different components and extend networks in an early stage and, subsequently, homophilous players take the role of a network hub that maintains network ties. It also illustrates the long-run knowledge distribution. Further, the model is embedded with new structural components that illustrate the strength of weak ties and the small-world phenomenon

Designing the building space of a shopping street to use as a disaster evacuation shelter during the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study in Kobe, Japan

This study considers the risk of a natural hazard-induced disaster occurring during a pandemic, such as the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, and develops the idea of utilizing a shopping street with disaster-proof buildings as a temporary evacuation shelter by incorporating countermeasures against the spread of infectious diseases. Using a case study of a shopping street in Kobe, Japan, we estimate shelter capacity by considering the requirement of 6 m2 of space allotted for each person. The shelter can accommodate 1194 evacuees and provide them with food and drinks for one day, even in the worst case of lifeline disruption. This study proposes a method of designing shelter space, and demonstrates how non-homogeneous and noncontinuous spaces within shopping street buildings can be applied to prevent the spread of infection, through the classification of evacuee types and use of space and facilities designated for each type. The study further examines the liability issue of secondary infection at the shelter with reference to civic law and the roles of government in developing a distributed evacuation framework

The total synthesis of (–)-crispatene

The total synthesis of the molluscan polypropionate (–)-crispatene is described. The synthesis features a palladium-catalyzed cross-coupling to establish a sensitive conjugated tetraene and its Lewis acid-catalyzed cycloisomerization to yield the bicyclo[3.1.0]hexene core of the natural product. The absolute configuration of (–)-crispatene and related molecules is established