Hub and spoke trade agreements under oligopoly with asymmetric costs

Using an oligopoly model of trade, we study the individual and world welfare implications of hub and spoke trade agreements. Under a hub and spoke regime, the hub country can benefit at the expense of the spokes relative to free trade. Furthermore, if the hub is sufficiently efficient compared to the spokes, such a regime can yield higher global welfare than free trade. Preferential treatment of the hub country in its export markets improves world welfare because it helps allocate a larger share of the world's output to a low cost location

Hub and spoke trade agreements under oligopoly with asymmetric costs

Using an oligopoly model of trade, we study the individual and world welfare implications of hub and spoke trade agreements. Under a hub and spoke regime, the hub country can benefit at the expense of the spokes relative to free trade. Furthermore, if the hub is sufficiently efficient compared to the spokes, such a regime can yield higher global welfare than free trade. Preferential treatment of the hub country in its export markets improves world welfare because it helps allocate a larger share of the world's output to a low cost location.oligopoly, hub and spoke trade agreements, global free trade

Hub and Spoke Trade Agreements under Oligopoly with Asymmetric Costs

Using an oligopoly model of trade with asymmetric costs, we study the individual and world welfare implications of a hub and spoke trade agreement where the hub country is more efficient than spoke countries. Under a hub and spoke trade regime, the hub country can benefit at the expense of the spokes relative to free trade. Furthermore, if the hub is sufficiently efficient compared to the spokes, such a regime can yield higher global welfare than free trade. Preferential treatment of the efficient hub country in its export markets improves world welfare because it helps allocate a larger share of the world's output to a low cost location.oligopoly, hub and spoke trade agreements, global free trade

Foreign Direct Investment and Customs Union: Incentives for Multilateral Tariff Cooperation over Free Trade

We examine the implications of a customs union (CU) on the pattern of tariffs, welfare and the prospects for free trade when the nonmember firm has an incentive to engage in foreign direct investment (FDI). First we show that upon the formation of a bilateral CU, the non-member firm has greater incentives to engage in FDI. However, when FDI becomes a feasible entry option for the nonmember firm under a CU, member countries have incentives to strategically induce export over FDI by lowering their joint external tariff. When fixed set-up cost of FDI is sufficiently low, this tariff falls below Kemp-Wan tariff and CU leads to a Pareto improvement relative to no agreement. Moreover, using an infinite repetition of the one-shot tariff game under a CU, we show that FDI incentive of the nonmember firm makes the member countries (nonmember country) more (less) willing to cooperate multilaterally over free trade.Customs Union, Foreign Direct Investment, Multilateral Tariff Cooperation.

FREE TRADE, AUTARKY AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF AN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENT

We determine the impact of free trade on the sustainability of an international environmental agreement (IEA) and incorporate it into the assessment of the net benefits of opening up to free trade. We show that such an analysis can reverse the conclusions reached within a standard one-shot game framework. First, we examine a one shot game and argue that the benefits from an increase in economic activity due to free trade outweigh the extra cost of free trade associated with larger environmental damage. Then, we analyze the infinite repetition of the one-shot game where countries can use trigger strategies and show that there exist circumstances where an IEA is sustainable under autarky but not under free trade. This aggravates the environmental damages caused by free trade and leads to the possibility that autarky may welfare dominate free trade. This conclusion remains valid even when countries adopt the most cooperative environmental policy when the "fully cooperative" environmental policy is not sustainable.

On the relationship between tariff levels and the nature of mergers

This paper employs an endogenous merger formation approach in a two-country oligopoly model of trade to examine the international linkages between the nature of mergers and tariff levels. Firms sell differentiated products and compete in a Bertrand fashion in product markets. We find two effects playing key roles in determining equilibrium market structure: the tariff saving effect and the protection gain effect. The balance between these two effects implies that, when foreign country practices free trade, unilateral tariff reduction by a domestic country yields international mergers irrespective of the substitutability levels. By contrast, when foreign tariffs are sufficiently high and products are close substitutes, national mergers obtain in the equilibrium. Therefore, the implications of unilateral trade liberalization on the equilibrium market structure depends on the trade regime in foreign country especially when products are close substitutes. Unlike this asymmetric result of unilateral trade liberalization, we find that when bilateral tariffs are sufficiently low, international mergers arise. These results fit well with the fact that global trade liberalization has been accompanied by an increase in international merger activities. Finally, from a welfare perspective, we show that international mergers are preferable to national mergers and thus social and private merger incentives become aligned together as trade gets bilaterally liberalized.international mergers, national mergers, tariff saving, protection gain

Welfare effects of preferential trade agreements under optimal tariffs

In a three country model with endogenous tariffs, this paper evaluates and contrasts the welfare effects of free trade agreements (FTAs) and customs unions (CUs) — the two most commonly occurring preferential trade agreements (PTAs). We show that if the external tariff of a PTA is not too high, it benefits both members and non-members. We also highlight the implications of a key (but commonly ignored) distinction between the two types of PTAs: while an FTA member can form an another (independent) FTA with an existing non-member, a CU member cannot. Under a pair of independent bilateral FTAs, the common member’s welfare is higher than that under free trade. Furthermore, if the common member is relatively efficient compared to the other two countries, such a ‘hub and spoke’ pattern of FTAs can yield higher global welfare than free trade. By contrast, such an outcome is never possible under a CU.Free Trade Agreements, Customs Unions, External Tariffs, Welfare, Intraindustry Trade, Oligopoly

Bilateral trade agreements and the feasibility of multilateral free trade

This paper compares stable Nash equilibria of two games of trade liberalization. In the FTA game, each country can form an FTA with either one of its trade partners, or both of them, or none of them. By contrast, in the No FTA game, each country must choose either no agreement or free trade. Under symmetry, free trade is uniquely stable under the No FTA game whereas the FTA game also admits a bilateral FTA as an equilibrium. However, there exist patterns of cost asymmetry for which the freedom to pursue bilateral FTAs is necessary for achieving global free trade.Multilateral Trade Liberalization, Free Trade Agreements, GATT, Intraindustry Trade, Oilgopoly

Bilateralism, multilateralism, and the quest for global free trade

We develop an equilibrium theory of trade agreements in which both the degree and the nature (bilateral or multilateral) of trade liberalization are endogenously determined. To determine whether and how bilateralism matters, we also analyze a scenario where countries pursue trade liberalization on only a multilateral basis. We find that when countries have asymmetric endowments or when governments value producer interests more than tari¤ revenue and consumer surplus, there exist circumstances where global free trade is a stable equilibrium only if countries are free to pursue bilateral trade agreements. By contrast, under symmetry, both bilateralism and multilateralism yield global free trade.Bilateral trade agreements, multilateral trade liberalization, free trade agreements, GATT

National Versus International Mergers and Trade Liberalization

This paper uses an endogenous merger formation approach in a concentrated international oligopoly to examine the effects of trade liberalization on the nature of merger incentives (national vs. international). The effects of unilateral trade liberalization on a country’s industry structure are found to be depending on the other country’s trade policy regime. If the other country practices free trade, unilateral liberalization by a country yields international mergers whereas if it practices a restrictive trade policy, national mergers arise. As trade gets bilaterally liberalized, the resulting equilibrium market structure is the one with international mergers. These results fit well with the fact that global trade liberalization has been accompanied by an increase in international merger activity. Among equilibrium market structures, international ones are found to be preferable from a welfare point of view. As a result, social and private incentives become aligned together as trade gets liberalized.National Mergers, International Mergers, Trade Liberalization