Forecasting the Covolatility of Coffee Arabica and Crude Oil Prices: A Multivariate GARCH Approach with High-Frequency Data

Forecasting the covolatility of asset return series is becoming the subject of extensive research among academics, practitioners, and portfolio managers. This paper estimates a variety of multivariate GARCH models using weekly closing price (in USD/barrel) of Brent crude oil and weekly closing prices (in USD/pound) of Coffee Arabica and compares the forecasting performance of these models based on high-frequency intraday data which allows for a more precise realized volatility measurement. The study used weekly price data to explicitly model covolatility and employed high-frequency intraday data to assess model forecasting performance. The analysis points to the conclusion that the varying conditional correlation (VCC) model with Student’s t distributed innovation terms is the most accurate volatility forecasting model in the context of our empirical setting. We recommend and encourage future researchers studying the forecasting performance of MGARCH models to pay particular attention to the measurement of realized volatility and employ high-frequency data whenever feasible

Health care utilization for common childhood illnesses in rural parts of Ethiopia: evidence from the 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey

Abstract Background Generally, health care utilization in developing countries is low particularly rural community have lower health care utilization. Despite this fact, little is known about the magnitude and determinants of health care utilization for common childhood illnesses in Ethiopia. Thus, this study was conducted to determine the magnitude and to identify determinants of health care utilization for common childhood illnesses in the rural parts of Ethiopia. Methods For this study, data were obtained from the 2016 Ethiopian demographic and health survey. A total of 1576 mothers of under-five children were included in the analysis. Data analysis was performed using R software. Both univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis were fitted to identify the determinants of health care utilization. Variables with a 95% confidence interval for odds ratio excluding one were considered as significant determinants of the outcome. Results The findings of this study revealed that only half (49.7%) (95%CI: 46.1–53.4%), 40.9% (95%CI 37.6–44.2%), and 38.0% (95%CI: 34.7–41.4%) of the children utilized health care for diarrhea, fever, and cough, respectively. Children age between 12 and 23 months (AOR: 1.58, 95%CI: 1.08–2.31), maternal education (AOR: 1.96, 95%CI: 1.34–2.88), and giving birth at health facilities (AOR: 1.49, 95%CI: 1.04–2.13) were found to be the determinants of health care utilization for diarrhea. Marital status (AOR: 0.25, 95%CI: 0.06–0.81), husbands’ education (AOR: 1.37, 95%CI: 1.01–1.86), and giving birth at health facilities (AOR: 1.51, 95%CI: 1.09–2.10) were factors significantly associated with health care utilization for fever. Children age between 12 and 23 months (AOR: 1.51, 95%CI: 1.03–2.22), maternal education (AOR: 1.70, 95%CI: 1.18–2.44), and giving birth at health facilities (AOR: 1.74, 95%CI: 1.23–2.46) were significantly associated with health care utilization for cough. Conclusions Low health care utilization for childhood illnesses was noticed. The health care utilization for diarrhea and cough was lower for children of ages between 0 and 11 months, mothers without formal education and home-delivered children’s. The health care utilization for fever was lower for separated parents, husbands without formal education, giving birth at home and from the poorest family. Programs to improve the educational status of a household are essential for better care utilization and children development

Prevalence and determinants of unintended pregnancy in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

BACKGROUND:Unintended pregnancy has significant consequences for the health and welfare of women and children. Despite this, a number of studies with inconsistent findings were conducted to reduce unintended pregnancy in Ethiopia; unavailability of a nationwide study that determines the prevalence of unintended pregnancy and its determinants is an important research gap. Thus, this study was conducted to determine the overall prevalence of unintended pregnancy and its determinants in Ethiopia. METHODS:We searched from Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library databases for studies. Each of the original studies was assessed using a tool for the risk of bias of observational studies. The heterogeneity of studies was also assessed using I2 test statistics. Data were pooled and a random effect meta-analysis model was fitted to provide the overall prevalence of unintended pregnancy and its determinants in Ethiopia. In addition, the subgroup analyses were performed to investigate how the prevalence of unintended pregnancy varies across different groups of studies. RESULTS:Twenty-eight studies that satisfy the eligibility criteria were included. We found that the overall prevalence of unintended pregnancy in Ethiopia was 28% (95% CI: 26-31). The subgroup analyses showed that the highest prevalence of unintended pregnancy was observed from the Oromiya region (33.8%) followed by Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples' region (30.6%) and the lowest was in Harar. In addition, the pooled prevalence of unintended pregnancy was 26.4% (20.8-32.4) and 30.0% (26.6-33.6) for community-based cross-sectional and institution-based cross-sectional studies respectively. The pooled analysis showed that not communicating with one's husband about family planning was more likely to lead to unintended pregnancy (OR: 3.56, 95%CI: 1.68-7.53). The pooled odds ratio also showed that unintended pregnancy is more likely among women who never use family planning methods (OR: 2.08, 95%CI: 1.18-3.69). Furthermore, the narrative review of this study showed that maternal education, age, and household wealth index are strongly associated with an unintended pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS:In this study, the prevalence of unintended pregnancy was high. Lack of spousal communication, never using family planning, maternal education, and household wealth level were significantly associated with an unintended pregnancy. This study implies the need to develop plans and policies to improve the awareness of contraceptive utilization and strengthen spousal communication related to pregnancy