Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem Service Value in Response to Climate Change in China

The assessment of ecosystem services provides an intuitive source of information on the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. The equivalent factor method was applied to calculate the ecosystem service value (ESV) in combination with net primary productivity (NPP) calculated by the process-based Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model. This study evaluated grassland ESV and its spatial evolution characteristics in China from 2001 to 2020 and revealed the impact of climate factors. For 2001–2020, the annual grassland ESV ranged from 1.17 × 1012 to 1.51 × 1012 yuan (renminbi, China yuan—the same below; $0.15 × 1012–$0.20 × 1012, US dollar), with an average of 1.37 × 1012 yuan ($0.18 × 1012). The spatial pattern of ESV per unit area of grassland was notably characterized by an increase from northwest to southeast. However, the value of grassland ecosystem services was relatively large (exceeding 10 × 106 yuan;$1.30 × 106) in northern and western provinces and was the lowest (less than 0.2 × 106 yuan; $0.03 × 106) in eastern and southern provinces. In the last 20 years, grassland ESV has increased in most areas of China and has decreased only in some western and northern areas. Compared with the first 10 years, the average ESV of grassland in most areas increased in the last 10 years, usually by less than 20%. However, it decreased in the western and northern parts of China, mainly concentrated in the alpine meadow and alpine grassland of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and the grassland around the Yili region of Xinjiang. Precipitation was the main regulating factor of grassland ESV and had a positive impact in 79% grassland areas, especially in northern China. Evapotranspiration and sunshine hours exhibited a marginal impact on ESV, but temperature and relative humidity had no significant effect. Overall, this study contributes to exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystem service value and the impact of climate factors in China, thereby providing reliable guidance for grassland ecosystem management

Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem Service Value in Response to Climate Change in China

The assessment of ecosystem services provides an intuitive source of information on the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. The equivalent factor method was applied to calculate the ecosystem service value (ESV) in combination with net primary productivity (NPP) calculated by the process-based Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model. This study evaluated grassland ESV and its spatial evolution characteristics in China from 2001 to 2020 and revealed the impact of climate factors. For 2001–2020, the annual grassland ESV ranged from 1.17 × 1012 to 1.51 × 1012 yuan (renminbi, China yuan—the same below; 0.15 × 1012–0.20 × 1012, US dollar), with an average of 1.37 × 1012 yuan (0.18 × 1012). The spatial pattern of ESV per unit area of grassland was notably characterized by an increase from northwest to southeast. However, the value of grassland ecosystem services was relatively large (exceeding 10 × 106 yuan; 1.30 × 106) in northern and western provinces and was the lowest (less than 0.2 × 106 yuan; $0.03 × 106) in eastern and southern provinces. In the last 20 years, grassland ESV has increased in most areas of China and has decreased only in some western and northern areas. Compared with the first 10 years, the average ESV of grassland in most areas increased in the last 10 years, usually by less than 20%. However, it decreased in the western and northern parts of China, mainly concentrated in the alpine meadow and alpine grassland of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and the grassland around the Yili region of Xinjiang. Precipitation was the main regulating factor of grassland ESV and had a positive impact in 79% grassland areas, especially in northern China. Evapotranspiration and sunshine hours exhibited a marginal impact on ESV, but temperature and relative humidity had no significant effect. Overall, this study contributes to exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland ecosystem service value and the impact of climate factors in China, thereby providing reliable guidance for grassland ecosystem management

Downscaling of Future Precipitation in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Using a Weather Generator

To project local precipitation at the existing meteorological stations in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future, local daily precipitation was simulated for three periods (2006–2030, 2031–2050, and 2051–2070) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. These projections were statistically downscaled using a weather generator (BCC/RCG-WG) and the output of five global climate models. Based on the downscaled daily precipitation at 174 stations, eight indices describing mean and extreme precipitation climates were calculated. Overall increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of the mean and extreme precipitation were identified for the majority of the stations studied, which is in line with the GCMs’ output. However, the downscaling approach enables more local features to be reflected, adding value to applications at the local scale. Compared with the baseline during 1961–2005, the regional average annual precipitation and its intensity are projected to increase in all three future periods under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projected changes in the number of days with precipitation are relatively small across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The regional average annual number of days with precipitation would increase by 0.2~1.0% under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, except during 2031–2050 under RCP 8.5 when it would decrease by 0.7%. The regional averages of annual days with precipitation ≥25 mm and ≥40 mm, the greatest one-day and five-day precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, are projected to increase by 8~30% during all the three periods. The number of days with daily precipitation ≥40 mm was projected to increase most significantly out of the eight indices, indicating the need to consider increased flooding risk in the future. The average annual maximum number of consecutive days without precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is projected to decrease, and the drought risk in this area is expected to decrease

Downscaling of Future Precipitation in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Using a Weather Generator

To project local precipitation at the existing meteorological stations in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the future, local daily precipitation was simulated for three periods (2006–2030, 2031–2050, and 2051–2070) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. These projections were statistically downscaled using a weather generator (BCC/RCG-WG) and the output of five global climate models. Based on the downscaled daily precipitation at 174 stations, eight indices describing mean and extreme precipitation climates were calculated. Overall increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of the mean and extreme precipitation were identified for the majority of the stations studied, which is in line with the GCMs’ output. However, the downscaling approach enables more local features to be reflected, adding value to applications at the local scale. Compared with the baseline during 1961–2005, the regional average annual precipitation and its intensity are projected to increase in all three future periods under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projected changes in the number of days with precipitation are relatively small across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The regional average annual number of days with precipitation would increase by 0.2~1.0% under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, except during 2031–2050 under RCP 8.5 when it would decrease by 0.7%. The regional averages of annual days with precipitation ≥25 mm and ≥40 mm, the greatest one-day and five-day precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, are projected to increase by 8~30% during all the three periods. The number of days with daily precipitation ≥40 mm was projected to increase most significantly out of the eight indices, indicating the need to consider increased flooding risk in the future. The average annual maximum number of consecutive days without precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is projected to decrease, and the drought risk in this area is expected to decrease

The Effects of Global Warming on Agroclimatic Regions in China: Past and Future

Agroclimatic regionalization is an effective way to utilize agricultural climate resources in a reasonable manner. Accurate and objective agroclimatic regionalization plays a great directive role in ecological layout and decision support for agriculture farming. The purpose of this article was to investigate the influence of climate change on agroclimatic regions in China. Following the same regionalization principle concept as the theory and techniques of agroclimatic regionalization, three agroclimatic regions, the Tibetan High Cold Region (THCR), Northwest Arid Region (NAR), and Eastern Monsoon Region (EMR) were identified in China. The changes in the three agroclimatic regions were analyzed from 1961 to 2020 in the past and from 2006 to 2060 in the future. Future changes in agroclimatic regions were estimated from 2006 to 2030 and from 2031 to 2060 under scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 for greenhouse gas emissions. The borders of agoclimatic regions had changed as a result of global climate warming and precipitation variability. There was a surplus in the geographical displacement and range of agroclimatic region borders in 1991 to 2020, especially when compared to those in 1961–1990. The TCHR exhibited significant spatial variation, with its northeast corner shifting nearly 170 km to the southwest. In the future, the area ratio of the THCR will be 26% by 2031–2060 under the RCP8.5 scenario, with the highest decline (1% compared to that in the reference period of 1981–2005), while under the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios it will stabilize the area ratio at 27%. The eastern boundary of the NAR will migrate south or east, while the center boundary will rise northward. Under all three climatic scenarios, the area ratio will be 25% (down 1%). The range of the EMR will expand. The area ratio of the EMR will increase by 1% under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios and by 2% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Overall, our study may facilitate an in-depth understanding of agroclimatic regions changes and thus provide a scientific reference for the distribution of agricultural production and sustainable development under climate change in China

Influence of Seasonal Air–Sea Interaction on the Interannual Variation of the NPP of Terrestrial Natural Vegetation in China

Based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectoradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data, meteorological observation data, multisource atmospheric circulation, and sea surface temperature (SST) data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we estimated the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial natural vegetation in China according to the CASA model and analyzed the linear trend and interannual fluctuation of NPP, as well as the spatial distribution characteristics of the annual NPP response to climatic factors. The obtained results revealed the impact of air–sea interaction on interannual NPP variability in key climatic areas. In China, the annual NPP of natural vegetation, linear NPP trend, and interannual NPP fluctuation showed significant regional characteristics. The annual NPP exhibited a significant increasing trend and interannual fluctuation in North China and Northeast China, with spatially consistent responses from NPP to precipitation and temperature. On the seasonal time scale, NPP in the key climatic area (105~135° E, 35~55° N) exhibited a strong response to both summer precipitation and mean temperature. In the summer atmospheric circulation, the circulation anomaly area is mainly distributed in the northeast cold vortex area in the middle- and high-latitude westerlies in East Asia and in the Sea of Okhotsk with dipole circulation. In the SST of the preceding winter and spring, the key SST anomaly area was the Kuroshio region, with an impact of the Kuroshio SST anomaly on the interannual variation in annual NPP in the key climatic area. The cold vortex in Northeast China played a pivotal role in the influence of the SST anomaly in the Kuroshio region on atmospheric circulation anomalies, resulting in abnormal summer precipitation in the key climatic region and affecting the annual accumulation of NPP of natural vegetation