Speeding Up the Product Cycle: The Role of Host Country Reforms

We study the effects of policy reforms in the South on the decisions of intrafirm and arm's length production transfers by Northern firms. We show theoretically that relaxing ownership controls and improving contract enforcement can induce multinational companies to expand product varieties to host developing countries, and that a combination of the two reforms has an amplifying effect on product transfers. Consistent with these implications, we find that ownership liberalization and judicial quality played an important role in raising the extensive margin of processing exports in China for the period of 1997-2007. Our findings imply that institutional reforms in developing countries can effectively speed up the product cycle.product cycle, ownership structure, contract environment, export variety, processing trade, China

Aggregate savings and external imbalances in China

Over the last decade, the internal and external macroeconomic imbalances in China have risen to unprecedented levels. In 2008, China's national savings rate soared to over 53 percent of its GDP, whereas its current account surplus exceeded 9 percent of GDP. The current paper presents a unified framework for understanding the structural causes of these imbalances. I argue that the imbalances are attributable to a set of policies and institutions embedded in the economy. Moreover, the accession of China to the World Trade Organization has dramatically amplified the effects of these structural distortions. I document major trends in aggregate savings, investment, trade, and net foreign asset positions in China, and explore options for policy reforms aimed at rebalancing the Chinese economy

Agriculture and Aggregate Productivity: A Quantitative Cross-Country Analysis

A decomposition of aggregate labor productivity based on internationally comparable data from FAO and Penn World Tables reveals that high labor shares and low productivity in agriculture are mainly responsible for poor countries current position in the world income distribution. Using a two-sector general equilibrium model, we argue that di erences in total factor productivity (TFP) and barriers to using modern intermediate inputs in agricultural production can largely account for the observed cross-country di erences in both the labor share and productivity in agriculture. Furthermore, our model with agriculture can account for 89% of the observed aggregate labor productivity di erences across countries, performing much better than a one-sector growth model with the same exogenous di erences in TFP.Agriculture, Land, Subsistence, Intermediate Input, Barriers, Productivity, International Comparisons.

Why Are Saving Rates So High in China?

In this paper, we define "The Chinese Saving Puzzle" as the persistently high national saving rate at 34-53 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the past three decades and a surge in the saving rate by 11 percentage points from 2000-2008. Using data from the Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA) and Urban Household Surveys (UHS) supplemented by the findings from existing studies, we analyze the sources and causes of China's high and rising saving rates in the government, corporate, and household sectors. Although the causes of China's high saving are complex, we suggest that the evolving economic, demographic, and policy trends in the internal and external environments of the Chinese economy will likely lead to a decline in national saving in the foreseeable future.demographic structure, aggregate saving, international comparison, household behavior, China

Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view

This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market developments in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing rational choices of individuals and equilibrating forces of the market. Empirical evidence based on multiple data sources fails to validate the arrival of the Lewis turning point in China, showing continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural and urban sectors instead. Consistent with the neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work when mobility restrictions were lifted, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment conditions, and returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest major progresses in the integration of labor markets in China

Modernization of agriculture and long-term growth

This paper develops a two-sector model that illuminates the role played by agricultural modernization in the transition from stagnation to growth. When agriculture relies on traditional technology, industrial development reduces the relative price of industrial products, but has a limited effect on per capita income because most labor has to remain in farming. Growth is not sustainable until this relative price drops below a certain threshold, thus inducing farmers to adopt modern technology that employs industry-supplied inputs. Once agricultural modernization begins, per capita income emerges from stasis and accelerates toward modern growth. Our calibrated model is largely consistent with the set of historical data we have compiled on the English economy, accounting well for the growth experience of England encompassing the Industrial Revolution

China's high saving puzzle

This paper analyzes the causes of rising savings rates for the corporate, government, and household sectors, which have jointly contributed to the upsurge in aggregate savings in China in the past two decades. Government policies to rebalance the Chinese economy are also explored

Speeding up the product cycle: The role of host country reforms

We study the effects of policy reforms in the South on the decisions of intrafirm and arm's length production transfers by Northern firms. We show theoretically that relaxing ownership controls and improving contract enforcement can induce multinational companies to expand product varieties to host developing countries, and that a combination of the two reforms has an amplifying effect on product transfers. Consistent with these implications, we find that ownership liberalization and judicial quality played an important role in raising the extensive margin of processing exports in China for the period of 1997-2007. Our findings imply that institutional reforms in developing countries can effectively speed up the product cycle

Expanding Export Variety: The Role of Institutional Reforms in Developing Countries

This paper presents theory and evidence showing that institutional reforms in developing countries can effectively expand their product varieties in export. Our model demonstrates that relaxing foreign ownership controls and improving contract enforcement can induce multinational companies to produce new products in host developing countries, and that a combination of the two reforms has an amplifying effect on the introduction of product varieties. Consistent with these theoretical predictions, we find empirically that ownership liberalization and judicial quality played an important role in raising the extensive margin of processing exports in China for the period of 1997-2007