Chikungunya Beyond the Tropics : Where and When Do We Expect Disease Transmission in Europe?

Chikungunya virus disease (chikungunya) is a mosquito-borne infectious disease reported in at least 50 countries, mostly in the tropics. It has spread around the globe within the last two decades, with local outbreaks in Europe. The vector mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) has already widely established itself in southern Europe and is spreading towards central parts of the continent. Public health authorities and policymakers need to be informed about where and when a chikungunya transmission is likely to take place. Here, we adapted a previously published global ecological niche model (ENM) by including only non-tropical chikungunya occurrence records and selecting bioclimatic variables that can reflect the temperate and sub-tropical conditions in Europe with greater accuracy. Additionally, we applied an epidemiological model to capture the temporal outbreak risk of chikungunya in six selected European cities. Overall, the non-tropical ENM captures all the previous outbreaks in Europe, whereas the global ENM had underestimated the risk. Highly suitable areas are more widespread than previously assumed. They are found in coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea, in the western part of the Iberian Peninsula, and in Atlantic coastal areas of France. Under a worst-case scenario, even large areas of western Germany and the Benelux states are considered potential areas of transmission. For the six selected European cities, June–September (the 22th–38th week) is the most vulnerable time period, with the maximum continuous duration of a possible transmission period lasting up to 93 days (Ravenna, Italy)

Campaign-style governance of air pollution in China? A comprehensive analysis of the central environmental protection inspection

Central environmental protection inspection (CEPI) is a major institutional innovation in China's environmental governance, but its effectiveness in improving air quality is still unclear. However, the effectiveness of CEPI is of great significance and can be regarded as an important reference for deepening the reform of environmental governance system in China. This article takes the CEPI as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and the difference-in-differences (DID) methods to examine the effectiveness of this policy. The study found that the first round of CEPI reduced the air pollution of cities in the inspected provinces in a short time. Moreover, this positive policy effect persisted in the aftermath of the inspection, but this long-term effect is mainly reflected in PM10 and SO2. Heterogeneity analysis showed that CEPI was only effective in reducing air pollutants of industry-oriented cities, cities in Central and Eastern China, and cities with large or small population size. The moderating effect analysis indicated that a healthy relationship (close and clean) between the local governments and businesses was conducive to reducing air pollution. The research confirmed the presence of “selective” reduction of air pollutants in the long run caused by CEPI, thereby providing new inspiration for the improvement of campaign-style environmental governance and the follow-up CEPI work

GaN-based series hybrid LED array : a dual-function light source with illumination and high-speed visible light communication capabilities

We propose and demonstrate a GaN-based series-driven hybrid light emitting diode (SH-LED) device in which broad-area and micro-LED components are interconnected for simultaneous illumination and high-speed visible light communication (VLC) applications. Through theoretical analysis based on an equivalent electrical circuit model and characterization from a fabricated exemplar device with blue emission, it is shown that SH-LEDs combine the advantages of broad- and micro-LED components by offering high direct-current (DC) optical power output and a fast frequency response. The application of this device to VLC is demonstrated through both the point-to-point and 9o divergence-angle coverage systems at 3 m transmission distance adopting a DC-biased optical-orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing modulation scheme. Compared with a point-to-point system using a single micro-LED, the one employing an SH-LED achieves the same data transmission rate of 3.39 Gbps at forward error correction (FEC) floor of 3.8×10-3, but the received DC optical power is improved by over 3 times. For the area coverage system, up to 1.56 Gbps data transmission rates at a FEC floor of 3.8×10-3 are accomplished by using this device, associated with over 4 times higher received DC optical power compared with the one using a single micro-LED

Evaluating the risk for Usutu virus circulation in Europe : comparison of environmental niche models and epidemiological models

Abstract Background Usutu virus (USUV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, reported in many countries of Africa and Europe, with an increasing spatial distribution and host range. Recent outbreaks leading to regional declines of European common blackbird (Turdus merula) populations and a rising number of human cases emphasize the need for increased awareness and spatial risk assessment. Methods Modelling approaches in ecology and epidemiology differ substantially in their algorithms, potentially resulting in diverging model outputs. Therefore, we implemented a parallel approach incorporating two commonly applied modelling techniques: (1) Maxent, a correlation-based environmental niche model and (2) a mechanistic epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. Across Europe, surveillance data of USUV-positive birds from 2003 to 2016 was acquired to train the environmental niche model and to serve as test cases for the SEIR model. The SEIR model is mainly driven by daily mean temperature and calculates the basic reproduction number R0. The environmental niche model was run with long-term bio-climatic variables derived from the same source in order to estimate climatic suitability. Results Large areas across Europe are currently suitable for USUV transmission. Both models show patterns of high risk for USUV in parts of France, in the Pannonian Basin as well as northern Italy. The environmental niche model depicts the current situation better, but with USUV still being in an invasive stage there is a chance for under-estimation of risk. Areas where transmission occurred are mostly predicted correctly by the SEIR model, but it mostly fails to resolve the temporal dynamics of USUV events. High R0 values predicted by the SEIR model in areas without evidence for real-life transmission suggest that it may tend towards over-estimation of risk. Conclusions The results from our parallel-model approach highlight that relying on a single model for assessing vector-borne disease risk may lead to incomplete conclusions. Utilizing different modelling approaches is thus crucial for risk-assessment of under-studied emerging pathogens like USUV

Chikungunya beyond the tropics: Where and when do we expect disease transmission in Europe?

Chikungunya virus disease (chikungunya) is a mosquito-borne infectious disease reported in at least 50 countries, mostly in the tropics. It has spread around the globe within the last two decades, with local outbreaks in Europe. The vector mosquito Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) has already widely established itself in southern Europe and is spreading towards central parts of the continent. Public health authorities and policymakers need to be informed about where and when a chikungunya transmission is likely to take place. Here, we adapted a previously published global ecological niche model (ENM) by including only non-tropical chikungunya occurrence records and selecting bioclimatic variables that can reflect the temperate and sub-tropical conditions in Europe with greater accuracy. Additionally, we applied an epidemiological model to capture the temporal outbreak risk of chikungunya in six selected European cities. Overall, the non-tropical ENM captures all the previous outbreaks in Europe, whereas the global ENM had underestimated the risk. Highly suitable areas are more widespread than previously assumed. They are found in coastal areas of the Mediterranean Sea, in the western part of the Iberian Peninsula, and in Atlantic coastal areas of France. Under a worst-case scenario, even large areas of western Germany and the Benelux states are considered potential areas of transmission. For the six selected European cities, June–September (the 22th–38th week) is the most vulnerable time period, with the maximum continuous duration of a possible transmission period lasting up to 93 days (Ravenna, Italy)

Robust Facial Landmark Localization Based on Two-Stage Cascaded Pose Regression

In this paper, we propose a two-stage cascaded pose regression for facial landmark localization under occlusion. In the first stage, a global cascaded pose regression with robust initialization is performed to get localization results for the original face and its mirror image. The localization difference between the original image and the mirror image is used to determine whether the localization of each landmark is reliable, while unreliable localization with a large difference can be adjusted. In the second stage, the global results are divided into four parts, which are further refined by local regressions. Finally, the four refined local results are integrated and adjusted to get the final output