A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models

This note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography.Early warning systems, bibliometric analysis

A bibliometric review of the research papers of the Central Bank of Turkey

This paper presents a bibliometric assessment of the research papers produced in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from 1988 to 2009. Concentration over subjects and the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification codes are provided in addition to the time distribution of bibliography cited in the research papers. Overall, it is observed that the examined series did provide an adequate pool of knowledge for both academics and the general public.Bibliometrics; Central bank research; Economic research

Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data

The effects of a specific religious tradition on the food prices establish the central theme of this paper. In specific, I investigate whether the month Ramadan has any effect on food prices. I perform the analysis under two alternative calendar conventions, namely the Gregorian and Hijri calendars. Under both conventions, the paper reveals the effects of Ramadan, yet these effects are better captured when the latter is used. This highlights the importance of the calendar choice on econometric analysis, on the basis of a simple-yet-genuine socio-economic exercise. Possible benefits from this exercise in pedagogical terms as well as in inflation forecasting are also addressed.Seasonality; Ramadan; Food prices; Calendar effects

Refinement of the random coding bound

An improved pre-factor for the random coding bound is proved. Specifically, for channels with critical rate not equal to capacity, if a regularity condition is satisfied (resp. not satisfied), then for any $\epsilon >0$ a pre-factor of $O(N^{-\frac{1}{2}\left( 1 - \epsilon + \bar{\rho}^\ast_R \right)})$ (resp. $O(N^{-\frac{1}{2}})$) is achievable for rates above the critical rate, where $N$ and $R$ is the blocklength and rate, respectively. The extra term $\bar{\rho}^\ast_R$ is related to the slope of the random coding exponent. Further, the relation of these bounds with the authors' recent refinement of the sphere-packing bound, as well as the pre-factor for the random coding bound below the critical rate, is discussed.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Trans. Inform. Theor

The third-order term in the normal approximation for singular channels

For a singular and symmetric discrete memoryless channel with positive dispersion, the third-order term in the normal approximation is shown to be upper bounded by a constant. This finding completes the characterization of the third-order term for symmetric discrete memoryless channels. The proof method is extended to asymmetric and singular channels with constant composition codes, and its connection to existing results, as well as its limitation in the error exponents regime, are discussed.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Trans. Inform. Theor