Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development

A non-variational approach to nonlinear stability in stellar dynamics applied to the King model

In previous work by Y. Guo and G. Rein, nonlinear stability of equilibria in stellar dynamics, i.e., of steady states of the Vlasov-Poisson system, was accessed by variational techniques. Here we propose a different, non-variational technique and use it to prove nonlinear stability of the King model against a class of spherically symmetric, dynamically accessible perturbations. This model is very important in astrophysics and was out of reach of the previous techniques

Playing the cards right: exploring the way leadership influences organizational citizenship behavior for the environment in megaprojects

Purpose: Organizational citizenship behaviors for the environment (OCBEs) represent a crucial element of environmental sustainability for a wide range of organizations. However, the leadership mechanisms underlying OCBEs are as yet unexplored, particularly regarding the delivering megaprojects. The paper aims to investigate how transformational leadership (TFL) and transactional leadership (TSL) styles shape the environmental commitment (EC) of subordinates, motivating OCBEs in megaprojects. Design/methodology/approach: Partial least squares modeling and hierarchical regression were performed on data obtained from 140 experts who have been involved in megaprojects. Findings: Both TFL and TSL styles are effective in motivating OCBEs, although the EC of subordinates partially mediates these relationships. The power distance (PD) orientation significantly moderates the relationship between TFL and OCBEs, with the relationship being more positive when the PD of subordinates is lower. Unexpectedly, a collectivist orientation (CO) was found to elevate the effect of TSL but weaken the effect of TFL. Originality/value: The mixed and contradictory findings regarding TFL and TSL styles are reconciled in the current study by integrating the contextual factors of PD and CO. The findings of the study shed new light on “playing the cards right” when using the leadership practices, i.e. how leadership can be better leveraged to cultivate subordinates' OCBEs. They also provide targeted guidance for shaping contextual factors to increase the environmental sustainability of megaprojects

Disruption of nNOS-NOS1AP protein-protein interactions suppresses neuropathic pain in mice

Elevated N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) activity is linked to central sensitization and chronic pain. However, NMDAR antagonists display limited therapeutic potential because of their adverse side effects. Novel approaches targeting the NR2B-PSD95-nNOS complex to disrupt signaling pathways downstream of NMDARs show efficacy in preclinical pain models. Here, we evaluated the involvement of interactions between neuronal nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) and the nitric oxide synthase 1 adaptor protein (NOS1AP) in pronociceptive signaling and neuropathic pain. TAT-GESV, a peptide inhibitor of the nNOS-NOS1AP complex, disrupted the in vitro binding between nNOS and its downstream protein partner NOS1AP but not its upstream protein partner postsynaptic density 95 kDa (PSD95). Putative inactive peptides (TAT-cp4GESV and TAT-GESVΔ1) failed to do so. Only the active peptide protected primary cortical neurons from glutamate/glycine-induced excitotoxicity. TAT-GESV, administered intrathecally (i.t.), suppressed mechanical and cold allodynia induced by either the chemotherapeutic agent paclitaxel or a traumatic nerve injury induced by partial sciatic nerve ligation. TAT-GESV also blocked the paclitaxel-induced phosphorylation at Ser15 of p53, a substrate of p38 MAPK. Finally, TAT-GESV (i.t.) did not induce NMDAR-mediated motor ataxia in the rotarod test and did not alter basal nociceptive thresholds in the radiant heat tail-flick test. These observations support the hypothesis that antiallodynic efficacy of an nNOS-NOS1AP disruptor may result, at least in part, from blockade of p38 MAPK-mediated downstream effects. Our studies demonstrate, for the first time, that disrupting nNOS-NOS1AP protein-protein interactions attenuates mechanistically distinct forms of neuropathic pain without unwanted motor ataxic effects of NMDAR antagonists

BRST Quantization of the Proca Model based on the BFT and the BFV Formalism

The BRST quantization of the Abelian Proca model is performed using the Batalin-Fradkin-Tyutin and the Batalin-Fradkin-Vilkovisky formalism. First, the BFT Hamiltonian method is applied in order to systematically convert a second class constraint system of the model into an effectively first class one by introducing new fields. In finding the involutive Hamiltonian we adopt a new approach which is more simpler than the usual one. We also show that in our model the Dirac brackets of the phase space variables in the original second class constraint system are exactly the same as the Poisson brackets of the corresponding modified fields in the extended phase space due to the linear character of the constraints comparing the Dirac or Faddeev-Jackiw formalisms. Then, according to the BFV formalism we obtain that the desired resulting Lagrangian preserving BRST symmetry in the standard local gauge fixing procedure naturally includes the St\"uckelberg scalar related to the explicit gauge symmetry breaking effect due to the presence of the mass term. We also analyze the nonstandard nonlocal gauge fixing procedure.Comment: 29 pages, plain Latex, To be published in Int. J. Mod. Phys.

Single chargino production via gluon-gluon fusion in a supersymmetric theory with an explicit R-parity violation

We studied the production of single chargino$\tilde{\chi}_1^{\pm}$ accompanied by $\mu^{\mp}$ lepton via gluon-gluon fusion at the LHC. The numerical analysis of their production rates is carried out in the mSUGRA scenario with some typical parameter sets. The results show that the cross sections of the $\tilde{\chi}_1^{\pm}\mu^{\mp}$ productions via gluon-gluon collision are in the order of $1 \sim 10^{2}$ femto barn quantitatively at the CERN LHC, and can be competitive with production mechanism via quark-antiquark annihilation process.Comment: LaTex file, 18 pages, 4 EPS file