3 research outputs found
A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka
Abstract Background Dengue is one of the major health problems in Sri Lanka causing an enormous social and economic burden to the country. An accurate early warning system can enhance the efficiency of preventive measures. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a simple accurate forecasting model for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Three time-series regression models were developed using monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed and retrospective dengue incidences over the period January 2012 to November 2015 for the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka. Various lag times were analyzed to identify optimum forecasting periods including interactions of multiple lags. The models were validated using epidemiological data from December 2015 to November 2017. Prepared models were compared based on Akaike’s information criterion, Bayesian information criterion and residual analysis. Results The selected model forecasted correctly with mean absolute errors of 0.07 and 0.22, and root mean squared errors of 0.09 and 0.28, for training and validation periods, respectively. There were no dengue epidemics observed in the district during the training period and nine outbreaks occurred during the forecasting period. The proposed model captured five outbreaks and correctly rejected 14 within the testing period of 24 months. The Pierce skill score of the model was 0.49, with a receiver operating characteristic of 86% and 92% sensitivity. Conclusions The developed weather based forecasting model allows warnings of impending dengue outbreaks and epidemics in advance of one month with high accuracy. Depending upon climatic factors, the previous month’s dengue cases had a significant effect on the dengue incidences of the current month. The simple, precise and understandable forecasting model developed could be used to manage limited public health resources effectively for patient management, vector surveillance and intervention programmes in the district
Entomological surveillance with viral tracking demonstrates a migrated viral strain caused dengue epidemic in July, 2017 in Sri Lanka.
Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral infection disease in Sri Lanka triggering extensive economic and social burden in the country. Even after numerous source reduction programmes, more than 30,000 incidences are reporting in the country every year. The last and greatest dengue epidemic in the country was reported in July, 2017 with more than 300 dengue related deaths and the highest number of dengue incidences were reported from the District of Gampaha. There is no Dengue Virus (DENV) detection system in field specimens in the district yet and therefore the aim of the study is development of entomological surveillance approach through vector survey programmes together with molecular and phylogenetic methods to identify detection of DENV serotypes circulation in order to minimize adverse effects of imminent dengue outbreaks. Entomological surveys were conducted in five study areas in the district for 36 months and altogether, 10,616 potential breeding places were investigated and 423 were positive for immature stages of dengue vector mosquitoes. During adult collections, 2,718 dengue vector mosquitoes were collected and 4.6% (n = 124) were Aedes aegypti. While entomological indices demonstrate various correlations with meteorological variables and reported dengue incidences, the mosquito pools collected during the epidemic in 2017 were positive for DENV. The results of the phylogenetic analysis illustrated that Envelope (E) gene sequences derived from the isolated DENV belongs to the Clade Ib of Cosmopolitan genotype of the DENV serotype 2 which has been the dominant stain in South-East Asian evidencing that a recent migration of DENV strain to Sri Lanka