Assimilation of satellite swaths versus daily means of sea ice concentration in a regional coupled ocean–sea ice model

Operational forecasting systems routinely assimilate daily means of sea ice concentration (SIC) from microwave radiometers in order to improve the accuracy of the forecasts. However, the temporal and spatial averaging of the individual satellite swaths into daily means of SIC entails two main drawbacks: (i) the spatial resolution of the original product is blurred (especially critical in periods with strong sub-daily sea ice movement), and (ii) the sub-daily frequency of passive microwave observations in the Arctic are not used, providing less temporal resolution in the data assimilation (DA) analysis and, therefore, in the forecast. Within the SIRANO (Sea Ice Retrievals and data Assimilation in NOrway) project, we investigate how challenges (i) and (ii) can be avoided by assimilating individual satellite swaths (level 3 uncollated) instead of daily means (level 3) of SIC. To do so, we use a regional configuration of the Barents Sea (2.5 km grid) based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) together with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) as the DA system. The assimilation of individual swaths significantly improves the EnKF analysis of SIC compared to the assimilation of daily means; the mean absolute difference (MAD) shows a 10 % improvement at the end of the assimilation period and a 7 % improvement at the end of the 7 d forecast period. This improvement is caused by better exploitation of the information provided by the SIC swath data, in terms of both spatial and temporal variance, compared to the case when the swaths are combined to form a daily mean before assimilation.</p

Barents-2.5km v2.0: An operational data-assimilative coupled ocean and sea ice ensemble prediction model for the Barents Sea and Svalbard

An operational ocean and sea ice forecast model, Barents-2.5, is implemented at MET Norway for short-term forecasting at the coast off Northern Norway, the Barents Sea, and waters around Svalbard. Primary forecast parameters are the sea ice concentration (SIC), sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean currents. The model is also a substantial input for drift modeling of pollutants, ice berg, and in search-and-rescue pertinent applications in the Arctic domain. Barents-2.5 has recently been upgraded to include an Ensemble Prediction System with 24 daily realizations of the model state. SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography are constrained through the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation scheme executed in daily forecast cycles with lead time up to 66 hours. While the ocean circulation is not directly constrained by assimilation of ocean currents, the model ensemble represents the given uncertainty in the short-term current field by retaining the current state for each member throughout forecast cycles. Here we present the model setup and a validation in terms of SIC, SST and in-situ hydrography. The performance of the ensemble to represent the models uncertainty, and the performance of the EnKF to constrain the model state are discussed, in addition to the model&rsquo;s forecast capabilities for SIC and SST.</p

Surface currents in operational oceanography: Key applications, mechanisms, and methods

This paper reviews physical mechanisms, observation techniques and modelling approaches dealing with surface currents on short time scales (hours to days) relevant for operational oceanography. Key motivations for this article include fundamental difficulties in reliable measurements and the persistent lack of a widely held consensus on the definition of surface currents. These problems are augmented by the fact that various methods to observe and model ocean currents yield very different representations of a surface current. We distinguish between four applicable definitions for surface currents; (i) the interfacial surface current, (ii) the direct wind-driven surface current, (iii) the surface boundary layer current, and (iv) an effective drift current. Finally, we discuss challenges in synthesising various data sources of surface currents - i.e. observational and modelling – and take a view on the predictability of surface currents concluding with arguments that parts of the surface circulation exhibit predictability useful in an operational context

Using peer advocates to improve access to services among hard-to-reach populations with hepatitis C:a qualitative study of client and provider relationships

BACKGROUND: Peer support programmes use individuals with specific experiences to improve engagement and outcomes among new clients. However, the skills and techniques used to achieve this engagement have not been mapped. This potentially restricts the development and replication of successful peer advocate models of care. This study explored how a group of peer advocates with experience of homelessness, alcohol and drug misuse made and sustained relationships with their client group. For the purposes of this project, the client group were located among a hepatitis C-positive cohort of people who have a history of injecting drug use and homelessness. METHODS: Five self-selecting advocates gave a narrative interview lasting 40-90 min. These interviews were double transcribed using both thematic analysis and narrative analysis in order to triangulate the data and provide a robust set of findings about the unique skills of peer advocates in creating and sustaining relationships with clients from hard-to-reach populations. RESULTS: Peer advocates build rapport with clients through disclosing personal details about their lives. While this runs counter to assumptions about the need to maintain distance in client-patient relationships, the therapeutic benefits appear to outweigh the potential costs of this engagement. CONCLUSION: We conclude the therapeutic benefits of self-disclosure between peer advocates and their clients offer a moral grounding for self-disclosure as a means of building relationships with key hard-to-reach populations

A combination of hydrodynamical and statistical modeling reveals non-stationary climate effects on fish larvae distributions

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Barriers and facilitators of adherence to antiretroviral drug therapy and retention in care among adult HIV-positive patients: A qualitative study from Ethiopia

Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been life saving for hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians. With increased availability of ART in recent years, achievement of optimal adherence and patient retention are becoming the greatest challenges in the management of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia. However, few studies have explored factors influencing medication adherence to ART and retention in follow-up care among adult Ethiopian HIV-positive patients, especially in the Amhara region of the country, where almost one-third of the country's ART is prescribed. The aim of this qualitative study was to collect such data from patients and healthcare providers in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 24 patients, of whom 11 had been lost to follow-up and were non-persistent with ART. In addition, focus group discussions were performed with 15 ART nurses and 19 case managers. All interviews and focus groups were audio-recorded, transcribed, and coded for themes and patterns in Amharic using a grounded theory approach. The emergent concepts and categories were translated into English. Results: Economic constraints, perceived stigma and discrimination, fasting, holy water, medication side effects, and dissatisfaction with healthcare services were major reasons for patients being non-adherent and lost to follow-up. Disclosure of HIV status, social support, use of reminder aids, responsibility for raising children, improved health on ART, and receiving education and counseling emerged as facilitators of adherence to ART. Conclusions: Improving adherence and retention requires integration of enhanced treatment access with improved job and food security. Healthcare providers need to be supported to better equip patients to cope with the issues associated with ART. Development of social policies and cooperation between various agencies are required to facilitate optimal adherence to ART, patient retention, and improved patient outcomes. © 2014 Bezabhe et al