Using Risk Assessment as Part of a Systems Approach to the Control and Prevention of HPAIV H5N1

Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies

Seasonal Oscillation of Human Infection with Influenza A/H5N1 in Egypt and Indonesia

As of June 22, 2011, influenza A/H5N1 has caused a reported 329 deaths and 562 cases in humans, typically attributed to contact with infected poultry. Influenza H5N1 has been described as seasonal. Although several studies have evaluated environmental risk factors for H5N1 in poultry, none have considered seasonality of H5N1 in humans. In addition, temperature and humidity are suspected to drive influenza in temperate regions, but drivers in the tropics are unknown, for H5N1 as well as other influenza viruses. An analysis was conducted to determine whether human H5N1 cases occur seasonally in association with changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity. Data analyzed were H5N1 human cases in Indonesia (n = 135) and Egypt (n = 50), from January 1, 2005 (Indonesia) or 2006 (Egypt) through May 1, 2008 obtained from WHO case reports, and average daily weather conditions obtained from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Fourier time series analysis was used to determine seasonality of cases and associations between weather conditions and human H5N1 incidence. Human H5N1 cases in Indonesia occurred with a period of 1.67 years/cycle (p<0.05) and in Egypt, a period of 1.18 years/cycle (p≅0.10). Human H5N1 incidence in Egypt, but not Indonesia, was strongly associated with meteorological variables (κ2≥0.94) and peaked in Egypt when precipitation was low, and temperature, absolute humidity and relative humidity were moderate compared to the average daily conditions in Egypt. Weather conditions coinciding with peak human H5N1 incidence in Egypt suggest that human infection may be occurring primarily via droplet transmission from close contact with infected poultry

Risk factors of poultry outbreaks and human cases of H5N1 avian influenza virus infection in West Java Province, Indonesia

Background: The purpose of this study was to determine the association of potential risk factors to the spread and maintenance of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in poultry and humans at the district level in West Java Province, Indonesia. Methods: The association of demography and environmental risk factors including poultry density, human density, road density, percentage of paddy field, and percentage of swamp, dyke and pond with both HPAI human cases and HPAI outbreaks in poultry were assessed using a descriptive epidemiological design. We also assessed the association of HPAI outbreaks in poultry with HPAI human cases. Poisson regression (generalized linear modeling and generalized estimating equations) was used to analyze the data corrected for over-dispersion. Results: There were 794 HPAI outbreaks in poultry covering 24 of the 25 districts in our study during 2003-2008 and 34 HPAI human cases involving 12 districts during 2005-2008. We found that two risk factors - poultry density and road density - had a statistically significant correlation with the number of HPAI outbreaks in poultry. The number of poultry outbreaks had a negative association with poultry density (29% effect) and a positive association with road density (67% effect). The number of human cases was significantly associated with the number of poultry outbreaks (34% effect), but with none of the other risk factors considered. Conclusions: We conclude that the most effective way to prevent human HPAI cases is to intervene directly in the poultry sector. Our study further suggests that implementing preventive measures in backyard chicken farming and limiting transport of live poultry and their products are promising options to this end. (C) 2010 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Risk factors of poultry outbreaks and human cases of H5N1 avian influenza virus infection in West Java Province, Indonesia

Background: The purpose of this study was to determine the association of potential risk factors to the spread and maintenance of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus in poultry and humans at the district level in West Java Province, Indonesia. Methods: The association of demography and environmental risk factors including poultry density, human density, road density, percentage of paddy field, and percentage of swamp, dyke and pond with both HPAI human cases and HPAI outbreaks in poultry were assessed using a descriptive epidemiological design. We also assessed the association of HPAI outbreaks in poultry with HPAI human cases. Poisson regression (generalized linear modeling and generalized estimating equations) was used to analyze the data corrected for over-dispersion. Results: There were 794 HPAI outbreaks in poultry covering 24 of the 25 districts in our study during 2003-2008 and 34 HPAI human cases involving 12 districts during 2005-2008. We found that two risk factors - poultry density and road density - had a statistically significant correlation with the number of HPAI outbreaks in poultry. The number of poultry outbreaks had a negative association with poultry density (29% effect) and a positive association with road density (67% effect). The number of human cases was significantly associated with the number of poultry outbreaks (34% effect), but with none of the other risk factors considered. Conclusions: We conclude that the most effective way to prevent human HPAI cases is to intervene directly in the poultry sector. Our study further suggests that implementing preventive measures in backyard chicken farming and limiting transport of live poultry and their products are promising options to this end. (C) 2010 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Antibody titer has positive predictive value for vaccine protection against challenge with natural antigenic-drift variants of H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza viruses from Indonesia

Vaccines are used in integrated control strategies to protect poultry against H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI). H5N1 HPAI was first reported in Indonesia in 2003, and vaccination was initiated in 2004, but reports of vaccine failures began to emerge in mid-2005. This study investigated the role of Indonesian licensed vaccines, specific vaccine seed strains, and emerging variant field viruses as causes of vaccine failures. Eleven of 14 licensed vaccines contained the manufacturer's listed vaccine seed strains, but 3 vaccines contained a seed strain different from that listed on the label. Vaccines containing A/turkey/Wisconsin/ 1968 (WI/68), A/chicken/Mexico/28159-232/1994 (Mex/94), and A/turkey/England/N28/1973 seed strains had high serological potency in chickens (geometric mean hemagglutination inhibition [HI] titers, ≥1:169), but vaccines containing strain A/chicken/Guangdong/1/1996 generated by reverse genetics (rg; rgGD/96), A/chicken/Legok/2003 (Legok/03), A/chicken/Vietnam/ C57/2004 generated by rg (rgVN/04), or A/chicken/Legok/2003 generated by rg (rgLegok/03) had lower serological potency (geometric mean HI titers, ≤1:95). In challenge studies, chickens immunized with any of the H5 avian influenza vaccines were protected against A/chicken/West Java/SMI-HAMD/2006 (SMI-HAMD/06) and were partially protected against A/chicken/Papua/ TA5/2006 (Papua/06) but were not protected against A/chicken/West Java/PWT-WIJ/2006 (PWT/06). Experimental inactivated vaccines made with PWT/06 HPAI virus or rg-generated PWT/06 low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) virus seed strains protected chickens from lethal challenge, as did a combination of a commercially available live fowl poxvirus vaccine expressing the H5 influenza virus gene and inactivated Legok/03 vaccine. The