The Child is Father of the Man: Foresee the Success at the Early Stage

Understanding the dynamic mechanisms that drive the high-impact scientific work (e.g., research papers, patents) is a long-debated research topic and has many important implications, ranging from personal career development and recruitment search, to the jurisdiction of research resources. Recent advances in characterizing and modeling scientific success have made it possible to forecast the long-term impact of scientific work, where data mining techniques, supervised learning in particular, play an essential role. Despite much progress, several key algorithmic challenges in relation to predicting long-term scientific impact have largely remained open. In this paper, we propose a joint predictive model to forecast the long-term scientific impact at the early stage, which simultaneously addresses a number of these open challenges, including the scholarly feature design, the non-linearity, the domain-heterogeneity and dynamics. In particular, we formulate it as a regularized optimization problem and propose effective and scalable algorithms to solve it. We perform extensive empirical evaluations on large, real scholarly data sets to validate the effectiveness and the efficiency of our method.Comment: Correct some typos in our KDD pape

A systematic review of the role of bisphosphonates in metastatic disease

Objectives: To identify evidence for the role of bisphosphonates in malignancy for the treatment of hypercalcaemia, prevention of skeletal morbidity and use in the adjuvant setting. To perform an economic review of current literature and model the cost effectiveness of bisphosphonates in the treatment of hypercalcaemia and prevention of skeletal morbidity Data sources: Electronic databases (1966-June 2001). Cochrane register. Pharmaceutical companies. Experts in the field. Handsearching of abstracts and leading oncology journals (1999-2001). Review methods: Two independent reviewers assessed studies for inclusion, according to predetermined criteria, and extracted relevant data. Overall event rates were pooled in a meta-analysis, odds ratios ( OR) were given with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where data could not be combined, studies were reported individually and proportions compared using chi- squared analysis. Cost and cost-effectiveness were assessed by a decision analytic model comparing different bisphosphonate regimens for the treatment of hypercalcaemia; Markov models were employed to evaluate the use of bisphosphonates to prevent skeletal-related events (SRE) in patients with breast cancer and multiple myeloma. Results: For acute hypercalcaemia of malignancy, bisphosphonates normalised serum calcium in >70% of patients within 2-6 days. Pamidronate was more effective than control, etidronate, mithramycin and low-dose clodronate, but equal to high dose clodronate, in achieving normocalcaemia. Pamidronate prolongs ( doubles) the median time to relapse compared with clodronate or etidronate. For prevention of skeletal morbidity, bisphosphonates compared with placebo, significantly reduced the OR for fractures (OR [95% CI], vertebral, 0.69 [0.57-0.84], non-vertebral, 0.65 [0.54-0.79], combined, 0.65 [0.55-0.78]) radiotherapy 0.67 [0.57-0.79] and hypercalcaemia 0.54 [0.36-0.81] but not orthopaedic surgery 0.70 [0.46-1.05] or spinal cord compression 0.71 [0.47-1.08]. However, reduction in orthopaedic surgery was significant in studies that lasted over a year 0.59 [0.39-0.88]. Bisphosphonates significantly increased the time to first SRE but did not affect survival. Subanalyses were performed for disease groups, drugs and route of administration. Most evidence supports the use of intravenous aminobisphosphonates. For adjuvant use of bisphosphonates, Clodronate, given to patients with primary operable breast cancer and no metastatic disease, significantly reduced the number of patients developing bone metastases. This benefit was not maintained once regular administration had been discontinued. Two trials reported significant survival advantages in the treated groups. Bisphosphonates reduce the number of bone metastases in patients with both early and advanced breast cancer. Bisphosphonates are well tolerated with a low incidence of side-effects. Economic modelling showed that for acute hypercalcaemia, drugs with the longest cumulative duration of normocalcaemia were most cost-effective. Zoledronate 4 mg was the most costly, but most cost-effective treatment. For skeletal morbidity, Markov models estimated that the overall cost of bisphosphonate therapy to prevent an SRE was pound250 and pound1500 per event for patients with breast cancer and multiple myeloma, respectively. Bisphosphonate treatment is sometimes cost-saving in breast cancer patients where fractures are prevented. Conclusions: High dose aminobisphosphonates are most effective for the treatment of acute hypercalcaemia and delay time to relapse. Bisphosphonates significantly reduce SREs and delay the time to first SRE in patients with bony metastatic disease but do not affect survival. Benefit is demonstrated after administration for at least 6-12 months. The greatest body of evidence supports the use of intravenous aminobisphosphonates. Further evidence is required to support use in the adjuvant setting

Are recent trends in poverty and deprivation in Australia consistent with trickle-down effects?

This article examines trends in social disadvantage in Australia over the decade to 2018 using two approaches: a monetary approach using poverty and a living standards approach using deprivation. We compare the two approaches, highlight their implications and assess whether the evidence produced by each is consistent with trickle-down effects. The estimates allow for variations in thresholds, the treatment of housing costs and relative and absolute measures. The findings indicate an overall decline in poverty that is dependent on the treatment of housing costs and a more consistent decline in deprivation but with little or no improvement for many experiencing poverty or deprivation. Poverty and deprivation among unemployed households were above those for people in other labour force states throughout the period and while these differentials have narrowed, the findings suggest that trickle-down effects did not reach many of those highly disadvantaged or are subject to long delays. JEL Codes: I32, E65, H5

The crumbling pillar: Assessing the impact of housing costs on recent trends in poverty and deprivation in Australia

Homeownership has traditionally been high in Australia, where a broad range of tax and social security concessions are designed to promote ownership and reduce housing costs for owners. These have allowed homeowning age pensioners to avoid poverty despite receiving a pension that is low by international standards among high-income countries. This approach provides the fourth pillar of the Australian retirement income support system, an example of ‘Australian exceptionalism’. We examine recent trends in two measures of social disadvantage—poverty and deprivation—focusing on the changing role and impact of homeownership and housing costs. The comparisons reveal important differences in how housing costs are incorporated into the estimation of their impact and in how different social groups have fared, although our findings also indicate that the groups with highest incidence of poverty and deprivation have benefited least from the gains that others experienced over the period examined

Comparing the Monetary and Living Standards Approaches to Poverty Using the Australian Experience

This paper compares the monetary and living standards approaches to poverty using Australian data for the period 2006–2017. The aim is to highlight the conceptual and empirical strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and identify the similarities and differences that emerge when both are applied to examine what happened over the period and to a limited degree, why. The acknowledged limitations of estimating poverty rates by comparing household income with a poverty line have to a degree been addressed by developments in deprivation research that have generated estimates that are more directly related to living standards, more democratic and more credible. But this approach also has limitations, so its growing popularity need not signify the end of poverty line studies. This paper compares the two approaches, with specific attention paid to ensuring that the estimates are internally consistent over time and comparable at a point in time. Both show a consistent pattern of modest improvement in social disadvantage over the period examined, but they reveal different aspects of change. The monetary approach highlights the role of housing costs in driving changes in poverty, while the more nuanced explanation generated by estimates of deprivation provides detailed insights. The results suggest that each has a positive role to play in better understanding the nature of poverty and identifying the factors driving change over time

Shared decision making interventions in mental healthcare: a protocol for an umbrella review

Introduction: Shared decision making (SDM) has been advocated as a key component of person-centred care and recovery from mental illness. Although the principles of SDM have been well documented, there is a lack of guidance about how to accomplish SDM in mental healthcare. The objective of the present protocol is to describe the methods for an umbrella review to determine the effectiveness elements of SDM interventions for persons diagnosed with a mental illness. An umbrella review’s key characteristic is that it only considers for inclusion the highest level of evidence, namely other systematic reviews and meta-analyses. / Methods and Analysis: Electronic searches will be performed in CINAHL, PubMed, Scopus, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, Ovid Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus and Ovid PsycINFO. Based on Joanna Briggs Institute recommended guidelines, review articles will be included if they were published between 2010 and 2021. This approach will help identify current and emerging evidence-based treatment options in mental illness. Included articles will be assessed for quality using Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 tool and ratings of the quality of evidence in each review. Presentation of results will align with guidelines in the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 statement. Findings will be stratified by mode of intervention and implementation characteristics and will inform development of SDM taxonomy in mental healthcare. / Ethics and dissemination: This umbrella review will focus on the analysis of secondary data and does not require ethics approval. Findings will be disseminated widely to clinicians, researchers and services users via journal publication, conference presentations and social media. The results will contribute to the conceptualisation and understanding of effective SDM interventions in mental healthcare and to improving the quality of SDM for individuals with a mental illness. / PROSPERO registration number: CRD42020190700

Social network interventions in mental healthcare: a protocol for an umbrella review

Introduction: Social networks (SNs) can play a crucial role in the process of recovery from mental illness. Yet there is no standard best practice for involving SNs to optimise patient recovery. It is therefore critical to explore the diversity of SN approaches in mental health, highlight gaps in the evidence and suggest future directions for research and practice. This protocol describes the methods for an umbrella review of SN interventions for the care and/or treatment of mental illness. // Methods and analysis: Nine electronic databases will be searched for the relevant journal articles: CINAHL, PubMed, Scopus, Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, Ovid Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Scopus and Ovid PsycINFO. We will include reviews which extracted information about the quantity, structure and quality of patient’s SNs as well as frequency of contact. The range of publication dates of the included articles will be from 2010 and 2021, as recommended by Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines. The Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 tool and ratings of the quality of evidence will be used to assess the quality of the included reviews. The results will be presented in accordance with guidelines in the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 statement. Findings will inform the development of an SN framework to guide the design and evaluation of psychosocial interventions. // Ethics and dissemination: This umbrella review will involve secondary data analysis and ethical approval is not required. The target audience includes clinicians, researchers and service users, who will be reached with tailored materials through journal publications, conference presentations and social media. The presentation of the results will provide a more complete picture of relevant evidence and explicit basis from which to improve psychosocial well-being for people diagnosed with a mental illness