Expansion of the Sahara Desert and shrinking of frozen land of the Arctic.

Expansion of the Sahara Desert (SD) and greening of the Arctic tundra-glacier region (ArcTG) have been hot subjects under extensive investigations. However, quantitative and comprehensive assessments of the landform changes in these regions are lacking. Here we use both observations and climate-ecosystem models to quantify/project changes in the extents and boundaries of the SD and ArcTG based on climate and vegetation indices. It is found that, based on observed climate indices, the SD expands 8% and the ArcTG shrinks 16% during 1950-2015, respectively. SD southern boundaries advance 100 km southward, and ArcTG boundaries are displaced about 50 km poleward in 1950-2015. The simulated trends based on climate and vegetation indices show consistent results with some differences probably due to missing anthropogenic forcing and two-way vegetation-climate feedback effect in simulations. The projected climate and vegetation indices show these trends will continue in 2015-2050

The influences of the galactic cosmic ray on the atmospheric ozone

The relationship between the yearly variations of cosmic ray intensity and ozone in the atmosphere, and the ozone disturbance initiated by the Forbush decrease of 1965-1976 is analyzed. The data on cosmic ray intensity were selected from the records of the super neutron monitor at Deep River station and the ionization chamber at Beijing station. Ozone data were taken from Resolute (Canada), Bismark (N. Dakota, USA), Kagoshima (Japan), and Kodaikanal (India). The statistical results show that ozone is prominently modulated and disturbed by the 11 year variation and the Forbush decrease in the galactic cosmic ray

Global vegetation variability and its response to elevated CO2, global warming, and climate variability – a study using the offline SSiB4/TRIFFID model and satellite data

Abstract. The climate regime shift during the 1980s had a substantial impact on the terrestrial ecosystems and vegetation at different scales. However, the mechanisms driving vegetation changes, before and after the shift, remain unclear. In this study, we used a biophysical-dynamic vegetation model to estimate large-scale trends in terms of carbon fixation, vegetation growth, and expansion during the period 1958–2007, and to attribute these changes to environmental drivers including elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter eCO2), global warming, and climate variability (hereafter CV). Simulated Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Gross Primary Product (GPP) were evaluated against observation-based data. Significant spatial correlations are found (correlations > 0.87), along with regionally varying temporal correlations of 0.34–0.80 for LAI and 0.45–0.83 for GPP. More than 40 % of the global land area shows significant trends in LAI and GPP since the 1950s: 11.7 % and 19.3 % of land has consistently positive LAI and GPP trends, respectively; while 17.1 % and 20.1 % of land, saw LAI and GPP trends respectively, reverse during the 1980s. Vegetation fraction cover (FRAC) trends, representing vegetation expansion/shrinking, are found at the edges of semi-arid areas and polar areas. Overall, eCO2 consistently contributes to positive LAI and GPP trends in the tropics. Global warming is shown to mostly affected LAI, with positive effects in high latitudes and negative effects in subtropical semi-arid areas. CV is found to dominate the variability of FRAC, LAI, and GPP in the semi-humid and semi-arid areas. The eCO2 and global warming effects increased after the 1980s, while the CV effect reversed during the 1980s. In addition, plant competition is shown to have played an important role in determining which driver dominated the regional trends. This paper presents a new insight into ecosystem variability and changes in the varying climate since the 1950s

Detectable MeV neutrinos from black hole neutrino-dominated accretion flows

Neutrino-dominated accretion flows (NDAFs) around rotating stellar-mass black holes (BHs) have been theorized as the central engine of relativistic jets launched in massive star core collapse events or compact star mergers. In this work, we calculate the electron neutrino/anti-neutrino spectra of NDAFs by fully taking into account the general relativistic effects, and investigate the effects of viewing angle, BH spin, and mass accretion rate on the results. We show that even though a typical NDAF has a neutrino luminosity lower than that of a typical supernova (SN), it can reach $10^{50}-10^{51}~{\rm erg~s^{-1}}$ peaking at $\sim 10$ MeV, making them potentially detectable with the upcoming sensitive MeV neutrino detectors if they are close enough to Earth. Based on the observed GRB event rate in the local universe and requiring that at least 3 neutrinos are detected to claim a detection, we estimate a detection rate up to $\sim$ (0.10-0.25) per century for GRB-related NDAFs by the Hyper-Kamiokande (Hyper-K) detector if one neglects neutrino oscillation. If one assumes that all Type Ib/c SNe have an engine-driven NDAF, the Hyper-K detection rate would be $\sim$ (1-3) per century. By considering neutrino oscillations, the detection rate may decrease by a factor of 2-3. Detecting one such event would establish the observational evidence of NDAFs in the universe.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in PR