A Theory of Dichotomous Valuation with Applications to Variable Selection

An econometric or statistical model may undergo a marginal gain when a new variable is admitted, and marginal loss if an existing variable is removed. The value of a variable to the model is quantified by its expected marginal gain and marginal loss. Under a prior belief that all candidate variables should be treated fairly, we derive a few formulas which evaluate the overall performance of each variable. One formula is identical to that for the Shapley value. However, it is not symmetric with respect to marginal gain and marginal loss; moreover, the Shapley value favors the latter. Thus we propose a unbiased solution. Two empirical studies are included: the first being a multi-criteria model selection for a dynamic panel regression; the second being an analysis of effect on hourly wage given by additional years of schooling

A Dichotomous Analysis Of Unemployment Welfare

In an economy which could not accommodate full employment of its labor force, it employs some but does not employ others. The bipartition of the labor force is random, and we characterize it by a probability distribution with equal employment opportunity. We value each employed individual by his marginal contribution to the production; we also value each unemployed individual by the potential marginal contribution he would make if the market hired him. We fully honor both the individual value and its national aggregate in our distribution of the net production to the unemployment welfare and the employment benefits. Using a balanced budget rule of taxation, we derive a fair, debt-free, and risk-free tax rate for any given unemployment rate. The tax rate minimizes both the asymptotic mean and variance of the underlying posterior unemployment rate; it also stimulates employment, boosts productivity, and mitigates income inequality. One could also apply the rate and valuation approach to areas other than the labor market. This framework is open to alternative identification strategies and other forms of equal opportunity

A Dichotomous Analysis Of Unemployment Welfare

In an economy which could not accommodate full employment of its labor force, it employs some but does not employ others. The bipartition of the labor force is random, and we characterize it by a probability distribution with equal employment opportunity. We value each employed individual by his marginal contribution to the production; we also value each unemployed individual by the potential marginal contribution he would make if the market hired him. We fully honor both the individual value and its national aggregate in our distribution of the net production to the unemployment welfare and the employment benefits. Using a balanced budget rule of taxation, we derive a fair, debt-free, and risk-free tax rate for any given unemployment rate. The tax rate minimizes both the asymptotic mean and variance of the underlying posterior unemployment rate; it also stimulates employment, boosts productivity, and mitigates income inequality. One could also apply the rate and valuation approach to areas other than the labor market. This framework is open to alternative identification strategies and other forms of equal opportunity

A Proposed Theoretical Model of Discontinuous Usage of Voice-Activated Intelligent Personal Assistants (IPAs)

Based on the contradictory phenomenon of rapid development of Voice-Activated Intelligent Personal Assistants (Voice-Activated IPAs) and discontinuous usage of it, this paper investigates the antecedents of discontinuous usage of Voice-Activated IPAs. We first analyze the topic of Siri usage discussion from Zhihu\u27s Q&A website, and then propose a theoretical model which hypothesized that discontinuous usage of Voice-Activated IPAs are affected by perceived ambiguity, cognitive overload, privacy concern, social embarrassment and lack of integration. It is hypothesized that perceived ambiguity will exert nonlinear impacts on discontinuous usage. Meanwhile, perceived ambiguity is also affected by level of personification in a nonlinear way. Scale development and data collection would be conducted for the future work. It is expected that the results our research could provide theoretical and practical implications for the design of Voice-Activated IPAs

Globalization? Trade war? A counterbalance perspective

The embrace of globalization and protectionism among economies has ebbed and flowed over the past few decades. These fluctuations call for quantitative analytics to help countries improve their trade policies. Changing attitudes about globalization also imply that the best trade policies may vary over time and be country-specific. We argue that the imports and exports of all economies constitute a counterbalanced network where conflict and cooperation are two sides of the same coin. Quantitative competitiveness is then formulated for each country using a network counterbalance equilibrium. A country could improve its relative strength in the network by embracing globalization, protectionism, trade collaboration, or conflict. This paper presents the necessary conditions for globalization and trade wars, evaluates their side effects, derives national bargaining powers, identifies appropriate targets for conflict or collaboration, and recommends fair resolutions for trade conflicts. Data and events from the past twenty years support these conditions

PREVENTION AND DRAINAGE TECHNOLOGY FOR ANTI-STUCK AND DISCHARGING DURING SHIELD TUNNELING IN COMPLEX RED ROCK STRATA WITH ULTRA-LARGE DIAMETER UNDER NORMAL AND PRESSURIZED CONDITIONS

During the construction process of shield tunneling with ultra-large diameter under normal and pressurized conditions, problems such as mud cake formation on the cutterhead, stagnation of mud in the chamber, blockage of slurry discharge chute, high cutterhead torque, and slow excavation speed are prone to occur. In severe cases, these issues can impact construction progress and pose a threat to construction safety. Taking the Guangzhou Haizhu Bay Tunnel project as a case study, this paper proposes prevention and drainage technology for anti-stuck and discharging during shield tunneling in complex red rock strata with ultra-large diameter under normal and pressurized conditions, focusing on mud slurry control, optimization of cutterhead flushing system, excavation parameter control, and cutter tool optimization

Crime and the Economy in Mexican States : Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012)

This paper studies the transmission of crime shocks to the economy in a sample of 32 Mexican states over the period from 1993 to 2012. The paper uses a panel structural VAR approach which accounts for the heterogeneity of the dynamic state level responses in GDP, FDI and international migration flows, and measures the transmission via the impulse response of homicide rates. The approach also allows the study of the pattern of economic responses among states. In particular, the percentage of GDP devoted to new construction and the perception of public security are characteristics that are shown to be associated with the sign and magnitude of the responses of economic variables to crime shocks